Importance or 'over importance' of Haryana politics yet again :::: Will outcome of assembly polls make or mar Rahul's future polity ?

 As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has higher stakes. The outcome in Jammu and Kashmir polls will have a mandate on what his government did on Aug 5th, 2019 and stated later including the renewed assertion on Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Elections are also due in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. 

But for Rahul Gandhi, the results of Haryana battle would have serious impact. In 2024 Lok Sabha, he did well to almost double the Congress tally from 53 to 99. This was his major win especially in the context of Lok Sabha polls and direct confrontation with Narendra Modi. 

Otherwise from 2014, Rahul has been at the receiving end and whenever Modi or BJP suffered electorally in some states - the loss was to regional satraps like Bihar's Nitish Kumar in 2015 and Mamata Banerjee in 2021 in West Bengal.  But honeymoon period of  June 4 (results of general elections) is practically over. 

However, it goes without stating that Rahul is unable to come out of the pre-Lok Sabha election mode and continues to attack Modi and even business tycoon Gautam Adani. 

But will that help him in the long run?

Therefore, election in Haryana and its outcome has become very crucial. Even for Jammu and Kashmir, Rahul is unable to work out seriously with a determined electoral strategy. Apparently, his ally National Conference leader Omar Abdullah is also unhappy to an extent that Rahul has focused his campaign chiefly in Kashmir valley where NC is strong enough.

The National Conference and even the analysts expected Rahul Gandhi to focus more in the Jammur region where Congress is in a position to give a stiff fight to the BJP.  Nevertheless, Rahul or Congress party do not have much to gain or loss in J&K.  

Here the players are NC, Mufti Sayeed's PDP and BJP and other smaller parties. The Congress is largely seen as an ally of National Conference only. But when it comes to Haryana, the main contest is between Congress and the BJP. 

Even in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the Congress is not the chief opponent to the BJP. Thus, there is always an added importance this year to Haryan elections and the politics around farmers, Jats, non-Jats, Dalits and wrestlers. 

But when it comes to Haryana politics, Kumari Selja factor is slowly bothering the grand old party. She skipped away from the release of the party manifesto show. 

And  later on being asked about 'missing' the manifesto launch, the Congress MP Kumari Selja said: "I was having some other work". Of course, she is not happy. 

Congress sources in Haryana say several of her people have been denied tickets. One of them is Ishwar Singh in Narwana. 

In broad sense, there are two-camps within the Congress - one the Bhupinder Singh Hooda camp and the other Randeep Singh Surjewala and Kumari Selja camp. But as the proverbial wheels within wheels; there are camps within camps. 

One got the glimpse of a clear division in the so-called perceived Surjewala-Kumari Selja camp in Narwana belt. Here this camp itself is vertically split between Surjewala camp and Kumari Selja camp. Surjewala's supporters are working overtime raising slogans repeatedly stating that Surjewala should be and will be made Congress chief minister.  

But the fact of the matter is as of now Hooda is the face of Congress and Rahul Gandhi has also given 'free hand' to Hooda even for selection of candidates.  

Hence if the Congress fails to make it a convincing win in Haryana, the Rahul balloon will be pricked yet again.