In diplomacy, never a task is 100 per cent over. It was a tough election. Nevertheless, after 28 months of interim regime amid chaotic failures; electoral battle is over.
A decisive mandate too has come and much to India's expectations, the BNP Chief Tarique Rehman is now set to be the Prime Minister.
India needs to take the first mover advantage in engagement and assistance, else New Delhi would get muscled out by China and the US. Narendra Modi's phone call wss timely.
For long; from New Delhi's perspective, the Awami League was a consistent friend. In fact, the BNP was almost anti India. But the overall perspective has changed.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has rightly reached out to Tarique Rehman first by a tweet and then spoke personally too. It is the smart ans expected approach.
New Delhi now needs to "sweeten the genuine friendship deal" with a befitting economic package.
There can be targeted investments in RMG exports, infrastructure, and job creation to stabilise the transition. In other words, India has to "rebuild" the goodwill, help curb any major unrest and of course positions India as a steady partner.
It may be safely stated that with the BNP reclaiming power after the much expected polls, Bangladesh faces a seismic political shift.
Bangladesh begins a new journey. After over 18 months since the mass uprising, the long-awaited election has finally been held, opening up the path for a democratic transition.
After any election, it is natural that one party will form the government and another will be the opposition. The question no longer is whether a large section of the voters have participated in the election, and whether the electoral process has been relatively free from external interference or disturbance.
The election has certainly passed the test.
Now thw Functionsl Realities :::
In the new situation, the Awami League's ouster paves the way for Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to emerge as the primary opposition.
Sheikh Hasina may be desperate for life safety; her hundreds of party leaders and mid level functionaries will be little restive about their future - both immediate and long term.
Notably; New Delhi will do well to keep in mind that the Jamaat and its allies will have potential to dominate the next government's dynamics.
Slowly; by default -- the Awami League may fade away.
Analysts predict JeI's swift rise, sidelining Awami League remnants.
Challenges for Dhaka and its friends would be --- Persistent unemployment, already a ticking bomb with youth joblessness exceeding 40%.
This will continue to fester under the new regime, strained by policy inertia and economic headwinds.
Under Yunus; India opted for reduced funding—down amid bilateral tensions.
This already drew sharp blame from Dhaka nationalists, exacerbating anti-India rhetoric and straining border ties.
Team Modi and India foreign policy engine room have to work for Pragmatic Path Forward.
Of course, as a sensitive big bro neighbour: New Delhi can Prioritise Sheikh Hasina's well-being: ensure top-tier health and medical care.
This will or signal magnanimity and at the same time pursue professional diplomacy with the incoming Tarique regime.
Indian policy approach so far is clear -- framing Tarique's win as "democracy's triumph."
BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed today said that his party will formally urge India to extradite ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh to stand trial.
Ends
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