#Bangladesh #BNP #Awami League #Khaleeda Zia #SheikhHasina
The BNP is leading in popularity graph as per a survey in Bangladesh; but political rivals are irked as ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League commands 14 per cent support despite all propaganda against it.
A recent survey has shown that the BNP of Kheeda Zia leads in general mass popularity with 42%, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami at 32%.
This continues to keep the interim dispensation led by Muhammad Yunus unnerved. The student-led new outfit the National Citizen Party (NCP) is far behind.
Significantly enough, the banned Awami League of Sheikh Hasina, though cannot contest the polls, still enjoys 14% support – and probably more as most Awami League leaders are hiding; some in India.
And at the same time many voters are reluctant to reveal their preferences especially that is in favour of ousted PM Hasina's party.
In an edit comment titled "Banning the Opposition Is No Way to Revive Bangladesh's Democracy", magazine 'The Economist' argues: "Not everyone in Bangladesh's oldest party is tainted".
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| What's the roadmap for Bangladesh's return to Democracy? |
Now to look ahead one must try to examine issues such as what can neighbouring giant India do. How far will this new axis Bangladesh-Pakistan-China will go?
Does it mean Yunus wants to alienate the United States - which has lately developed an extra ordinary self-seeking love for Pakistan? And then what happens to the India angle in broad sense?
Experts feel India should take a pro-active interest about the political dynamics in that country. Bangladesh shares its border with as many as five Indian states: Assam, West Bengal, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura. That means it has India all around it.
There are certain areas India should take interest. Foremost of all worries is -- how and when can the tiny but a key member in South Asia club return to democracy through ballots.
The Army chief Gen Waqar uz Zaman had strongly favoured polls by December 2025; but Yunus wants to buy time. Among the existing political leaders Tarique Rahman also called Taroque Zia (interim chairman of BNP) is a crucial player.
He is the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the son of former President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.
Rahman has a typical anti-India image and it is a matter of fact that the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have been political allies in the past,
The Awami League leaders also have been much critical of Khaleeda Zia and her son and vice versa. In fact, it is believed that Tarique during his stay in exile (in London) had joined hands with Jamat and also Pakistani agency ISI to oust India-friendly Sheikh Hasina. But in politics -- 'enemy's enemy is a friend' is an established norm.
Hence, probably India can closely examine entire scenario. Probably two-three things should happen or may happen in next few months; but may not happen at all too.
One is - military coup or dismissal of the interim regime headed by Yunus. Gen Waqar is also pro-China and has in the past strongly opposed the 'bloody Rakhine corridor'.
But a coup and replacing of Yunus-led regime can actually create a new caretaker government so that elections are held in more transparent manner. The Yunus-led interim regime can hardly be trusted on that score -- that is holding of an inclusive election.
So who can replace Yunus at this juncture or by the end of 2025 other than the army rule?
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| Tarique Rahman |
That surprise man could be Tarique Rahman (or Zia). But India cannot hope benefit much. But what will a character such as Tarique do will depend a lot on the circumstances. Tarique's elevation could open a window for the Awami League or Sheikh Hasina to open some back channel with Dhaka.
In other words, a Tarique-led regime will be "less harmful" to the Awami League than the incumbent Yunus-led dispensation.
It is also made a case to suggest that even for Tarique Rahman - eligible to lead the country after 2026 polls - the next six months or so can pose as an opportunity to build his pro-liberal face.
Will he have to part ways for BNP with the Jamat - however - will remain to be seen.
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| Blogger in Dhaka : File snap |
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