PM Namo furious ?? Real picture of 'Messy amalgam' of ultras and 'players in power politics' was never given genuinely ::: Why Ceasefire was allowed to create a 'Quasi-State entity' ??

After a long time, Defence Ministry apparatus have been asked to provide detailed information on situations on ground in Aruanachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Assam.

The coordination need not be at the level of Assam Rifles administration and Brigade Commanders in north east. It has to be also at the level of various agencies and at the 'ministerial level' for effective results. 

Incidents - Evolution Patterns

1990s --

* There were - 10 per cent internal factional conflicts

** 20 to 25 per cent ethnic violence and civilian targeting

*** 70 per cent military ambushes and attacks

2020s --

* 40 per cent Extortion and economic crimes, Mafia-type operations

** 15 per cent Ceasefire violations 

*** 20 per cent internal ethnic violence and civilian targeting

**** 25 to 30 per cent recruitment and training 

Ukhrul town : Manipur 

Latest info provided by some key central agencies have warned New Delhi  -- one of the dossiers say - "One primary and potent Naga underground group is likely to continue as a primary source of instability in Northeast India for the foreseeable future".  

The civil and military officials have started working on possible 'operational implications' and one big hint is that -- situation could 'return to' the 1990s level violence. 

As a result one of the 'immediate priorities'  is the "systematic" targeting of the revenue streams of Naga underground outfits.

Adequate steps also ought to be taken for 'better monitoring' of arms movement and recruitment and a systematic targeting of key development projects to "reduce" insurgent appeal. 

A few people in the know of things suggest --

1. Concentration of wealth in few hands (political stalwarts)

2. Rising inequality -- even at the level of districts 

and 3. Joblessness have triggered unease and provide fodders to the insurgent groups.

 

The social and political issues should be handled the manner they deserve to be handled. 

One source commented:  How long can we allow an administration that either

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 "pretends" not to see reason or identify the real problems or are directly responsible for pandering those. 

An overwhelming 'discontent' among youth is a matter of deep concern, analysts have said. 

The Govt's own understanding is that 'things' related to Naga peace package and Solution have been deliberately delayed. 

"Some organisations and one or two particular ones threatening to terminate the ceasefire of 1997 shows they are willing for return to violence... But they can potentially evolve towards more sophisticated terror/violence operations is a matter of deep concern".

The reports reaching higher ups in Delhi stated -- "The failure to resolve core political demands on issues of symbols/flag and territory means the fundamental conflict remains unresolved despite talks of last 28 years".  

Naga militants in a designated camp

F

Friendly Soldiers of Ceasefire and Blogger 

Overall, the north east region faces a different set of threats and opportunities. But - sources analyse - that things get murkier when it comes to 'unsettled' Naga peace talks and much disturbing developments in Manipur 2023 and no sign of tangible progress by those who are expected to deliver on Naga peace talks.  

"Why higher ups are anguished .... because the concerned leadership is not only failing to deliver despite enough time given .... the authorities seem to be paving the way for bigger strikes by inimical forces," an informed source alerted.

History - they say - often repeats. 

But History also expects 'miracle' from small and timid people. Hence - the results many times are of utter failure.

Is somebody encouraging 'fringe anti-India' power play is a big question people are whispering around.

Another finding is that the direct military confrontation has decreased and is almost none in some geographical areas; but it is a fact one Naga underground group has transformed into a 'quasi-state' entity with international presence as well as good money.

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Nagaland Govt employees have to pay - 12 to 22 percent salary deduction at source.

 Some departtments - cough up 2 to 10 percent of budget as Sovereignty tax

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This has enhanced continued recruitment capabilities of ultras, the source pointed out. 

Data from pre-ceasefire period

NSCN-IM cadres and gunmen killed 100 plus between 1988 and 1997

Civilians - 500 killined/eliminated including in a few ethnic massacre

** Security forces killed - 300  

Some more data and other info being  collaborated. 

Ends