Two years of Russia-Ukraine conflict.... Putin knows Russian economy booming ::: Why is Modi-Jaishankar-Doval trio is also smiling?

(India has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the rules-based international order, which has allowed it to rise and prosper in a peaceful Asia. Should Ukraine fall, India would lose this stability. Tailwan's may be China's first target but in a disinhibited world, India's northeast with its Assamese oil, would surely follow. - 

Columnist Anatasia Pilliavasky in Odessa in Ukraine)

The Indian government and especially the trio PM Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and NSA, Ajit Doval are smiling. As the third year of Russia-Ukraine conflict begins on Feb 24, 2024,  the trio realise that they have done a fine balanced and tight-rope walking. 

However, a few take aways: 

* The West and especially America did not expect at all that after 24 months the war, the Russian economy is actually booming.

Putin and Dr Jaishankar: Protocol does not matter 

* Russia has 'successfully' adjusted to the requirements of the time and also readapt to the new kind of war. The fact of the matter is since 2021, the Russian military production has grown by a staggeringly 400 per cent.

* This is a war -- which is nowhere ending. However, common people in both the countries Russia and UKraine want an end to these arm conflicts. 72 per cent of Ukranians favour 'talks' and early end to the war.

$$ 

Only 23 per cent of Ukranians believe that they can win the war 'militarily', this was about 35 per cent some time back.

$$ Even in Russia even as apparently there is no drop in Vladimir's popularity; most Russians are also against the concept of war. 

  

India handled the Russia-UKraine conflict with matured diplomacy and stayed away from condemning Russia. The sensible and nuanced approach ensured India cheap supply of Russian oil at a heavy discounted price. 

The Sickular, Modi-bashing and Congress and communist eco system might not admit, but Indians also benefited even as the war affected the global supply chains and commodity prices.  

The reference to 2022 high-drama is relevant.   

British foreign secretary Liz Truss had tried to dub the first month long war (by March 2022) as one between democracies and autocracies, but India, the world’s most populous democracy, did not buy that line.

In other words, New Delhi has been insistent about its national interest and is still unwilling to break years-old ties with Russia on matters of arms sales, gas and a future realignment of the global security architecture.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told a TV channel, "I would put my country's national interests first and I would put my energy security first....Why should I not buy it (gas)? I need it for my people".

At the same time during a panel discussion with British foreign secretary Liz Truss, EAM Dr Jaishankar almost lampooned at European double standards.

“If you look at the major buyers of oil and gas from Russia, I think you’ll find most of them are in Europe. We ourselves get the bulk of our energy supplies from the Middle East....maybe less than one percent from Russia".

Lavrov said: “These days our western colleagues would like to reduce any meaningful international issue to the crisis in Ukraine … We appreciate that India is taking this situation in the entirety of facts, not just in a one-sided way. 

I can only say that the balanced position of India which is not influenced by blackmail or diktat methods inspires our respect.”

Experts such as analyst Aydin Sezer based in Ankara in Turkey says: Two factors mat decide the fate of ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.... 

One, "somewhat paradoxically, it will likely conclude faster if Donald Trump wins the US-election". 

Secondly, he says -- An end to the war will be also brought nearer of Zelensky is forced to resign as the president of Ukraine. 

"At the least this will give push to a peace discussion. But even in this scenario, domestic dynamics will not be the only shaping factor. Western preference will again have a big vote".