The BJP is eyeing double digits vote share in Tamil Nadu. The number of seats may not be their concern as despite hype not many seats especially for itself, that is for the saffron party, may come into its kitty.
The end of alliance with the AIADMK was a matter of concern though the BJP leaders expressed it so clearly.
Tamil Maanila Congress (Moonapar) on Monday, February 26, joined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The seat sharing talks between the BJP and Tamil Maanila Congress is yet to be ironed out.
This is yet another psychological booster.
Founded by Late G K Moopanar, Tamil Maanila Congress had P Chidambaram as a key leader and by virtue of that, Chidambaram (PC) could become Finance Minister under H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral.
At present this faction of Tamil Maanila Congress is led by former union minister G K Vasan, Late Moopanar's son.
It has become the first from Tamil Nadu to join the NDA after AIADMK walked out of the alliance in 2023.
In another right signaling, Vasan will attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi's public meeting at Palladam in Tirupur district on February 27. It goes without stating that the BJP has been a struggling outfit in Tamil Nadu like most parts of south India.
The 2019 elections for Tamil Nadu's 39 seats in the 17th Lok Sabha were held on 18 April and the alliance led by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won a landslide victory, taking 38 of the 39 seats.
Performance in Tamil Nadu - that has 39 seats and also in Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh will be extremely crucial for the BJP to achieve the high target of 370 plus on its own.
In 2019, BJP contested five seats ad scored a zero. Even all its NDA partners did very bad.
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
Pattali Makkal Katchi
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam
Puthiya Tamilagam
Tamil Maanila Congress
and Puthiya Neethi Katchi -- were all part of NDA alliance but the leadership in the state was with AIADMK. This party could win one seat.
But politics is also a game of possibilities and hence all the hard work is on in Tamil Nadu. The vote share of BJP was near negligible 3.6 percent and therefore to take the vote percentage to double digits will be a near miracle.
Besides 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, the saffron party faces stiff contest in Karnataka (28 seats), Telangana (17) and Andhra Pradesh (25).
These four seats account 109 seats.
The YSRCP swept the 2019 elections, winning 22 of the 25 seats and N Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP was reduced to just 3 seats. Both the national parties the BJP and the Congress were decimated, not winning any seat. In Telangana, since Decembr 2023, political situation has changed with Congress able to capture power.
Now the Congress people are confident that the 'positive' impact of Telangana performance will be reflected in another Telugu speaking state.
Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy's sister Y S Sharmila Reddy is now pradesh Congress chief and she has vowed to take the battle into her brother's YSRCP.
There was a political showdown in Andhra Pradesh as state Congress chief Y S Sharmila Reddy said that last week one evening she stayed at the Congress office to "escape" the state government's alleged attempt to house-arrest her.
Andhra Pradesh also goes for assembly polls along with the Lok Sabha and therefore politics of next few months will be more than crucial. N Chandrababu-led TDP is back in the BJP-led NDA fold.
But what happens on ground remains to be seen !! In 2019, Congress vote share was 1.31 per cent and BJP's marginally low at 0.98 per cent. The the Congress has an advantage and also 'disadvantage'. While it had a solid base having ruled the 'united Andhra Pradesh' for decades and even lately since 2004; there is a latent sentiment in Andhra Pradesh against Congress for 'dividing' the state and also doing it amid violence.
Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan who is also a NDA ally said they will contest in 24 Assembly seats and 3 MP seats while pointing out that the seat allocation was done keeping BJP in mind.
In Karnataka, BJP performed very well in 2019 having won 25 out of 28. Congress won only 1 seat and JD(S) won 1 seat and an Independent (supported by BJP) also won one Seat.
Now in 2024, JD(S) is a BJP partner and the Congress is back in power in the state with a landslide victory in May 2023. Hence in some parliamentary seats, the saffron party is bound to face stiff competition.
In 2019, Karnataka offered an electoral puzzle for poll pundits as well. BJP's performance turned out better than its 2014 tally of 17.
In contrast, Congress vote share dropped and number of seat(s) came down from 9 to 1.
BJP won 8 seats more than 2014 taking it to 25 and its vote percentage was staggeringly high 51.38.
The BJP will have to continue to work hard in Telangana and Karnataka to maintain its 2019 magical grip. In Telangana, the Congress is also in resurgent form this time.
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