"That was not an organic revolution, it (Aug 2024 regime change) was a terrorist takeover to bring down our democratic government,” said A.F.M. Bahauddin Nasim, joint general secretary of Awami League.
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| Bangladesh Army chief and US envoy to Dhaka |
The BNP has established sufficient lead in the historic 13th parliamentary polls. If the trends continue, BNP chief and son of former Prime Minister khaleeda Zia; - Tarique Rehman is set to be next Prime Minister.
The outcome could be setback for the US and Pakistan as a lot was allegedly invested. But the results will force external forces to decide the future of Mohammed Yunus and also could possibly open new doors for ousted PM Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League. The BNP was leading in maximum out of which results and trends available so far.
Ousted leader and also served with death sentence, Sheikh Hasina is in constant communication with her people in Bangladesh and India.
She is still inspiring party activists, party leaders, grassroots leaders and other professional bodies.
Hasina is of course trying to make her party ready for the upcoming struggle.
The Awami League was banned in 2024 and the Bangladesh Chhatra League was labelled a “terrorist organisation” by the interim government.
Several Awami League leaders face multiple charges of sedition and crimes against humanity, which they deny.
“Our leader is very hopeful she will return to Bangladesh. We believe Sheikh Hasina will come back as a hero," said a prominent Chhatra League leader.
Over the past year, senior party leaders including former MPs and cabinet ministers, have been routinely summoned from Kolkata and other hideouts to meet Hasina to discuss party strategy. Saddam Hussain, president of the Awami league students wing, Bangladesh Chhatra League, was among them.
Exiled politicians of the Awami League are reportedly plotting their political comeback. But all these are easier said than done.
India has been a crucial lifeline for keeping Awami League party activities and organisation going. But lately, India signaled outreach to the BNP and this is being seen as part of pushing the pragmatic diplomatic policy.
If BNP achieves majority. Tarique takes over as PM
- BNP may removes Yunus and his associates will get a snub
- Tarique likely to take support of the Bangladesh Army led by Gen Waker
- Relations may improve with India.
Since independence, Bangladesh has gone to the polls twelve times and another one is knocking at the door. Yet across this long journey, one fact stands out. No ruling party ever lost an election held under it.
The Awami League first tasted victory while in office in 1973. Decades later, it regained power in 1996, 2008 and in three consecutive elections -- 2014, 2018, and 2024.
The 2014 and 2024 contests were condemned as “one-sided”, boycotted by the opposition.
The 2018 election carried even darker allegations: ballot boxes stuffed the night before voting. Critics branded all three as “sham polls”. The 1973 election was also equally one-sided.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had its moments too, winning in 1979 and again in 1991, the short-lived February 1996 election as well as in 2001. The Jatiya Party, under military ruler HM Ershad, claimed back-to-back victories in 1986 and 1988 -- both boycotted, both one-sided.
The other fact that also stands out in Bangladesh’s electoral journey is that every single election considered fair was conducted under an interim or caretaker government.
Four elections -- 1991, June 1996, 2001, and 2008 -- were held under caretaker or interim governments.
Each time, the previous incumbent lost, proving that free and fair elections could indeed change power and further that none of the parties had been able to overcome the anti-incumbency factor with dedicated groundwork.
But the broader record tells another story.
Bangladesh has endured five one-sided polls -- 1986, 1988, February 1996, 2014, and 2024 -- each marked by opposition boycotts.
"From her well-guarded, secret hideout in the Indian capital, Delhi, Hasina spends her days in hours of party meetings and calls with her cadre back in Bangladesh. Her political activities take place under the watchful eye of the Indian government – a close ally of Hasina’s when she was in power – which has pointedly ignored Bangladesh’s requests for her extradition," commented London's The Guardian
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