Is BNP still far away from capturing power in Bangladesh ??

 

All of a sudden or rather gradually, the BNP is losing out its steam in the fast approaching Feb 12 elections in Bangladesh.

The party is now nervous that things are being staged in favour of Jamaat and NCP.  BNP has now officially opposed Election Commissipn move to deploy "many Bangladesh National Caset Corps  cadets" on election duties as they are college and university students who may be affiliated with political parties or ideological groups.

The refrain being arguing their involvement could compromise the neutrality of the electoral process.

BNP leader Mahdi Amin said the party has sent a letter to the Election Commission requesting that BNCC cadets not be deployed for election duties.

In addition, the BNP raised objections to the appointment of election observers, citing Election Commission data which show that as of January 26, a total of 55,454 observers from 81 local organisations had been approved, with 34,442 drawn from just 16 organisations.

The party alleged that some observer organisations are led by individuals linked to a particular political party, creating the risk of misuse on polling day.

To ensure a level playing field, the BNP placed two demands before the Election Commission -- a comprehensive review of the approved observer list to remove individuals linked to political parties or candidates, and a reduction in the number of observers from organisations with limited monitoring experience, along with restrictions on allowing more than two local observers to enter a polling centre at the same time.

These probably happen in all democracies. But in Bangladesh context; these have some special significances. Post demise of Khaleeda Zia and arrival of her son Tarique Rehman; a view largely circulated that there was a wave in favour of BNP and the party may virtually cake walk to victory. But the political machinations have prevailed and NCP and Jamaat have probably turned the table.

Hence the BNP is bit nervous. In other words, a fierce competition is on cards. 

That way; Bangladesh watchers and analysts presume the Jamaat may actually come out with flying colours. But what will such eventuality actually mean kn ground vis-a-vis New Delhi from geo-strategic point of view.

Has India again tried to put all eggs in one basket ? The new basket being BNP and does it also imply that the Awami League is history?

The safest reply will be - Not quite to both the queries. But that would mean Team Modi will have to work out new and more practical policy approaches. 

At least 29 fake and misleading pieces of information have been circulated BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman, said the spokesperson of the party’s election steering committee, Mahdi Amin, during a press conference at the committee’s office in Gulshan.

He said leaders and activists of a political party were once again spreading false narratives, using the same language and slogans previously employed to mislead the public.

India is trying to redraw its strategies. One argument being - if Pragmatic diplomacy means New Delhi foreign policy engine room can work or coordinate with military rulers in Myanmar; why not it evolve the new branding with possible and radical Islamists in Bangladesh.

The new Moditva doctrine ideally is we should have friends everywhere. 

That means the sloganeering "Bhaj pa - Jamaat bhai bhai " can also be seen as a new era evolution.

Globally, there is a never-ending debate over whether voters are driven more by policies or personalities. In Bangladesh, where most political parties are leader-centric rather than bottom-up democratic organisations, experience suggests that leaders—not policies—win elections. Policies rarely influence the masses.

 Manifestos, therefore, receive little serious scrutiny as tools to judge a party, its candidates, or a leader’s electability. It is no surprise that manifestos have become the least of priorities in the February 12 election for major parties vying for power. 

So far, leaders have been announcing policies at campaign rallies in a fragmented manner rather than releasing them as a cohesive package, selectively targeting different segments of the electorate.

Changing Dynamics :::: 

Bangladesh often seems to treat foreign policy as subject to seasonal political moods. If one government is branded “India-friendly,” another “China-leaning,” then a third is cast as “Washington’s favourite.”

 In reality, Dhaka engages all three powers every day—on trade, loans, borders, security, climate, migration, the Bay of Bengal, etc. But it does so without a clearly stated hierarchy of interests and without a stable policy framework that survives elections and domestic political manoeuvring. This is a major weakness of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. 

Moreover, political actors often use foreign policy as a weapon in partisan storytelling for a domestic audience. So India becomes a symbol, not a relationship. 

China becomes a chequebook, not a strategy. The United States becomes either a saviour or a conspirator, depending on who is speaking and who is under pressure.

Ends