Religions increasingly decide winners in India’s secular elections
(India’s electoral future is perhaps being shaped not by economic debate but by competing visions of what it means to belong—in a nation where belonging has never been easy to define, and is becoming harder still.)
Elections in India—home to more than 1.4 billion people—are perpetual, noisy, and fiercely contested. Every few months, somewhere in the world’s largest democracy, millions line up to vote. But increasingly, these contests are no longer about competing development models or rival economic visions. Instead, identity—especially religion—is becoming the defining axis of political mobilisation.
The recent election in Bihar underscored this trend. The coalition led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 202 of the state’s 243 seats, cementing its dominance.
But even as the BJP celebrates, far tougher battles loom across four major states: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Assam. The political fault lines in these regions reveal the complex, contradictory, and combustible nature of India’s identity politics.
South India: Ideology Meets Identity
In Tamil Nadu, both the BJP and the national opposition Congress and lack organisational depth. The state’s Dravidian political landscape has traditionally resisted the BJP’s Hindu-nationalist message. Yet the party continues to experiment with ways to break into the state.
Kerala presents a different paradox. Here, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)—long seen as ideologically secular and class-focused—has adopted what critics call “soft Hindutva,” a subtle accommodation of majority religious sentiment.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, now 80, has kept Congress out of power for a decade. His political acumen was evident in 2021, when the Left unexpectedly retained the state despite anti-incumbency.
Kerala’s Congress-led opposition is anchored by Christians—especially Catholics—and the Muslims led by the Indian Union Muslim League. The BJP remains weak, though it has made modest inroads among Christians and even in historically left-leaning Hindu strongholds.
Yet many Christians still view BJP outreach as tokenistic, contrasting the party’s assurances of religious freedom with frequent attacks on Christian institutions elsewhere in India.
The result is a strange tableau:
- communists courting Hindus,
** the BJP wooing Christians, and
Congress trying to hold together a coalition of minorities. Kerala’s ideological purity has long been a myth; now, even its secularism is being tested.
The East: The boiling port identify politics ::: Why Himanta has turned into a liability ?
One round of polls just got over in the province of Bihar in the east and it has been rather convincingly won by PM Narendra Modi's BJP and its alliance partners.
But tougher competitions lie ahead in next four-five months in four provinces -- two in south of India -- Tamil Nadu and Kerala and two others again in the east -- the states of Assam and West Bengal.
In Kerala; communists will be locked in a fierce battle against the Congress.
India's principal opposition Congress party of Rahul Gandhi (whose mother Sonia is an Italy-born Indian lawmaker for over two decades) often join hands at the national level with the Left when they have to fight Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
But in Kerala at the provincial level they are bitter rivals.
The Marxists are in power in the state under 80-year-old Marxist Pinyari Vijayan having been able to keep Congress at bay from the seat of governance for the last decade. In fact, in 2021 - the Congress though expected to come to power was denied the opportunities by sheer politicking of the Left parties.
***
India’s fiercest electoral contests lie in West Bengal and Assam—two states where religious identity is central to political strategy.
West Bengal, with an estimated 30–33 percent Muslim population, is governed by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool (grassroots) Congress.
Her populism and welfare politics retain deep support among poor Hindus and Muslims.
Yet she faces relentless attacks from the BJP, which paints her as excessively pro-Muslim. The party’s leadership has made West Bengal a top priority, after becoming the second-largest party in 2021.
Ironically, the Left—which governed Bengal for 34 years until 2011—and the Congress both failed to win a single seat in the last assembly election. Bengal’s politics has collapsed into a polarised two-way fight.
In Assam, the BJP has been in power since 2016 but now faces strong anti-incumbency. Assam’s diverse demographics—tribal communities, Hindus, Muslims, and Christians—make identity politics more unpredictable.
The state’s Muslim population was 34.22 percent in 2011 and continues to increase. Alleged “infiltration” of Bengali-speaking Muslims from Bangladesh remains a contentious electoral issue, especially in the tea- and coal-rich Upper Assam region, where economic stagnation breeds resentment.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, a firebrand known for hardline policies, faces mounting public dissatisfaction. Critics cite his government’s anti-Christian measures—law against magical healing and restrictions on beef supply—have alienated religious minorities and tribals.
Even the Nagaland assembly, in a state that is 90 percent Christian, criticised Assam’s stance.
Economic frustration is also real. “Upper Assam desperately needs jobs and functioning health facilities,” businessman Panna Lal Gupto told me in Tinsukia. “We have oil, tea, coal—but no development.”
There is even quiet speculation that Sarma could be replaced by Sarbananda Sonowal, a tribal BJP leader and architect of the party’s 2016 victory.
Congress senses an opportunity here. Led by Gaurav Gogoi, a prominent Ahom tribal politician, the opposition hopes to unify discontented tribals, Christians, and Muslims.
Religious Identity: A National Strategy
Nationally, the BJP’s strategy often revolves around splitting minority votes and consolidating Hindu support. In Bihar, it succeeded in dividing Muslim votes; similar tactics will likely shape campaigns in Assam and West Bengal. Whether they succeed in the East will determine the balance of power leading into the next general election cycle.
UCA News : India's future is shaped by competing visions of identity
In Kerala, the BJP is testing its ability to attract Catholics—a long-term project rather than a near-term expectation. Christian leaders remain divided: some favour engaging with the ruling party of the day; others argue the BJP’s ideological hostility to conversions makes genuine partnership impossible.
The upcoming set of elections will be a referendum not only on governance but also on the direction of India’s democracy. The contest is increasingly shifting from development to identity, from performance to polarisation.
Mamata Banerjee’s charisma might help her fend off BJP advances in West Bengal. Assam seems ready for an intense multipolar contest. Kerala is heading toward a complex ideological recalibration.
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