US is jittery ..... Putin prediction about 'decline of US' could be coming true .... and Narendra Modi has made things more complicated for West

The angry headline in London's 'The Guardian' tells a story and a big picture message.

The headline ran: "Why is Modi sucking up to Putin? It’s simple and cynical: China and oil" 

The article says: "Modi’s courting of Putin has dealt another blow to the notion that Russia can or will be globally isolated. Indeed, the summit is a part of a broader trend. 

In the days before meeting Modi, Putin schmoozed with central Asian countries at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Kazakhstan (India has also become a member) where he exchanged views with a western sometimes-ally, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan." 

snap The Guardian/AP 

Before that, Putin had another meeting with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, whom he generally refers to as his “dear friend” (fully reciprocated by Xi); and welcomed Viktor Orbán, a self-appointed mediator in the Ukraine war, to Moscow. 

"It is almost as if there is a queue of international statesmen eager to knock on the Kremlin’s gates".

 The piece penned by Sergey Radchenko notes:  "As long as China is not actively invading India, he (PM Modi) has no reason to heed western reproaches about his loving embrace of Putin. Modi’s unspoken refrain to the west is this: mind your own business. He has a point. 

There is at least an even chance that the west will best India in a contest of hypocrisies. Regardless, Modi is trained on his goal to build up India’s stature as a truly global power and a key leader of an emerging post-western world.

Moreover, building bridges to Russia plays to India’s immediate strategic interest, which is to insert itself between Beijing and Moscow, and so obstruct too intimate a relationship between the latter two. 

"Modi needs Russia’s benign neutrality in any possible Indian conflict with China, whose time-honoured territorial claims in the Himalayas could well lead to a special military operation much closer to Modi’s home turf than a war in faraway Europe."

And then there is the oil. Since the war, and in particular since the western price cap on Russian crude, India has been a happy importer of underpriced oil, a circumstance that has clearly benefited Indian industry even as it filled Putin’s pockets with hard cash for the war in Ukraine. 

Estimated to have saved about $7.9bn just between April 2023 and March 2024, India has become the second biggest importer of Russian oil, just behind China, which has similarly benefited from steeply discounted prices. Delhi’s response to critics has been to say that by buying up Russian oil, it is helping keep global oil prices low.

The author of the article Sergey Radchenko is Wilson E Schmidt distinguished professor at the Henry A Kissinger Center, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Baltimore, and hence it should be given some credibility no doubt. But the western frustration about the developments related to Ukraine and the western bloc's failure to 'isolate' Putin is speaking out. 

"Putin clearly cherishes every opportunity to prove that his vision for the world – he predicts the inevitable decline of the US and the rise of multipolarity – has been spot on," the piece ran.

"But he (Putin) is also sending a signal to Beijing. By showing that it has other international partners – including a robust relationship with one of China’s greatest adversaries, India – Putin hopes to ensure China does not take its relationship with Moscow for granted.

The game is not without risks. China has enormous economic leverage over Russia, one that India comes nowhere close to matching. 

Nearly half of Russian oil and gas exports end up in China, which also serves as an essential supplier of industrial equipment and electronics. The Chinese yuan is now the main currency traded on the Moscow stock exchange.

Yet so far, Xi has been very patient with Putin, whom he values as an important strategic partner in the context of the rising threat of a Sino-American confrontation. 

Whatever jealousies he may have over Putin’s flirtation with Modi, Xi will probably put them aside in the name of his broader strategic purpose. 

He may even do a better job engaging Putin, for example by finally delivering on the promise to contract for another big gas pipeline from Russia to China, thus throwing a lifeline to the pitiful Gazprom that has lost access to its former European markets.

 Xi certainly will not put Putin under any stress over Russia’s continued war of aggression against Ukraine.

Modi, by contrast, has been rather critical of the Russian invasion. He even reportedly told Putin, during their get-together, that “when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and that pain is very terrifying”. 

Still, judging by the outcome of the summit, the Indian prime minister survived this pain, and found comfort in Putin’s friendly embrace.

US frustrated by PM Modi's Russia visit amid Nato summit: Report

Senior US officials were frustrated with the timing of PM Modi's Russia visit and the hug shared by Vladimir Putin which coincided with the Nato Summit called by Joe Biden, according to a report in Bloomberg.

During his two-day visit, PM Modi described Russia as India's "all-weather friend" and expressed special appreciation for his "dear friend" Putin. The Prime Minister, who was conferred Russia's highest civilian award, commended Putin for steering the India-Russia friendship to greater heights over the last two decades.  

"Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell spoke with Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra in early July hoping that the Modi-Putin encounter might be rescheduled to avoid coinciding with the Nato Summit," the report added.

According to the Washington Post, Campbell reportedly told Kwatra that the US recognises New Delhi's long-standing ties with Moscow and wants to prevent closer Russia-China ties. 

However, there is concern that PM Modi’s bilateral with Putin while Nato leaders gather in Washington could throw into disarray efforts to isolate Putin and plans to deepen US-India relations.

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