There is one dialogue in film 'Garam Hawa' that should generate interest. Chief protagonist played by noted actor Balraj Sahni asks one character: “How come you are in Congress? You were all for Muslim League?”
The response is: “These days, post-Partition, Congress party gives us, the Muslims, much importance.”
This is true even today, in 2026 - when Congress has lost three consecutive polls in 2014, 2019 and 2024 and now preparing with a renewed determination punctuated with desperation for the grand battle of 2029. It is estimated 12-14 percent of Muslim voters are with the Congress. However, Muslims are spread across India and a sizable number of Muslims lean towards regional parties - such as Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress and IUML.
The Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM has taken Muslim votes and has generally helped BJP indirectly. It is estimated that around 8 per cent Hindus hate BJP and Narendra Modi and they vote generally for Congress across India and also deviates towards Samajwadi Party, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and such regional parties.
Studies suggest BJP or even NDA capture three-fifths of the Hindu vote— that is around 45 per cent of 79-80 per cent of total population.
Caste and ideology handle the rest. In other words, the Hindu vote, unlike the Muslim and Christian vote, is fragmented.
The Muslim voters appear 'as an insecure' lot looking for constant guardianship from Congress and other regional parties. They would vote for Congress and ecosystem even if there is 'zero performance' and they would not vote for BJP even if there are multiple welfare measures and infra developments in their areas.
The Muslim voters are more than 'pleased' with the Sickular lobbies with the once-in-five-years appearance and appeasement.
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| Shrinking Left base has helped BJP because Hindus felt neglected |
The resultant of this aspect of politics has been that since 1991, Congress’ vote share with the Hindu support base has not crossed 30 per cent border line.
While Hindu votes have deserted it -- the fallout was best felt in 2014 and 2019 - the Muslim support base has shifted closer to the Congress. But that number is still inadequate.
Since first Lok Sabha election in 1951-52, the highest recorded vote share for a single party has been 49.1 per cent for Congress under Rajiv Gandhi in 1984.
Indira Gandhi won in 1971 with 43.70 per cent and in 1980 with 42.69 per cent. Jawaharlal Nehru won three successive landslide victories in 1952, 1957 and 1962 with a vote share of, respectively, 44.99 per cent, 47.78 per cent and 44.72 per cent.
In 1991, 36.26 per cent of votes came to Congress and it had benefited by Rajiv Gandhi's death.
The Congress needs to analyse that between 2009 and 2014 -- when Narendra Modi wrested power - the Congress votes and seats dropped by 80 per cent from 206 seats in 2009 to 44 seats in 2014, That recovery did not happen much in 2019 -- but in 2024 -- the formation of a new INDI-alliance bloc helped Congress touch the near magic number of 99.
As AICC president and Prime Minister; Rajiv Gandhi had apparently understood the emerging problems of Hindu-Muslim voting pattern. But his diagnosis was misguided. He thought of appeasing both Muslims and Hindus - one by Shah Bano case and the new Bill ad the other by opening Ram Mandir for Shilanyas. It backfired and both Hindus and Muslims did not vote for the Congress in 1989.
Thus, the Congress Lok Sabha ally plunged to 197 from 414.
Now all eyes are on UP polls. In 2017, BJP played up Hindutva card. Modi had chanted "Har Har Mahadev" himself during his three-day rally in Varanasi and also alleged how the Akhilesh Yadav government in Uttar Pradesh (from 2012 to 2017)built only kabristan (for Muslims) and gave 24x7 electricity during Eid but not during Diwali.
Yet again, the politics in UP will be around Hindutva issues, about the image of a performing CM Yogi and especially improved law and order situation.
In broad sense at the national level; coinciding with the rise of the BJP, the Muslim representation in state assemblies and Parliament have declined pretty in the past 12-13 years.
This is the season of protest against SIR and against the Election Commission.
The real debate about Congress and even the Left or parties such as Trinamool Congress is about Muslim voters.
It was alleged that in West Bengal, Assam and even in Bihar; primarily Muslims faced the threat of being disenfranchised under SIR.
In West Bengal - many were identified as Bangladeshis, But due to peculiar geo-politics in Bangladesh; the Bengali Hindus in India were assured of citizenship under CAA.
Last year, speaking in parliament Rahul Gandhi alleged that SIR was part of a wider project by the BJP to conduct “vote chori [theft]” and destroy the longstanding integrity of India’s democratic elections.
Other opposition parties also alleged that SIR has been 'coverted' into a new national register of citizens (NRC) process -- similar to what took place in Assam.
The NRC in Assam led to hundreds of thousands, primarily Muslims, being rounded up and detained in detention centres and some deported to Bangladesh.
But in Assam, out of 19 Congress MLAs -- 18 elected in 2026 are Muslims. These results became handy for the BJP to dub Congress as a 'new Muslim League'.
What would happen after Nov 1 rally remains to be seen. In 2024, Congress won 99 seats but this is not a real sign of party's electoral revival because its national vote share rose typically marginally from 19.49 per cent in 2019 to 21.19 per cent.
In contrast, the BJP won 240 and lost 63 seats (from 303 tally in 2019); but the Lotus party's vote-share dropped only by 0.8 per cent. The Congress seats jumped to 99 from 52 but the vote share had increased only 1.7 per cent. This does not augur well.
ends
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