Tomorrow, Today and Yesterday !! This is the best way to look at politics. Occasionally, one can change the manner you look at it. In such a scenario, start with Yesterday, travel to Today and then reach Tomorrow !!
Essentially, we are trying to examine can BJP really touch the figure of 370 as estimated by PM Narendra Modi during the Lok Sabha debate.
Some analysts say 'Momentum' is in favour of the BJP; and hence it is possible. At the second level, one can talk about statistics and these are vital ones. The saffron party's internal assessment is the party will gain some 'additional seats' in two eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal.
Of course, the strike rate was immensely satisfactory in 2018 when the BJP won 18 seats proving the prophets of doom wrong. By 2021 in West Bengal, in the name of 'Sickularism' and a fierce political polarisation, the Left and the Congress have lost ground. The assembly score for the communists and the Congress (which under Rahul has turned almost a communist) was zero.
Now in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha, BJP's Himanta Biswa Sarma said, "Our target for West Bengal will be 35 seats". The state has 42 seats -- third highest in India after Uttar Pradesh (80) and Maharashtra (48).
It is also crucial to note that in 2019 polls while the BJP won 303 seats; it was importantly runner up in 72 others.
Now the BJP poll strategists feel some of these 72 could be breached. Let us presume, it can add 'four-five percent' vote share in these seats; then what happens?
Left to their own calculations, BJP insiders say about 40 seats (out of 72) can actually come in. They are eyeing 10-12 more in Mamata's turf.
This will be a huge setback to Mamata Banerjee. But given the bad name her party has earned following corruption and cash-currency games involving the likes of her aide and ex Minister, Partha Chatterjee, it is possible people's anguish could be reflected.
West Bengal actually has a peculiar 'BJP friendly' tale from the 1990s.
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| Feet on ground !! Blogger |
In retrospective, both TMC and BJP were allies. Thus, the sourness is certainly at peak for friends-turned-foes!
During 1998 parliamentary polls – hardly a year after its formation, the Trinamool Congress had helped BJP get a toehold in the erstwhile ‘Lal Durg’ - red forte.
The BJP and the Trinamool Congress had picked up eight seats with a combined vote share of 34.63 per cent as the communists' ideology and perceived Bengali temperament for the Left principles almost paled into insignificance in many areas.
Ms Banerjee herself made a mark for herself emerging as a key regional leader and making it to union cabinet. Trinamool vote share was 24.43 taking almost two-thirds of the Congress vote and Mamata Banerjee’s candidates snatched six from Congress kitty and one from Forward Bloc to make a seven ‘win’ out of 21 candidates it fielded.
The BJP’s vote share made a quantum leap from 6.85 per cent to above 10 per cent though 13 of its other candidates had to bite the dust.Thus if today, the Congress or the Left parties blame Mamata Didi for showing the saffron party the ‘gate way’ to enter Bengal, they have good reasons.
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| Manipur CM Biren |
The BJP is hoping some additional seats in Odisha, a few more in Assam and other northeastern states too. Interestingly, over enthusiastic BJP leaders say in fact from UP, the party could yet again set eyes on around 75-77 seats. In 2014, the BJP had won 71 and NDA tally was 73 out of 80. Moreover, now there are talks about Jayant Chowdhury of RLD in UP inching closer to the BJP.
The RLD was a chief opponent of BJP in last two polls and Jayant has a sizable support base among Jats.
Moreover, Nitish Kumar's return to the NDA has definitely given a boost to NDA even as last time, the BJP-led alliance had won 39 out of 40 seats from Bihar. The BJP may improve tally from Jharkhand as well.
BJP may take away 'more seats' from its allies:
When Modi said, 370 for BJP and 400 for NDA; he actually meant 30 for alliance partners. Importantly, the NDA tally in 2019 after poll results were - 353 and BJP was 303.
That means 50 belonged to NDA partners. In state such as Maharashtra, it is clear, the BJP will contest more seats in Lok Sabha polls than it contested last time.
These number management will only contribute to give the BJP and its leader Narendra Modi -- an huge advantage.
ends
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