Modi pushed 'changes' braving heavy odds !! History - none can change. Geography - which is durable. And in India's case, Geography and History were always weighty elements

In a profession that is Politics -- which specialises in hypocrisy -- the performance of the Modi government stands out.

Between 1947 and 2014 India's domestic politics and governance generally preferred continuity than change.

In 1991, P V Narasimha Rao tried and implemented Economic Liberalisation and in 1998 Atal Bihari Vajpayee went for Nuclear test and that sought to redefine many aspects of governance and also country's defence and foreign policy.

Roads as mega infra push was originally a concept of the Vajpayee era. 

But since 2014, changes have marked the Indian road-map. And some transitions were drastic and was not anticipated. The GST for example was an unfinished agenda of the reform package.

Ban on high value currency and subsequent policy encouragements have pushed online payments in a big way and is giving competition to many technologically advanced countries. 

Any nation's broad governance policies and especially in economy and foreign policy realms are guided by history, geography and a flux vis-a-via changing global scenario.

Decades back - PM Modi with his mentor Advani 

History - none can change.

Geography - which is normally durable. And in India's case, it may not be erroneous to say that geography and history were always weighty elements. 

However, a few finer issues are always neglected even in terms of studies so as to learn from mistakes - both past and the present. 

We should not forget Public Sectors in India were something that made the Americans angry. But the PSUs were Russian weakness. Hence, America's great reluctance and the Soviet Union's much keenness to help India build PSUs especially Steel industry worked as a bridge in building up India-Soviet bonds too. 

There is yet another small element but vital one. Around 1947, the Soviet Union was one of 'enemies' of India but in two decades -- that is by the late sixties - it had become the most trusted friend. 

By 1998, the Vajpayee changed certain rules of the game. 

Thus, the history of India's strategic and foreign policy is largely the history of these contrary movements and continuous aim. 

Today, India and the US are friends.

But apparently, post Operation Sindoor and especially after India declined to entertain Donald Trump's whimsical claim that he 'brokered' India-Pakistan ceasefire - the games may change yet again.  

But unlike what was three decades back, the US is now a weakened customer globally due to plethora of reasons.   

Some argue that the US is struggling to maintain its influence due to internal divisions, the rise of other major powers, and its own actions, like withdrawing from international agreements or imposing tariffs. 

The perception of the United States as weak in the new world order stems from a combination of factors, including a perceived decline in its leadership role, a shift in global power dynamics, and the impact of specific policy decisions by the US government.  

Experts give different argument too.  One school of thought says, the US's high expectations and its tendency to engage in ambitious and complex goals have led to failures that are highly publicized, creating a perception of weakness, even though the US may still be a powerful nation.  

In today's era, everyone plays the game in pragmatic style.

The White House has reconciled itself to the South Asian giant’s (India's long-standing) friendly relationship with Russia because India has aligned itself more and more closely with the United States when it comes to China. 

New Delhi under PM Modi also worked smart. It has taken advantage of Western sanctions on Russia by purchasing cheap oil in bulk. 

"In 2022, India went from importing almost no Russian oil to importing over 1 million barrels per day, the price of which had been depressed by the sanctions regime.1 By the end of 2022, India was importing 33 times the amount of Russian crude than it had a year before.2 (Some of these imports were then re-exported to Europe," says an article in carnegieendowment.org. 

Several Western leaders were unhappy that India was indirectly financing Russia’s war, but as Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pointed out, the West’s ability to pay higher prices for its energy was a luxury that India just doesn’t have. India is the third-largest energy consumer in the world, and most of this energy is imported.

“I have a country that has a per capita income of two thousand dollars,” Jaishankar said, “these are not people who can afford higher energy prices.” 

In 2025 - how should India plan out ::

India has emerged a strong contender in the global stage. 

What happens to Pakistan in the next one year or so may not have much of its impact in India's long  journey.  But it important for India to note now - what will happen to Donald Trump's whimsical style of functioning. 

These may leave America much weaker. 

China remains a key player both in Asian and global context. The fate of Russis-Ukraine war may decide the fortunes of Moscow too.  

All these have to be in Indian calculus now. 

PM Modi says this is not the era of war. And rightly so.

But he also realises well that we are into an era of change. Some of the changes are coming pretty fast too.

Obviously, it looks more things will change in more places and sectors in the next 10-15 years than in the previous 100.  It seems the US is not quite ready for this dizzying ride. Bharat ought to be ready. 

ends