Israel-Iran battle may be a symptom of the times....
New Delhi has to pull up sleeves !!
Arakan Army has seized "control" of 14 out of 17 townships .... Myanmar junta seeking Russian help !!
It all 'revived' in early 2025.
Top Myanmar military junta commanders and Russian officials met at Naypyitaw on Feb 23rd - 2025 and agreed to cooperate on investment in a Special Economic Zone also including the construction of a new port.
In March, Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing traveled to Moscow and signed an agreement with Russia on the development of a 110 MW nuclear reactor in Myanmar.
While India needs to be cautious while treading path; for its part China too is not really pleased with those developments.
Myanmar's geo-strategic location can never be underestimated. With over 2,000 kilometers of coastline along the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, proximity to the western entrance of the Malacca Strait, and a direct linkage to the Indian Ocean, Myanmar is a geographically significant country.
It is also the more a vital geo-strategic country for two Asian giants - India and China.
Experts say this is why right from the beginning; the British colonial masters and the Japanese during World War II struggled hard to control Myanmar.
Modern-day China and India are actually unthinkable without due importance for Myanmar and a friendly ties with it. The fact that Myanmar is in turmoil after Covid19 and later after the coup make it more significant for New Delhi as well as Beijing.
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| Longwa in Nagaland shares border and 'backyards and kitchen with Myanmar |
Since 1970s and 1980s -- each decade or 15 years or so has contributed an event or two episodes those have changed the scenario in Myanmar. It is no longer just an army-ruled nation. It is a nation which can help tilt the balance either way. Thus, even Americans have increased their interests on Myanmar yet again.
Chinese displeasure with Russian activities in Myanmar came out in the open in August last year. A Chinese-language website called 'One Guide' claimed that the junta may turn to the infamous Russian Wagner Group of state-sponsored mercenaries for help in its wars against armed groups.
Obviously the prediction has come true. China and Russia may have a common enemy today — the West — but they are not natural allies. In the context of India too; China is hardly an ally. Thus in more ways than RIC - Russia, India and China as a bloc will play an important role vis-a-vis the Europe-US axis.
In the context of the coup in Myanmar, New Delhi has been making a tightrope walk. It favours democracy but it is never in confrontation with the military commanders in power. New Delhi continues to give importance to its Neighbourhood First policy and India's Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan visited in 2021.
Issues relating to humanitarian support to Myanmar, security and India-Myanmar border concerns, and the political situation in Myanmar are always discussed in a very cordial atmosphere.
The success of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Act East Policy' also has a special significance to Myanmar and India's northeastern region.
The Myanmar military had in effect decided in the 1990s to reach out to Russia to counterbalance its then overwhelming dependence on China. Since then, Russia-Myanmar relations have flourished. Russia has become a major arms supplier, and Myanmar cadets have gone to Russia for training.
Blogger and Longwa village Aung ...the House is exactly on the borders
Now at the global level, the Americans are interested for both Myanmar and Bangladesh. It goes without stating the present day US is isolated from reality. It's a global power but NOT the supper it used to be once. In 2025, America is certainly and deeply troubled at heart.
It is also at odds with its head - the brain. The world is bleeding today and many feel Donald Trump has not done anything so far to calm the tense atmosphere.
Well, any wise man will believe that enormous power in the 'unsure hands' of a person can be dangerous. It is also the more a serious matter that the person in debate is not at peace with himself.
Thanks to Trump, the Indo-US relations could be 'rebooted' anytime. All the hard works that probably started well under Bill Clinton in Washington and Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Delhi are now almost destroyed.
The ethnic Arakan Army (AA) has achieved major gains since launching its Rakhine offensive in November 2023, seizing control of 14 out of 17 townships in the western state. Of the three townships still under junta control, battles are ongoing in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu while Manaung is the only township where clashes have not been reported.
The AA has also captured territory along the Naf River, including Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Chin State’s Paletwa Township, effectively securing the entire border with India and Bangladesh. This military achievement has led to notable political shifts:
With the AA now in full control of the borders, both the Indian and Bangladeshi governments have had to engage with the ethnic army while stopping short of officially recognizing it. Bangladesh is in direct contact with the AA.
India is reportedly engaging through the Mizoram state government.
The fact of the matter is in today's world everyone is getting disenchanted. People do not probably trust their leaders.
But the real worrisome question is what will this wave of indifference and disenchantment leave behind.
ends
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