What's that changed in West Bengal politics ?? --- A critical turning phase ::: Will Mamata Banerjee be finally ousted in 2026 ???

 Churning on ground in West Bengal politics :::

34 years of Left rule followed by 14 years of Mamata and in 2026 .... the Bhadralok may finally shun the perceived Left-liberal mindset.

Is the time right for the RIGHT wing Bharatiya Janata Party ??? 

The fact of the matter is West Bengal politics in the last decade especially the emergence of Namo factor has moved in all possible directions. So the churning is hardly unidirectional.  

Another fact is at one time of West Bengal politics - it was the Bhadralok (sub-alterns) who decided the political fortune. Now for multiple but obvious reasons that 'grip' of Bhadralok in the state polity has been loosening.  It is not without reasons that at one time people said - what West Bengal thinks today ... the rest of India think tomorrow.  

But the real reason is ... all that actually originated from the dictum --- what Kolkata (or Calcutta) thinks today; the rest of West Bengal think tomorrow.  

Now these are the matters of  past. The wag the tail theory is at work. 

Now the driving political force has emerged in rural Bengal. They include overwhelming Muslims, poor Hindus and even farmers and Scheduled Castes. 

The change in socio-political dynamics has become more palpable because population is on rise in rural areas and amongst sub-middle class levels and among Muslims and poor Hindus. Moreover, the 'younger generation' of Bharalok category has left Howrah and Sealdah railway stations .... 

That Bengal's talent and youth force - both boys and girls - have now spread across India and especially in cities such as Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Pune and even Ahmedabad and Vadodara as well as in north east of India. 

 

So the 'voting' strength of Bhadralok is on decline. Even the fertility rate has dropped !! 

So Mamata is not quite bothered. 

She has good reasons to presume that nearly 27-28 percent of Muslim voters are her captive electorate and out of about 62 per cent Hindus .... nearly 15-20 percent from rural and poorer sections (slum dwellers) vote for her party.  

Hence, the BJP is now realising that if it has to do well in West Bengal and build up from its 2019 campaign and success -- the party will have to ensure "solid Hindu consolidation".  

During the last 10 years plus (both due to Mamata and as well as Moditva factors); there has been neo-political empowerment of a large section -- who could have been called 'political down-under'.  

To understand things in much simpler form; one can give the example of Gujarat of 2002 and after. That was the period that saw the emergence of the BJP as a potent force in the western state and also saw the rise of Narendra Modi as a cult figure.  

But there is a big difference and in quite a finer aspect. Because that period in Gujarat saw the rise of neo-middle class. 

Modi could  win over the neo-middle class pretty well but that formula may not work here 100 per cent as ... Bengal has seen the 'rise' of poor and rural voters and that included a large section of scheduled castes and also Muslims. 

So for the BJP the challenge has grown manifold.  

One major issue Amit Shah may still find it difficult to handle is that while Mamata Banerjee walks away pretty easily with the Muslim voters; a large number of Hindu voters also vote for Trinamool Congress.  So this has given her advantage in 2024 Lok Sabha polls and hence BJP's tally came down considerably from what it was in 2019. 

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Bengali Babus and Babudom !!

But those in the know say West Bengal babudom has been mostly fashioned and used as convenient tools of the political bosses.

Of course, those who ruled the state for 34 years – the Leftists ought to get their share of the credit or blame. According to a former Secretary and a retired officer in the state, the likes of Anish Majumdar, N Krishnamurthi, Rathin Sengupta and T C Dutt were made Chief Secretaries during the erstwhile Basu government because they were “either not given to taking tough stance or they were viewed as the pro-communists”.

The state also had a unique cadre of officials and 'sympathisers' called the “street cadre". 

Similar vice might have existed in other states and perhaps still exists, but in West Bengal often senior most IAS officers missed the coveted Chief Secretary’s post over very ordinary or inane issues. Even Forward Bloc ministers during the Jyoti Basu regime often confronted with senior members of the civil service.

In the late 1960s, it is said, so much was the animosity that prominent CPI-M Minister Hare Krishna Konar (during United Front coalition regime with Bangla Congress), had described the bureaucrats as “gutter vermin”.    

Some Left leaders also described the babudom as a “necessary evil” with whom “uprightness” was a dead wood. 

Another official familiar with the style and standards of governance in the eastern state said, the steel frame was hardly able to be firm and thus in most cases they crumbled under pressure.

In the 1990s, Somnath Chatterjee, a former Lok Sabha Speaker, had made news in Kolkata as the chairman of the West Bengal Industrial Development Corporation when he “got rid of” the managing director.

Another Marxist leader Sankar Sen, also the state Power Minister, had declined to ‘accept’ an officer whom he found difficult to ‘discipline and handle’.

Ever since she became Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee started discouraging state cadre officials opting for central deputation. 

Thus, in 2011, West Bengal had 35 officers of the state cadre at the Centre and by 2017-18, it came down to seven.  

Even in the her favourite Chief Secretary Alapan Bandyopadhyay’s case, BJP leader Survendu Adhikari said the officer was pressurised by the political bosses.

 

Bandyopadhyay had shocked state Governor Jagdeep Dhankhar in 2021 when he went to meet the Governor on 'summoning' but did not submit any formal report to him on post-poll violence. 

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