The Pakistan military’s bet was that the Afghan insurgents were “good” jihadists, separate in nature from the “bad” Pakistani insurgents they were fighting. That distinction between the two movements, always shaky, has become increasingly blurred.
In 2026, many Taliban members have joined the TTP and also there is "no jihad" to fight inside Afghanistan.
India is keeping fingers crossed.
“It is another attempt by Pakistan to externalise its internal failures,” says MEA spokesman.
The Taliban leadership in Afghanistan are not behaving like a government, they are still in militant mode. Secondly; New Delhi understands the intricacies -- the Taliban are part of a war economy.
And perhaps more importantly; Talibans are used to wars. When there is no Jihad to do in Afghanistan ... they are looking eastwards.
“Reaping what you sow is very different, and yet, it is the only thing that can be counted on ... that careful application of self to tasks, continuing to learn from the world and digging deep to learn more about the self, the investment of self in ways of being and doing, bringing about deep and fundamental accomplishments and changes.” --
The quote by author Shellen Lubin makes a lot of sense for Pakistan today.
She is also a performer, and teacher of theatre and music and paradoxically she also penned 'Bad News'.
Things are pretty bad for Islamabad and the Rawalpindi military cantonment today.
Flashpoints:
* India-Afghanistan new found bonhomie is one set of problems.
** Afghanistan thus was "not Pakistan’s only geo-political challenge". On its western flank, Pakistan now finds a much weakened Iran set to ignite trouble on that border too.
*** Tehran is too busy with Trump and Washington-directed mischiefs and hence Iran no longer is in a position to help Pakistan manage the Taliban.
Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, says and rightly so -- patience had finally run out after calling repeatedly on the Taliban to stop Pakistani militants from using Afghan territory as a sanctuary from which to attack.
In 2011, Hillary Clinton as US secretary of state had put it bluntly -- “You can’t keep snakes in your back yard and expect them only to bite your neighbours". Yes; Rawalpindi had thought the snakes could bite only India and things have been turned today.
It's oriental Karma -- now that has caught up. And all these -- crisis like situations have been happening with or without Donald Trump.
Another paradoxical tale is linked to Pakistan's obsession with Islamic law. Check out this :
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) says -- it wants 'extreme version of Islam on Pakistan' --- which has 95% of the population Muslims.
Moreover; the constitution of Pakistan stipulates that all laws have to be in line with Islam.
The Taliban in Kabul also deny that their territory is being used against Pakistan -- another Karma facet as for decades Pakistan has been denying that its territories have been used by terrorists against India and especially to foment separatism in Jammu and Kashmir.
Taliban rather wants Islamabad to re-enter into negotiations with the militant group behind many of the attacks.
The TTP emerged in 2007 and waged terror across Pakistan for a decade, but it had weakened in the years before the Taliban took Kabul in 2021.
The Taliban and the TTP fought together against international forces in Afghanistan, and the TTP had hosted its jihadi brothers in Pakistan.
With the Taliban in power, it was payback time for the TTP.
Since 2021 there has been a surge in attacks in Pakistan.
India’s growing engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan — an emerging partnership between two countries has left Pakistan at unease.
Like the game of chess; pawns and other coins have changed positions. Some break rules. Some jump two-and-half steps and some go straight ... but one corner to another.
Islamabad or even Rawalpindi did not anticipate the transitions.
There is a New Wave of nationalism in Afghanistan today that’s made Haibatullah stronger.
Haibatullah Akhunzada, is an Afghan cleric who is the supreme leader of Afghanistan under the Taliban government. He has led the Taliban since 2016.
Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said Pakistan’s strategy was to inflict pain on Afghanistan through airstrikes and an economic blockade, to compel a change in approach or replacement of the leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada.
“Bombing Afghanistan was a mistake as Haibatullah had to retaliate or lose credibility,” Giustozzi said. (The Guardian, London)
The complexities do not end here. A former retired Indian military officer analyses -- "Pakistan should have realised the change in mood in Afghanistan since 2021. The manner the US-led forces fled ... it was clear, Taliban had won a long battle with its darker phases.
Taliban were told by Islamabad to choose between TTP and Pakistan as a good neighbour; and they went for the former".
Is the game over ?
The Taliban have turned so far against Pakistan that they are also supporting a secular Pakistani insurgency that is seeking to separate the country’s natural resources-rich province of Balochistan.
The TTP supremo Noor Wali Mehsud has proved himself to be very capable militant leader. He has managed to unite its squabbling factions and pursue a new strategy where it focuses its attacks on the army and the police rather than civilians.
This is a successful strategy so far.
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Dr Jaishankar with Afghanistan's Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi - who visited India from
Oct 9 to 16; 2025, marking a key political mission |
Pakistan in more ways than one was "forced" to make tough choices over decades of instability in Afghanistan.
After the 9/11 attacks and the US invasion of Afghanistan, Islamabad became alarmed at what it perceived as the influence of its arch-enemy India on the Afghan government.
Pakistan sought a more friendly Afghanistan and the Taliban were seen as the only viable option, but it is a fact Islamabad remained a close American ally.
The alliance with Firangis (US) ignited a radical reaction in Pakistan led by the TTP, which was behind the assassination of the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
The TTP was also allegedly involved in the massacre of more than 130 children at a school, and the taking of territory including the Swat valley, where they shot the schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai.
According to Pakistani authorities, air raids in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Paktika provinces targeted sanctuaries of Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, and its affiliates, killing at least “80 militants in intelligence-based air strikes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border targeting seven camps”.
Kabul has rejected those claims.
The Afghan Ministry of Defence said the strikes hit a religious school and residential homes, killing and wounding dozens, including women and children. Afghan sources told Al Jazeera that at least 17 people were killed in Nangarhar alone. Kabul pledged a “measured and appropriate response”.
India has entered the scene in a sense. It has condemned the Pakistani military action and throwing in its support for Afghanistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
“India strongly condemns Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, during the holy month of Ramadan,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal
ends
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