Basically 'reasons' for Congress getting humbled remain the same more or less. Some details can be, however, analysed. Some of it are lessons not only for the Congress but for any political party which takes people for granted. The last ball is important as happens with limited overs cricket.
Congress has a history of stealing defeat from the jaws of victory. Some factors have been already told and retold.
Refusal to accommodate allies, faulty ticket distribution and of course over projection of Bhupinder Singh Hooda leading internal squabbling.
“There was a total monopoly of one family on the Congress in Haryana,” said Sirsa lawmaker and a key Dalit face of Congress Kumari Selja.
The former Union Minister did not name either Leader of the Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda or his son Deepender, but it is clear what or where her tirade is directed towards.
“The people wanted the Congress this time. But the Congress became symbolised by only one family and this has been going on for the last 25 years and now there was a huge backlash," she also said.
Analysts say unlike the BJP, the Congress failure was also its leadership's inability to turn a local election into a 'national debate'.
The Congress overestimated its strength. That's something usual for the grand old party but it also underestimated the impact of independents and rebel leaders who contested against the Congress candidates.
Many Congress leaders said, "Ultimately people matter and it is the people who are making us win".
'Janta jita rahi hai" - was the refrain. A few others also said the BJP is traumatized.
The Congress went all alone. It did not want to oblige partners like the Samajwadi Party - which wanted to test the waters in south Haryana's Ahirwal belt.
The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP also wanted to contest five urban seats.
Over emphasis on Jat narratives backfired. The OBCs comprise 40% of the total electorate in the state, while Jats are at 22-25% only.
Hence, the counter polarisation (anti-Jat wave) which remained latent till the last moment damaged Congress prospects and helped the BJP consolidate its traditional non-Jat votes.
An 'Indian Express' article raises a few vital question. One of them revolving around the query -
"Did Dalit concern about ‘Jatshahi’, ‘kharchi-parchi’ damage Congress in Haryana?
"The Hooda-Selja tussle is not new. What is new this time is the massive non-Jat consolidation that seems to have taken place under Hooda’s leadership. Many Dalits were apprehensive about the return of what they called “Jatshahi (Jat dominance)” and the “kharchi, parchi” system of giving jobs to favourites.
The issue of corruption also came up repeatedly in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches," says the piece by senior journalist Neerja Chowdhury.
True, the divide between Jats and non-Jats is nothing new. It has been a political reality since the days of former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal, and was responsible for the BJP victories in the state in 2014 and 2019. But this time, the Jats who were divided between the Congress, BJP, and Jannnayak Janta Party (JJP) in 2019, were seen to be consolidating more behind the Congress.
The Jats were vocal in expressing their angst against the BJP for not choosing a Jat CM, for trying to bring the three farm laws (repealed in 2021), and the wrestlers’ agitation against sexual harassment. Of the 29 Jat-dominated seats — as per the Trivedi Centre for Political Data at Ashoka University — the BJP won 18 seats, the Congress nine, and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) two constituencies. This did not necessarily mean that the Jats voted in large numbers for the BJP. It could also mean that non-Jats in these constituencies with a sizable Jat population (above 20%) polarised sharply and voted for the BJP.
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The results also indicate that urban voters opted for the BJP, untouched either by the farmers’ protests, the wrestlers’ agitation, or the protests against the Agnipath scheme in the Jat community. Of the 25 urban seats in Haryana, which is 40% urban, the BJP won 18, the Congress five, and Independents two.
But this time, and this is significant, the BJP also made inroads in rural constituencies and this goes to show that a chunk of Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) may have gone back to the BJP in rural areas. Of the 65 rural seats, the BJP won 32, the Congress 30, and the INLD bagged two, while one went to an Independent. The 17 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) were divided almost equally between the two parties, with nine going to the Congress and eight to the BJP.
The Congress’s vote was concentrated and it won by large margins, while the BJP’s votes were spread out.
"The Haryana results need a deeper study to understand the message that the voters have tried to give: that those on the margins now want their place in the power structure and that the Congress has no option but to become an umbrella party again," writes Neerja Chowdhury and rightly so.
ends
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