Mission 370-400 :::: How will BJP perform in West Bengal and Odisha ? --- Probable seats in Bengal, Team Modi may win

Four Arunachal MLAs switch Ahead Of Polls, BJP now has 56 legislators in 60-member assembly 

In the run up to the 2024 parliamentary polls, a few essential questions those have cropped the minds of Neta class, journalists and analysts include -- Can BJP repeat 2019 in Cow-belt and western states especially Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Himachal and Delhi?

Another question is how would BJP perform in West Bengal and Odisha ? In the Mamata Banerjee-ruled state stakes are high as the saffron outfit had won 18 out of 42 seats in 2019. The prophets of doom were proved wrong. The BJP has set a target of 35 seats in 2024 -- while admittedly this is on the higher side, but if the party manages anything 25-27; they would be more than delighted. 

In 2014, the BJP vote share was 17 per cent and seats were only 2 -- Darjeeling and Asansol. But in 2019, the number of seats jumped to 18 and the vote share had skyrocketed to a sensational 40 per cent. The party also won many seats where it did not have much of a base earlier. 

Now a closer look at the seats -- which the poll strategists of the BJP think they can win in 2024. 

The statistics of 2019 could appear nightmarish for the Trinamool Congress.  

In 2014, TMC won 34 and so when it dropped to 22 in 2019, there was a drop of 12 seats. In contrast, BJP with 2 seats win in 2014 managed 16 seats more in 2019. 

The vote percentage -- Trinamool Congress 43.3% and BJP - 40.7%

Swing --- Increase 3.48 per cent for Mamata but for the BJP, the increase in vote share was 22.76 per cent. 

** Alipurdwar (in North Bengal) 

BJP nominee John Barla had won the seat by polling 54.4 per cent vote as against only 37 per cent by TMC nominee. John Barla is now the Union Minister of State of Minority Affairs. 

** Arambagh

(This was won by TMC's Aparupa Poddar and the difference of votes was marginal - 1142)

** Asansol 

(BJP's Babul Supriyo had won in 2014 and 2019. But the singer-turned-neta is now in TMC. In 2019, TMC nominee was actress Moon Moon Sen. After Supriyo quit the seat, the Trinamool Congress could wrest the seat through popular film star Shatrughan Sinha. It remains to be seen whether he will be fielded again by Mamata Banerjee and also more importantly, who will be BJP candidate.)

Bahrampur:

This is traditional bastion of Congress stalwart Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury; and is till considered the stronghold of Chowdhury, also a bitter Mamata critic. 

** Balurghat, 

The BJP won the seat in 2019 and the present lawmaker is state unit chief Sukanta Majumdar and hence the Lotus party may get all the necessary advantage here. 

Bangaon: 

Its considered a BJP bastion due to CAA -related politics and incumbent MP is Shantanu Thakur 

Bankura: In 2019, BJP's Subhas Sarkar had won the seat.

Here it may be relevant to point out that Lok Sabha seats that flipped from Trinamool Congress to BJP in 2019 were 

Bangaon, Alipurduar, Balurghat, Bankura, Barrackpore, Bishnupur, Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Hooghly, Medinipur, Ranaghat and Purulia. 

Suvendu Adhikari- defeated Mamata in Nandigram in 2021 assembly segment

Other seats BJP has identified include Barasat, Bardhaman East, Basirhat, Birbhum, Bishnupur, Bolpur, Burdhaman-Durgapur, Coochbehar and Darjeeling.

The Lotus party has ambitiously set a target for Diamon Harbour but most likely it will not not win as no less than Mamata's much influential nephew Abhishek Banerjee is the AITC lawmaker. 

Dumdum is also in BJP's target list. TMC's Saugata Roy is the sitting MP but he may not contest due to age factor. Saugata Roy is also brother of veteran BJP leader Tathagatha Roy. 

Ghatal seat is being represented by TMC leader and actor Deepak Adhikari (Dev). In 2019, he had defeated BJP's Bharati Ghosh. But in 2014, all sorts of speculation is on. 

The actor Dev resigned  from three government committees lately. 

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Among other seats, the BJP is eyeing Howrah and Hooghly and between these two, Howrah will be tough segment to breach. The Howrah Lok Sabha constituency is represented by popular football player Prasun Banerjee.  

In September 2022, Trinamool Congress MP Prasun Banerjee had triggered a controversy by expressing surprise on why party colleague and Kamarhati MLA Madan Mitra was not considered for the Sports portfolio in the Mamata Banerjee cabinet.

Jangipur and Jadavpur are also in saffron party's target list; but TMC likely to win both while Jaynagar and Jhargram are two seats, the saffron party may win comfortably. 

Congress MLAs join BJP in Arunachal Pradesh

Assembly elections are due in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Odisha along with Lok Sabha polls.

The ruling BJP in Arunachal Pradesh has received a boost in its numerical strength in the Assembly, with four legislators joining the party. Two MLAs each from Congress and Nationalist People's Party have switched to the BJP. 

The BJP now has 56 members in the Assembly, the Congress has two and two legislators are Independents.

The switchovers come months ahead of the Assembly polls in Arunachal Pradesh, which will held alongside the Lok Sabha election.

Congress MLAs Ninong Ering and Wanglin Lowandong and NPP legislators Mutchu Mithi and Gokar Basar joined the BJP in the presence of Chief Minister Pema Khandu at an event in state capital Itanagar. Assam minister and BJP's election in-charge for Arunachal, Ashok Singhal, was also present.

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