Everyone is blaming President Donald Trump for the new world of trade and tariff chaos. But it is also true that in 2021, when Democrats cam to power, people expected Joe Biden to give up anti-China inheritance of Trump. Instead, Biden had doubled on some of Trump’s China policy.
For a healthy and effective debate; we must all appreciate this aspect in 2025.
My understanding is more from the perspective of a lay woman. But I always feel history and legacy issues matter a lot both in our day to day's personal life and on a greater scale at the national and global stage.
However, all of us know often a rosy future often turns out to be more than a mirage in a desert and widening recession. There was also rising level of unemployment.
It is also true we may not be able to influence the decisions of stalwarts like Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and even Narendra Modi ... but it is important for all individuals to study the subjects that have been flagged off.
The world is being brought to its knees by one economy. But is it possible in today's world? Can that particular economy that is the US survive the present day crises? There is now need for a bold and global response.
Let us create an economic coalition of the like-minded international leaders and the nations who will believe that, in an interdependent world, there must effective coordination for economic policies across continents. This appears too bookish. We may not get it.
But do not forget we have all witnessed other visible incidents of spiritualism overtaking war economies and other religious sects in the form of disarmament policies, reduction of nuclear arms at the global level.
Today, how do we look at years when there was the Berlin Wall and then the coming down of the Wall. Moreover, the world was changing ... we did not realise. More and more non-vegetarians becoming vegetarians especially in the west and developed nations. There was mushrooming of yoga centres in the world and growing popularity for alternate or traditional medicines. All these much before Narendra Modi started dominating proceedings in India.
What can be suggested is that we must study things more closely. China should be made to understand that if it is to present itself as a champion of free trade, it is in its interests to focus more on expanding domestic consumption than flooding the world’s markets with cut-price goods.
The immediate challenge as I understand will be to mitigate the supply-side shocks caused by the Trump tariff wall.
I will try to take the debate little India centric. We have a national love for the policy of love thy Status Quo. India should have reformed policies related to trade and investment (FDI)... Let us not take the risk... can it really go a long way?
Forget our Neta class. The Babudom is anti-change and anti-reform. Look at the pension budget and still people want free health service, free electricity, special discounts for train travels... affordability of the middle class is never the issue. It's a greed.
Even India's industrialists are not for deeper reforms because reforms will open rooms for greater competition and this will affect profits.
Under Narendra Modi itself; three farm Bills were withdrawn just because middlemen in Punjab wanted them withdrawn. It was a pathetic thing to happen.
Everyone realises now that the world and the global economy are changing. We as a nation of status quo club will be forced to emerge from its economic comforts. Trump policy has set the ball rolling and is demanding industrial and also agricultural reforms.
Talking about Indian economy, the Narendra Modi government’s performance has been impressive. The economic growth was sluggish in 2014. A series of high-profile corruption cases led to a loss of investor confidence. These are facts.
The government gave some assertive message. Between 2014 and 2022, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita rose from US$5,000 to over US$7,000 — an increase of roughly 40% in eight years.
These calculations use purchasing power parity.
Well some of the points are well taken. I think India must also try to understand and appreciate its own potentials. The Viksit Bharat slogan will be effective if we give up negativity. At times, India does not know the obvious that its economic stars looked so bright.
China knows India's potentials even Russia and South Africa know. That is why we have BRICS. The West also knows it.
India now has the educated and AI-capable workforce and will soon match China. The demographic dividend is huge. We need to tap and perhaps even Bangladesh and Pakistan may come up the ladder.
In 2010, post the great financial crisis, China decided to move up the value chain... This opened scope for manufacturing boost. Bangladesh and Vietnam made use of the time. India was shy for at least five years when 'Make in India' initiative was pushed.
Before we conclude; let us examine the final words.
Global economy is vital but only one part of the debate. For India, we have to move on ... we have been the fastest growing economy. Now we are the fifth largest economy and will be the third soon. But what is also important is the basics. Indian economy is linked to two desi issues -- Rozgar and Mehengai.
Of course Donald Trump has created a situation. For India -- we have challenges but a few opportunities too.
Our social fabric is our strength. Our inclusive social structure is inherent. As we take economic measures; there is also a need to deal with social issues. The divisiveness, bigotry and some issues of social injustice will have to be handled too.
ends
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