Tuesday, January 23, 2024

I.N.D.I alliance unity goes for a toss - Mamata, Kejriwal dump Congress ::: West Bengal CM says she was 'not invited' to participate in 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra'


Mamata Banerjee said in Kolkata that she has not spoken to anyone in the Congress on the seat-sharing issue.


West Bengal CM also said she was 'not invited' to participate in the 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra' when it will enter West Bengal.


Congress seems to be ready to make a climb down. But whether it will be at the 'cost of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury' remains be seen.  


AICC general secretary Jairam Ramesh, now playing Saarthi to Rahul Gandhi, alongside a dedicated media team, said in Assam that Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge "has mentioned 3-4 times in his speech that all INDIA partners are invited to join the Bharat Jodo Yatra".


He said, "....invitations were sent to all parties. I don't know in what reference she (Mamata) said like this". 


(Opposition unity ends ...is by itself blessings to Modi) 



Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said that the Trinamool Congress is an "important pillar" of the opposition alliance. 


"We cannot imagine the INDIA alliance without Mamata ji. The INDIA bloc will fight the Lok Sabha polls in West Bengal and all (partners) will participate," he said in Assam. 



"Whatever proposal I gave them, they have refused all," Mamata Banerjee said. "Since then, we have decided to go alone in Bengal."


AAP of Arvind Kejriwal and Bhagwant Mann deals blow to INDIA after Mamata Banerjee  

Mann said, "In Punjab, we will not do anything (alliance with the Congress) like that. We have nothing with the Congress."






Banerjee's announcement comes a day after she traded fire with Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who criticised the West Bengal Chief Minister, called her an opportunist, and said that the party would contest the Lok Sabha elections without her assistance.


This is a major setback for the opposition. 


West Bengal has 42 parliamentary seats -- next only to UP - 80 and Maharashtra 48. Moreover, the eastern state has sizable Muslim population.

In 2019, BJP won 18 seats and this year the saffron party has set a target of 35 from the state, according to Himanta Biswa Sarma. 


Banerjee's announcement comes a day after she traded fire with Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who criticised the West Bengal Chief Minister, called her an opportunist, and said that the party would contest the Lok Sabha elections without her assistance.


Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury's censure followed reports that the TMC is likely to field candidates in all the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal. Following the spat between the two leaders, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi attempted to mollify Mamata Banerjee, saying that she was "close to him" and Chowdhury's comments on seat-sharing talks "won't matter".


The TMC supremo, however, expressed her displeasure with the Congress, indicating that Rahul Gandhi's olive branch had not made any impact. She claimed the grand old party did not even inform her about their planned Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in West Bengal. "As a matter of courtesy, they haven't even informed me they are going to hold a yatra in Bengal," she stated. 


Mamata's decision may be beginning of an 'unmaking' process for the anti-BJP forces in the country with perhaps three weeks left for announcement of poll schedules by the Election Commission.  


Punjab Chief Minister exuded confidence that his party would emerge victorious in all the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state. 

Kejriwal has approved a proposal by the Punjab unit of AAP to fight the general election alone, sources said.


They added that AAP refused to contest the election with the Congress in Punjab, accusing the grand old party of having a stubborn attitude regarding seat-sharing.  

AAP has bright prospects in Punjab as BJP does not matter in the state. Moreover, in Punjab too the family-inspired politics of Akalis are showing its limitations. The magic of Parkash Singh Badal is finally over.  


In 2022 assembly polls,  the Aam Aadmi Party gained a strong 79% majority in the sixteenth Punjab Legislative Assembly by winning 92 out of 117 seats. 


AAP Punjab convener and MP Bhagwant Mann was sworn in as Chief Minister on 16 March 2022.  


AAP's vote share was 42.01 percent followed by 22.98 percent of Congress and a modest 18.38 percent by the Akali Dal. 



Mann: Punjab CM of AAP 











Bengal, Odisha and Telangana - focus of BJP strategies for 'Mission 400 plus'


On the other side, the BJP, sources say, has its plans drawn for Mission 2024. First the target is quite ambitious-- 400 plus in the 545-member Lok Sabha. 

The party's core group for poll strategies include three organisation men - Sunil Bansal, Tarun Chugh and Vinod Tawde.


In overall management of course is BJP president J P Nadda and Home Minister Amit Shah, also a former BJP Chief.


The Home Minister was the architect of BJP's illustrious poll victory in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 Lok Sabha polls and some key states later and these have changed the politico-electoral games in the country permanently.


"We are used to winning elections now, and you know pretty well who are regular losers," said a key poll strategist. 


In terms of 'focus states' for the saffron party's 2024 battle will be Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal, Naveen Patnaik-ruled Odisha and of course Telangana in the south. The Congress has however gained grounds in Telangana and is in power since December 2023.


While the northeast as a block is crucial for the 25 Lok Sabha seats, Odisha has 21 and with West Bengal's 42 it comes to 88 seats.


These 88 seats would be very important from the 2024 polls point of view. In 2019, the saffron surge had resulted in victories for BJP in 40 seats.


Telangana sends 17 Lok Sabha members and in 2019, the Lotus party did well to pick up four seats -- a neat gain of three than the 2014 performance. Importantly, the BJP vote share in Telangana was 19.45 percent as against 29.48 percent by Congress and 41.29 percent by B Chandraasekhar Rao's TRS -- which is now renamed as Bharatiya Telangana Samithi. 


However, Rao could not push his party in the national electoral canvas despite high ambitions and sincere efforts from time to time. 

The BJP has set a higher number of seats from Telangana in 2024.


The law of the average suggests the saffron party will face stiff challenges in some northern and western states. 

Sources said the BJP has done well in assembly polls in 2017 and 2022 in Uttar Pradesh and returned to power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.


Nevertheless, the BJP poll strategists are working overtime to make a significant deeper penetration in the north east and especially in Odisha and Telangana.


In 2019, the BJP on its own could manage to cross the psychological 300 mark and could pick up 303 seats. 


The saffron party has made deeper penetration in the state that was created during UPA stint in 2014 but with the crucial support from the BJP. Lately some internal dynamics have changed in Telangana as one time cabinet minister in KCR regime Etela Rajender has joined the saffron party.

The BJP has also gained grounds in Telangana.


Vinod Tawde is a cool organiser from Maharashtra and in early 2000 he catered to the party's Mumbai unit. In 1995-96, he had served in the Maharashtra BJP as its general secretary (organisation). 


The western parts of UP have been crucial for BJP win in 2014 Lok Sabha polls where the party could pick up all 18 seats from the region. However, in 2019, the alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Mayawati-led BSP did leave an impact in five seats. 


ends 






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