America's grip is weakening. There are multiple factors for that. "America as the guarantor to the world, it is no longer there," said Tom Barrack, the US envoy to Turkey. Importantly, he is also Donald Trump's special envoy for Syria and Iraq.
The United States is moving away from its 'traditional' security-for-oil relationship with the Middle East and no longer seeks to dominate the region, he emphasised. However, he sought to clarify that what is happening is "not abandonment" but definitely a "message for realignment". “The US no longer wants to own ...The bargain is not to control, but to not leave. We’re not leaving.”
Barrack also questioned the effectiveness of previous interventions, saying that the US had been involved in ”23 regime changes” across the wider Middle East.
“Every time we try and intervene, change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” he said.
His comments come as Washington and Tehran try to negotiate an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran that has destabilised the region and disrupted global energy supplies. Analyst Luciano Zaccara described Barrack as probably “the most realistic of Trump’s allies” in his assessment of US involvement in the Middle East. Barrack also said that the war launched by Israel and the US in February 2026 brought unexpected consequences. He said there are lessons to be learnt and there are limits to US power.
This means Barrack has "effectively acknowledged" that regime change, one of Trump’s stated objectives in the war on Iran, was unlikely to succeed.
There is yet another 'plan' for an Iran-US deal. This move envisages reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear negotiations in exchange for US concessions, including lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports.
There are also possibilities of easing economic sanctions on Tehran.
Analyst Negar Mortazavi said the diplomatic door remained open, but negotiations were stalled over the terms and sequencing of an agreement. “Tehran wants to end the war, but it is not prepared to surrender under military or economic pressure,” she told Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the forum in Doha.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a major flashpoint, with attacks on commercial shipping raising concerns over global energy supplies. Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies transited through the strait.
The escalation was part of Tehran’s strategy to maintain leverage against Washington despite its military disadvantages. Iran’s leverage has diminished but has not disappeared.
According to Mortazavi, Tehran wants to increase the economic and political costs of the war for Trump, while signalling to future US administrations that military action against Iran carries consequences.
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But there are ifs and buts.
Gulf countries are looking nervously at Saudi Arabia, where missile and drone attacks by Houthi militants have damaged energy facilities and the international airport in capital Riyadh. However, the US does not mind "smaller and more diversified alliances" in the Gulf like the new defence pact between Saudis, Pakistanis and the leadership in Turkey.
There is also a significant element of lack of understanding. The US has not simply seen where the things would ultimately go yet. But there is yet another perspective. Under Trump - there is always a confused and mixed signals.
These do not auger well for the world. Worse, they have hit US credibility either.
At the end of the US has remained 'weak and even insufficient'; but it is a fact of life that the Americans will remain highly involved and influential in the region.
Nevertheless, the continued escalation posed serious risks to Iran as well as the wider region.
The 8th edition of the Global Security Forum 2026 concluded in Doha on Wednesday after three days of discussions under the theme “Future of Alliances.”
The forum brought together senior officials and prominent figures from more than 100 countries to discuss the future of alliances and collective security amid evolving geopolitical challenges.
The final day featured high-level dialogues on changes in the international security landscape, the implications of conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran, security developments in Africa, and the role of technology and non-state actors in shaping emerging security threats.
Discussions also addressed cooperation and intelligence sharing, the security challenges posed by drones, the use of artificial intelligence in preventing and combating terrorism, and the future of alliances amid diverging political positions.
ends
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