Bangladesh mandate may throw up yet another round of Status quo

 Bangladesh mandate may throw up yet another round of  Status quo 

30 Awami League dominated seats - These seats will play a crucial part in a closely fought elections. 

"Tailored election messages are undoubtedly important, but they are often vague, making the accompanying pledges difficult to assess. While it is true that the two leading contenders—the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami—published policy papers ahead of their manifestos, there was little substantive public discussion of those documents. As a result, there was no real pressure to address criticisms or incorporate new ideas into more realistic, measurable action plans. Unsurprisingly, many experts now view these manifestos as laden with over-ambitious and hollow promises," - runs an editorial in Dhaka-based Daily Star.

In other words; in a confusing state of affairs no one is sure who will win Bangladesh polls. Top of that - perhaps no one is sure what will be the consequence of this year's polls and the Referendum.

Blogger 

The Feb 12 polling appears to have relied almost entirely on competing “narratives” crafted and sold by parties and their leaders. Campaign strategists have been largely successful in pushing their respective narratives and counter-narratives, leaving the voters—with little choice.

Taking a closer look by various angles is thus a critical necessity to under Bangladesh and its future.

🛑*Major issues* 

- *Jul 2024 Protest & Aug 5, 2024 Impact*

- *Unemployment

- *First time voters

- *Women Voters Status

-  *Minorities Status -- Crucial from India's perspective

- *Economic Situation

- *Security

One message is : Different power centres will have to align with one another till each one can consolidate strength. 

*Large No of First time & Youth Voters* - Out of

 the total 126 mn voters there are 4.5 mn first

 time voters & 56 mn (18-37 yrs) youth voters

30 Awami League dominated seats - These seats will play a crucial part in a closely fought elections. 

Past Elections in Bangladesh 

*2001 Elections* 

- Awami League suffered a major defeat, winning just 62 seats

- BNP secured a commanding majority with 193 seats. 

- 2001 election marked the last clear transfer of power between the two major parties.

*2009 Elections*

- Awami League-led Grand Alliance returned to power in a landslide.

- Bangladesh’s electoral history post 2009 elections over the past two decades has been predominantly shaped by the Awami League and the party has consolidated its dominance.

*2014 Elections*

- BNP was absent from the contest

- Awami League won a landslide.

*2018 Elections* 

- Awami League further strengthened its grip securing 300 seats and BNP was reduced to just seven seats, its weakest performance on record. 

- Thousands of BNP leaders were arrested in the lead-up to the elections. 

- JeI was banned in 2015, and so it couldn’t contest. 

- International observers and opposition groups described the election as neither free nor fair.

*2024 Elections*

- In 2024 election, the Awami League won 272 seats, maintaining a parliamentary majority. 

- BNP again boycotted, amid deepening repression of opposition leaders. 

- Jamaat continue to be banned.

Now possible scenarios after after Feb 12 polls : 

** Critical for India : 

*Scenario-  A 

- Jamaat achieves majority 

- It continues Muhd Yunus setup

- Likely to attempt to change the Bangladesh Army Chief Gen Waker

- Relations may improve with Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and USA

- Relations may become challenging with India

*Scenario-  B 

- Hung assembly BNP has more seats.

- Attempt to break JeI led coalition

- If No elected government then  Yunus government continues

- Bangladesh Army led by Gen Waker role becomes important 

- Relations with India remain the same

Scenario  C 

- BNP achieves majority. Tarique takes over as PM 

- BNP removes Yunus and his associates get a snub

- Likely to take support of the Bangladesh Army led by Gen Waker

- Relations may improve with India.

Political chessboard: 

US President Donald Trump’s weaponisation of tariffs and shifting geopolitical dynamics across Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia have made export growth more difficult.

Imports more uncertain and expensive, and the prospects of attracting investment or aid increasingly bleak. 

Economists pointed out that many of the political pledges or projections—job creation, accelerated growth, and expansive social security—are unlikely to be realised during the next parliamentary term.

Ends