"We have to understand that Myanmar’s crisis is not just an internal struggle for territorial control, but it is also a proxy battleground for both regional and global powers.
The real battle is for international legitimacy, whether the junta remains in power or Myanmar’s future will be shaped by the National Unity Government (NUG) and its bid for global recognition," says Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (Retd).
In an article for Myanmar's popular periodical 'Irrawaddy', he says:
"Myanmar’s history has been defined by cycles of military rule, brief democratic openings and prolonged conflict. The military’s claims of electoral fraud in the 2020 elections provided them a pretext for the coup.
The coup led by General Min Aung Hlaing crushed hopes for democratic consolidation. The move triggered mass protests, civil disobedience and armed resistance leading to an all-out civil war.
The military, thus, responded with severe crackdowns with mass arrests and extrajudicial killings. Cities turned into battlegrounds and rural areas became resistance strongholds.
"The junta is now engaged in full-scale warfare with the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and the ethnic fighters like the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army and Karen National Union. However, now the military junta is losing its grip over most of Myanmar.
The junta’s inability to govern effectively, coupled with international sanctions, has only further emboldened the resistance forces."
He notes that - Myanmar's strategic location makes it a "crucial player" in Indo-Pacific security, trade and energy corridors.
"So, the question now remains: Who holds the key to Myanmar’s future? Interestingly, China is very smartly playing both sides, ensuring that its strategic projects remain intact. While China maintains ties with the military junta, it is also hedging its bets by engaging with ethnic armed groups to safeguard its investments.
On this backdrop Gen Krishna says, "China remains Myanmar’s biggest external player, balancing its economic interests and strategic ambitions.
China officially backs the military junta to safeguard its investments made in Myanmar, but at the same time it is also covertly supporting the ethnic rebel groups to ensure its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, including access to the Indian Ocean, remain secure.
This dual strategy, thus, clearly demonstrates that regardless of who prevails in Myanmar, China’s influence will remain intact."
As far as India is concerned, he says the development efforts in this region have hit US$2 billion, majorly in grants.
"Major projects include the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project, the Border Area Development Program in Chin State, and capacity-building assistance in setting up institutions for higher learning and research.
These major projects have taken a bad hit, apart from other prevailing worrisome border security issues.
"India’s engagement with the Southeast Asian region continues through the maritime domain, but trade, cultural and people-to-people exchanges via land routes have taken a back seat due to the ongoing armed conflict between the junta and resistance forces and ethnic armed groups.
"We have to, therefore, understand that Myanmar’s crisis is not just an internal struggle for territorial control, but it is also a proxy battleground for both regional and global powers.
The real battle is for international legitimacy, whether the junta remains in power or Myanmar’s future will be shaped by the National Unity Government (NUG) and its bid for global recognition".
He also dwells on the US role and underlines that :
"In the complex landscape of South Asia, the United States appears to be pursuing a strategy that involves establishing controlled regimes in both Myanmar and Bangladesh to further its interests, essentially as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region.
This approach aims to create a political environment that can effectively manage the dynamics of Chinese expansion".
In the context of Bangladesh, Gen Krishna points out -
"While Myanmar burns, on the other hand Bangladesh’s shift towards a more hardcore Islamic identity is turning into a quieter yet equally concerning situation for India.
Sheikh Hasina tried her best to maintain a complex relationship with Islamist groups and contained the terrorist groups.
Now, there is a growing influence of hardline Islamic preachers on social media platforms. Radicalization fueled by online propaganda and extremist narratives has led to an increase in intolerance toward secular and liberal voices in Bangladesh.
"We have noticed that bloggers, writers and activists critical of Islamism have been increasingly targeted and even assassinated," he notes.
ends
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