Things may not be in reality as they look on surface. Ground slipping underneath the feet or the arrogance is not working well for the American leadership, that is for Mr Donald Trump.
Americans involved in the Ukrainian war effort are embarrassed and dismayed by Donald Trump’s continuing pressures on Ukraine and think his administration’s latest peace plan is tantamount to backstabbing and another catastrophic failure of US foreign policy.
For long Trump has displayed his intent, He wants to present himself for the contemporary setting and for future history writers; that he shaped and reshaped the world. That he broke several deadlocks and that he heralded peace here and there.
But these are not working very well.
Doland Trump and also the presidents of China, Russia, Nigeria, Mexico and Argentina skipped the G20 Summit in South Africa.
All countries deputed other senior officials to attend, unlike the US which made a point of not sending anyone to the conclave.
The absence of leaders from so many of the 19 countries that constitute the G20, along with the European Union and the African Union, had threatened to rob the summit of its sheen.
However, that void also meant that other nations had a chance to step up. Narendra Modi and India as a new leader of global South did just that. Modi used the occasion to hold -- what they say - a blitzkrieg of bilateral meetings with several global leaders.
There were multiple setbacks for Washington.
One -- India, Brazil and South Africa made optimum use of the occasion and the forum IBSA was given a new boost. It turned out to be crucial and the first high-level IBSA meeting in more than a decade. And it may not be wrong to suggest that Trump's aggressive Tariff policy has pushed these three countries together.
Second - the Joint Declaration -- which was opposed by Trump tooth and nail.
Importantly, South African President also said that the adoption of the Declaration sent a vital "signal to the world" that the Multilateralism can and does deliver. It sent a message of "hope and solidarity across the world".
The Declaration had clear references to Energy transitions and Climate change - the subject matters -- Donald Trump did not approve to be in it.
And Third setback for Trump -- was a virtual rebuke and more than rebuke -- humiliation. As the G20 Summit closed, the South African president did not formally hand over the responsibility to host next year's summit to US.
For India and PM Modi on the other hand; the G20 declaration unequivocally condemning terrorism in all its forms was an important statement from the world’s leading nations.
The declaration also expended significant ink to address climate change and the role that the developed world must play in helping the Global South combat its effects. New Delhi's broader understanding of growth as a multifaceted phenomenon was also captured in the declaration. "These gains show that India can serve as both a bridge and a beacon in a divided world," commented an edit in 'The Telegraph', Kolkata -- a newspaper generally known for backing India's sickular brigade and for Modi-bashing.
Now on to the Peace Deal as proposed by Trump for Ukraine; probably Russian president Vladimir Putin is unlikely to retreat from his main goal of subjugating Ukraine and will instead push for a revised version of the current plan that more fully reflects Russia’s interests.
But if diplomacy stalls Ukraine’s position will worsen over time – especially if Trump follows through on threats to halt US military aid. Putin has already stopped short of confirming he would sign the deal.
Russia is actually having all the fun and Putin is waiting to see how the apparent disagreements inside the US administration over the plan unfold.
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, has stressed that the US “authored” the peace plan, after a Republican senator asserted that Rubio had distanced himself from the proposal and called it a Russian initiative.
Now what can be stated is that Russia is watching to see which faction inside the US administration prevails.
Ukraine’s hope, as in past rounds of diplomacy, is that with its European allies it can reshape the proposal into something acceptable for Kyiv and persuade Trump to back that version.
In the meantime, the US and Ukraine have worked on a 19-point peace plan that is markedly more favourable to Kyiv, but deferred the most politically sensitive questions for later.
Moscow is almost certain to reject the counter-proposal, returning the process to square one.
Ukraine is bound to face challenges to accept a few points of the proposed deal.
They also may jeopardize the future security of Ukraine and also Europe.
First is the demand to surrender the ‘fortress towns’ of the Donbas.
Many Ukrainians have died defending this as it acts as a bulwark between Russian forces and the plains leading west to Kyiv.
Second is the cap on the size of the Ukrainian army and the bar to NATO countries’ forces being stationed in Ukraine.
Third is the appropriation of Russian frozen assets for Russian-US investment ventures, from which the US would keep half of the ‘profits’.
Fourth is the declaration of an amnesty for both sides. As well as adding insult to injury for Ukraine, this would undermine the legal basis for seizing the frozen Russian assets by absolving Moscow of blame.
The plan contains some points in Ukraine’s favour. The blunt assertion that all children stolen by Russia will be returned.
There is also a declaration that Ukraine will gain early entry to the European Union. In that lies a potential contradiction with the other points in the plan: EU members make a commitment to each other’s defence, albeit in terms not clearly specified.
It is also unclear that Ukraine would meet normal requirements of EU entry, given the corruption scandal which has felled several of those close to Zelenskyy.
ends
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