Will Modi replace Himanta by Sonowal ? Story of an Ultimate Game-changer !! :: In Assam Bodo People's Front (BPF) chief Hagrama Mohilary is now a new political protagonist !!

 Who disrupted BJP's 10-year winning streak in Assam?  

Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has attributed the BJP's poor performance in the recently held Bodp local polls to the "unfortunate death of Zubeen Garg", 

Even before the results were out, Himanta had stated: "The last 72 hours are crucial to every election. We couldn't campaign because of the sad demise of Zubeen Garg. 

We returned to Guwahati to facilitate the return of his body and arrange for the cremation."

After the results, Sarma met BPF chief Mohilary to congratulate him and even tried to suggest that in broad sense BPF is a BJP ally.

The fact of the matter is Hagrama Mohilary's decisive win in the 2025 BTC elections has thrown open a big challenge the BJP's decade-long dominance in Assam. 

By reclaiming 28 of 40 seats, Mohilary has reasserted the BPF as the key political force in the Bodoland Territorial Region. This belt has 15 MLAs and in 2021 polls - 12 for the NDA came from the region.

With Assembly elections just months away, B{F's comeback signals emergence of a strong anti-Himanta and anti-BJP narratives. 

Now we could be headng towards a potentially unpredictable battle for power in Assam in 2026.

Assam, where the BJP has of late enjoyed an uninterrupted electoral run since 2016, has faced the first defeat as Hagrama Mohilary's Bodo People's Front (BPF) swept the 2025 Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) elections. 

In 2016 assembly elections in Assam; the BJP not only could capture power in the state for the first time; the Team Modi could pass a powerful message that in the overall electoral game - there was more to come.

By Nov 2015, the BJP had lost in Bihar and the detractors claimed Narendra Modi's countdown had begun. That way Assam had changed the game in an ultimate manner. 

Just to recall, post-Assam win in 2016, the Modi had captured power in Uttar Pradesh, Manipur and Goa in 2017 and the ultimate 'new road map' of Indian polity was written.  

Such is the importance of Assam polls of 2016. In 2021, BJP returned to power fighting a fierce battle post-Covid19 and could stonewall the Congress party's revival journey. Worse for Congress; the grand old party in 2021 could not return to power in Kerala as well.

Modi's happiness was expected. 

Hence, BJP's defeat in BTC polls has possibly redefined some of the old tricks. Maybe the saffron party leadership and especially PM Narendra Modi is realising that sending back Sarbananda Sonowal as the 'tribal' chief minister will save the day for the Lotus outfit. 

Even otherwise there is enough negativity against Himanta in Upper Assam where there are about 30 seats comprising areas of tea growers and tribals.  

The Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) is an autonomous body established in 2003 under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. It was one of the long term decisions of the Vajpayee Govt.

It governs the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) in western Assam, comprising five districts of Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri, and Tamulpur. 

It's an 8,970 square-kilometre area and home to over 3 million people, predominantly from the Bodo tribe. The Council holds legislative, executive, and financial powers over 40 domains like education, land, and culture.

The Hagrama Mohilary-led Bodoland People's Front (BPF) won 28 of the 40 seats, up from 17 in 2020. The BJP, contesting independently for the first time, slumped to five seats from nine, while its former ally United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) managed seven, down from 12.  

The Tea-garden workers had overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in 2021 polls. 

Among the five guarantees the Congress had promised in 2021 was Rs 365 daily wage if voted to power; yet the tea-garden community overwhelmingly sided with the saffron alliance. In 2026 too; the tea garden workers are expected to back the BJP. 

However, some locals say the problem lies in BJP's electoral management. 

"Projecting Himanta Biswa Sarma may not help in Upper Assam at all. This Ahom-community dominated region has always preferred a Ahom ruler in Dispur. We are are very proud of our tradition and culture", said trader Akhil Kumar in Tinsukia.

Gaurav Gogoi's win in 2024 from Jorhat changed the entire political dynamics 

 

Prior ro 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Himanta Biswa Sarma played a game.  The Kaliabor constituency, which Gaurav Gogoi represented earlier, was rechristened as Kaziranga in delimitation. The BJP calculation was Gaurav will be compelled to move to Muslim-dominated Nagaon.

This would have been an easier battle for Gaurav Gogoi, son of Late CM Tarun Gogoi.

But Gaurav Gogoi took a calculated risk and surprised his political foe Himanta.

He could wrest the prestigious Jorhat seat from the ruling BJP by defeating Topon Kumar Gogoi with a margin of 1,44,393 votes. Both Himanta and Topon Kumar Gogoi were 'confident' of winning the election for the second consecutive term. 

The political dynamics were altered and hence the Congress is a party that is seen as someone which can get back its prominence in Assam. 

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