Electoral contests always mean see-saw ride, especially for the BJP. Some experiments often at the cost of swallowing own pride work very well.
In the past, the saffron outfit succeeded in breaking new ground.
Prashant Kishore said "Make no mistake, BJP will be getting double digit vote share this time in Tamilnadu."
He said In Telangana, BJP got 14% votes which is a very good launching pad for a party like BJP.
Only 3 months back he had said, "BJP will be a political force in Tamilnadu much bigger & stronger than what most people would like to believe".
Its entry into corridors of power in Assam and even states such as Maharashtra has legendary type stories. But the hard work and sustained planning and long term vision always help. But there are stories, they still need to work harder and discover new formulae. Some of these are often not understood at the face value. Trial and Error does come in handy, as analysts put it.
First few attempts could not fetch dividends, but such scenarios did not deter the saffron outfit and their RSS-background groomed leaders and Pracharaks.
Now that the BJP has captured power in Assam and credit is being given to meticulous campaigning and projection of the new leadership of Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma, old-timers know it well that the ground work had started almost a generation back. It was the likes of late Kushabhau Thakre and late Bansilal Soni who laid the foundation of making forays into Assam.
"Even thinking about BJP was discouraged in Assam in those days," said S. Angad Singh in 2016 in in Karbi Anglong region of Assam after Sonowal government was sworn in. This is just one instance.
After BJP suffered a mega setback in Bihar in 2015 polls in a virtual straight fight between PM Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, analysts especially Sickularism-smitten English media said, the countdown for Modi's downfall had began.
But the saffron strategists quickly made the recovery journey. In 2016, it won Assam.
The BJP victory dealt a severe blow to Tarun Gogoi and also Congress party. It was left with only six state governments by May 2016.
BJP leaders said that the victory in Assam "will have an impact on national politics and help build its campaign for the crucial Uttar Pradesh and Manipur assembly polls in 2017".
In 2017, the BJP came to power in Goa, UP and also Manipur. Objective analysis will make one understand that the Modi-Amit Shah duo has not looked back since then. The BJP continued to gain new ground, retained hold in states such as Gujarat and on the other hand, the Congress kept losing states after states.
However, there are some difficult states -- wherein the BJP has to still struggle. In Southern India out of 131 seats - there are as many as 84 seats which BJP never won.
States such as Kerala, Adhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are quite tough and continues to be so. It could be surprising, there is another state where the saffron party does not find going easy - that's Punjab. In 2014, even Arun Jaitley lost the seat to Congress veteran Capt Amarinder Singh by a margin of over 3 lakh votes.
(Modi never had the luxury or occasion -- to look for any excuse for failure.)
Since 2014, PM Modi has linked each election -- small state or large - and of course the Lok Sabha battles of 2019 (and now fast approaching of 2024) to governance. Generally the refrain from BJP supporters also has been that there are high expectations in terms of governance.
Now for a tough state such as Kerala, the BJP leadership has been trying to make use of three Christian leaders - Alphons Joseph Kannanthanam, a former civil servant, Tom Vadakkan (who handled media department in AICC) and Anil Antony, son of Congress veteran A K Antony.
'The Christian/Catholic angle' has been always a crucial aspect of BJP's election campaign strategy in Kerala. Moreover, the downward slippery journey of Indian communists, electorally and in exerting influence on the sociopolitical mindset, has been phenomenal in the last decade.
In the regions/pockets where the communists are losing their grip, the pro-Hindu BJP has been gaining. But both in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and in the battle for state legislature in 2021, the saffron party could not win seats.
The BJP or the NDA coalition received a dip in vote share and lost their lone seat as Marxist veteran Pinarayi Vijayan became the first Chief Minister of Kerala to be re-elected after completing a full five-year term in office. In 2021 assembly polls in Kerala, BJP fought the polls in partnership with smaller parties such as Bharath Dharma Jana and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
In 2016, P.C. George, who contested as an independent candidate from Poonjar, had joined the NDA.
On Christmas, Dec 25, 2023, PM Modi hosted Christians in his official residence - large number of them were Catholics. From time to time, data does come out showing the BJP 'gaining ground' in Kerala and possibly even Catholics backing them in some quarters.
But it is underscored that the Christian support "is not moral or ideological".
Of course the reason for the Church’s accommodation of the BJP is merely instrumental and especially for 'protecting' Christian/Church vast power and resources.
The first Christian MP who was elected on a NDA ticket to the Lok Sabha in Kerala was PC Thomas, the leader who broke away from the regional Kerala Congress party. And this was in 2004. More than one Kerala leaders have been made Governors, yet the going is tough.
There have been other leaders such as A. P Abdullakutty. Once he was CPI-M, MLA and MP, and also joined Congress. He was expelled from Congress for praising Narendra Modi in 2019. He too joined the Lotus party and also became the 'influential' chairman of the Haj committee of India. Earlier in Kerala, prominent faces such as former Chairman of ISRO, G Madhavan Nair also joined the BJP.
Former Union Minister Alphons (a Christian) made news recently when he said, “The entire country and all the communities are united in endorsing the Ram temple. I think this is the beginning of a long journey of uniting the country. No more battles, no more wars. I think Ram is going to be a unifying force".
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| Anil Antony with Piyush Goyal |
The BJP is also working hard in states such as Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
ends
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