The BJP is more than serious and sincere for a fight in Assam. The sincerity is not out of any choice. It is because the competition is stiff.
To start with in Lower Assam; the Lotus party is gearing up for massive anti incumbency factors to work against it and against sitting MLAs.
Hence, a tentative list has been prepared. And these are early days but 'feedback' channel is on.
Therefore, possibilities are there that the BJP may have to replace its candidates in the region including Gauhati West where Ramendra Narayan Kalita had won in 2021.
In Gauhati East, sources suggest Siddhartha Bhattacharya may be fielded again. It is altogether a different matter that Siddhartha had won the seat for the saffron outfit twice - 2016 and 2021.
Gauhati East has been like a political barometer even in the past.
In 1996, Biraj Kumar Sarma of Asom Gana Parishadhad snatched the seat from Congress. In 2001, Pankaj Bora of Congress got it back for the grand old party.
In 2006 too, Robin Bordoloi had retained the seat for the Congress. He repeated the success tale even in 2011.
The BJP may replace MLAs in Bijni --- Ajoy Kumar Ray, Palasbari - Hemanga Thakuria, Rangia -- Bhabesh Kalita, Nalbari - Jayanta Malla Baruah and also Rangapara - Krishna Kamal Tanti.
The Congress workers are also enthusiastic to make a come back and they got a booster after appointment of Gaurav Gogoi as pradesh Congress chief.
However, it is also true that the Congress lacks organisational strength.
But sidelining of "original BJP leaders and karyakartas" and importance given to ex-Congress leaders who joined BJP after 2016 may work against the Lotus party. In many constituencies across three regions - the Barak Valley, the Upper Assam and also Lower Assam, original and sincere BJP workers and leaders are frustrated and disillusioned.
"This anguish is quite serious and mere lip-service from Delhi may not help change the perception that the BJP has been hijacked by power brokers and ex-Congress leaders," says Silchar-based educationist Susanta Dhar.
There are other issues too.
The Upper Assam is rich in Tea, Oil and Coal .. but yet Joblessness haunts the region. The Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has sensed that well and has hence made Dibrugarh the second capital. Offices are already functioning and even cabinet meeting has been held.
Himanta may also face some "Negative consequences" of delimitation. There is also a large scale allegation of 'absence' of appropriate representation in government jobs and contracts.
In some areas, the Congress is slowly picking up issues such as neglect of land rights issues.
Congress leader Rajesh Sethi says: "The Congress party is receiving significant support in Assam. We will do magic in six Upper Assam districts where the new pradesh Congress president Gaurav Gogoi and his late father Tarun Gogoi commands immense respect and political backing".
The Ahom community is the dominant population in Upper Assam and they will spoil the game of "over ambitious and highly corrupt Himanta regime", said a Congress leader in Tinsukia in Upper Assam.
Priyanka Gandhi during 2021 campaign
Assam has a substantial minority population (approximately 32%) and the Muslims would always prefer to vote against the BJP.
Moreover, Congress party's in-house analyses say there has been a substantial decline of the AIUDF (led by Badruddin Ajmal). Voters also realise that voting against a state-based party such as AIUDF ultimately help only the BJP.
Thus, there is a perception that Muslim voters are gradually moving towards the Congress party.
In 2001, six districts in Assam were Muslim dominated, but in 2011 it increased to nine. This was based on the official census.
The Muslim majority districts in Assam include Barpeta, Dhubri, Karimganj, Goalpara, Darrang, Bongaigaon, Hailakandi, Nagaon and Morigaon.
The Hindu-Muslim relationship and the related socio-political rows are the flavours of the season, one may say every season in Assam. And it has been a trend since the 1970s. They are more intense in Assam because there was a history of 'Bongali Kheda' stir in the 1970s.
In Assam, the visible demographic transition in some pockets — closer to the international border with Bangladesh and some even away from the border — always sparked off the debate over the Bangladeshi influx.
Nevertheless, it should be kept in mind that in the 1970s during the peak of the students’ agitation against the 'influx of Bangladeshis' even Hindu Bengalis were at times at the receiving end of the local anguish.
Even in 2012, Assam witnessed a bloodbath owing to conflicts of interest between Bodo tribals and Bengali Muslims. The clashes and subsequent remarks from mainland politicians including from BJP and from the likes of Hyderabad-based Asaduddin Owaisi aroused passions.
In Silchar-Cachar belt, the BJP is popular and this was well reflected in the panchayat elections. Sociologists in Barak valley say sensing the general mood even Muslims voted for the Lotus party in panchayat polls and they may do so again in 2026.
After the exit of Sushmita Dev, former MP, from Congress, the grand old party does not have a presentable face. But some sections of Bengali-speaking Hindus in the Bengali-dominated Cachar region (or Barak valley) are dissatisfied with the current BJP leadership and the state government under Himanta.
"We did not get much," is a common refrain. But there is a cautious line - we should not desert Narendra Modi when he has done so much for the nation and Hindus.
"Without BJP at the helm in Delhi, Bangladesh and Bangladeshis would have taken over Silchar too. You must visit Badarpur, it is semi-Bangladesh for all practical prupose and the BJP is not doing much about it," complains Rudranil Sen, a trader in Silchar.
However, analysts also maintain the Upper caste Hindus among Bengalis and Assamese people will not desert BJP so easily.
But it is also true the Congress is getting "favourable response" especially in Jorhat and Titabar regions in the name of Ahom pride.
The BJP is practically clueless to handle it. Moreover, some say Himanta's allegetion against Gaurav's wife is not a public issue at all. There is another factor which Congress leaders are trying to ignore.
With or without Gaurav Gogoi as pradesh president Titabar has been a Congress stronghold. Gaurav's father Tarun Gogoi (former CM) represented Titabar in 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Hence, the hype about Congress revival based on "good response" in Titabar-Jorhat belt is meaningless.
Sources maintain "tricky region" will be Shivsagar area ... where voters have in the past voted against the ruling party in the state.
So essentially; Congress may also do well in Shivsagar areas with or without Gogoi/Ahom factor.
The BJP is also trying to blow up issues such as Love Jehad and influx of Bengali Muslims.
Late Tarun Gogoi and Congress party are being accused of going soft on Bangladeshi influx. But it is also a fact that while illegal Bangladeshi infiltration is an issue of concern for voters; Tarun Gogoi and his son Gaurav's popularity essentially remain unaffected.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Assam for two days on February 24 and 25. There was a two-point agenda. Modi attended the Assam Global Investors’ Summit and sought to boost investment and promote the state’s rich cultural heritage. These are expected to drive home the point that under 'Double engine' regimes, the state of Assam has really done well in infra developments.
***
Pointers:
# Of course there is an issue of neglecting Bengali MLAs and a Bihari MLA Kaushik Rai from Lahkipur constituency in Barak valley has been promoted by Himanta.
# In October 2025, Silchar is going for first corporation election. This may reflect a trend for 2026. But in panchayat elections across Assam; BJP had one sided win.
** Gaurav Gogoi's influence has brought unity to the Congress leadership. Factionalism within the Congress has decreased apparently.
** A large section of BJP voters prefer return of Sarbananda Sonowal as the Chief Minister.
** BJP's Bengali leaders Rajdeep Roy and Shiladitya feel sidelined. But they could be marginalised further.
 |
| A non-functional water project in Digboi, 'home of oil' in Upper Assam |
ends
No comments:
Post a Comment