Narendra Modi sounds furious; -- PM's 'military response' against Pakistan may be on cards sooner than later :::: One reason for Pahalgam attack is because Govt linked "numbers of tourists" to normalcy especially after abrogation of Article 370

Analysts say Tuesday’s massacre shattered the illusion of calm that Indian Govt has projected of the region and raises questions of how such a security lapse could have occurred !! 

Given the Narendra Modi government's security approach as it keeps talking about '56 inch chest' -- a desi reference for being gutsy and decisive, it is assumed that New Delhi will resort to kinetic military measures.

The Modi Govt and his BJP political outfit have always believed in projecting a strong security state image.

"I want to say in very clear words that the terrorists who carried out this attack and those who conspired in it will receive a punishment bigger than they can imagine," PM Narendra Modi said in the state of Bihar on Thursday. 

This was his maiden public speech after the Pahalgam massacre on April 22nd. 

New Delhi's diplomatic moves may just be an opening salvo.

 

A furious Modi Government, that has a track record of bombing twice -- in 2016 and in 2019; has so far taken a raft of mostly symbolic diplomatic measures.

Modi's military response may be on cards sooner than later. 

New Delhi has suspended a six decades old water-sharing treaty that was brokered by the World Bank. The Govt also announced the closure of the main land border crossing with Pakistan, downgraded diplomatic ties and withdrew visas for Pakistanis on Wednesday night.  

Even as Pakistan has denied any involvement for April 22 mayhem that has broken various old trends; a little-known militant group called The Resistance Front (an offshoot of Lashqar-e-Taiba) claimed responsibility for the attack. 

All but one of the 26 people massacred in the attack on Tuesday were Indian citizens, prompting a new wave of unrest in a region at the epicenter of long-running and often violent territorial struggle between Pakistan and India.  

For decades, several domestic militant groups, demanding either independence for Kashmir or for the area to become part of Pakistan, have fought Indian security forces, leaving tens of thousands killed in the violence.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue the attackers “to the ends of the earth". 

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Hindus were deliberately targeted.

Eyewitnesses described scenes of horror as the gunmen approached, opening fire on tourists from close range. Some even recalled how the men were singled out and shot at. 

Other survivors speaking to local media said the gunmen accused the families of supporting Prime Minister Modi before shooting.  

Kashmir police on Thursday published notices naming three suspects allegedly involved in the attack. Two of the three are Pakistani nationals, according to the notices. They did not say how the men were identified.

Now, analysts say that a military response may still be in the pipeline, with some speculating that a response may come within days. 

Since 2016 and 2019, the threshold for retaliation against Pakistan has been set at aerial strikes

“They will certainly pay. Whatever little land these terrorists have, it’s time to reduce it to dust. The willpower of 1.4 billion Indians will break the backbone of these terrorists.” -- PM Modi

"This attack is going to take... relations a long way back to the dark days," said International Crisis Group analyst Praveen Donthi.

The killings have shocked India because they were a dramatic shift targeting civilians and the area's vital tourism industry.

In the past the Hindu pilgrims have been targeted but direct attacks on the tourist trade that underpins much of the local economy are much rarer.

"A major attack in a tourist area does constitute a break from the past," said Ajai Sahni, a counter-terrorism expert at the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management.

For New Delhi, the 3.5 million tourists who it says visited Kashmir in 2024 -- mostly domestic visitors -- illustrated what officials called "normalcy and peace" returning to the troubled region after a massive crackdown in 2019.

One of the reasons this attack might have happened is because the government started linking the numbers of tourists... to this narrative of normalcy especially after abrogation of Article 370.

The militants finally changed their attack. This is going to mark an escalation in the conflict.

US-based analyst Michael Kugelman said : "I would argue that the combination of the scale of this attack as well as the targeting -- the fact that civilians were hit -- that suggests to me that there is a strong likelihood of some type of Indian military retaliation," he said.