Nitish Kumar's 'Paltu Ram' game is also linked to JD-U losing grip pretty fast in Bihar. In 2020 assembly it was far behind BJP. Otherwise checkout these data:
In 2010, JDU secured 115 seats out of 243 in the Bihar Assembly. It was the emergence of Si-sashan man. In 2015, JD-U seats came down to 71 and RJD his 'dominating partner'.
In 2020, he was back with BJP and this time his tally dropped by 28 seats and the tally was a modest 43 seats —almost a one-third of 2010.
Dec 2023 polls debacle, Ram Mandir and Nitish shocker -- A Season to reflect for India’s Opposition
Indian Opposition parties were hardly united. They hardly could think of backing a creditable face to offer.
Yet, analysts believed, it stands to reason that the most critical foil to the BJP’s religious-nationalist card in the coming elections was the united opposition, I.N.D.I alliance of Congress and powerful regional satraps.
They had the 'resolve' understandably to oust Prime Minister Modi, who had won 2014 and 2019 with a decisive headcount -- in fact BJP's tally jumped to 303 in 2019 giving them 37-38 per cent votes.
But last two months, the tide has practically reversed; and things stand pathetically in favour of Modi and against the opposition Congress and others.
But it is also true, the Opposition parties were overestimating their strengths and under estimating Narendra Modi's political acumen.
There is always a mega problem. A section of intellectuals and English media are always around to give the Congress and other 'secular' parties some false hopes. In 2019, 'media friends' obliged 24 Akbar Road and the Chowkidar slogan boomeranged.
Rahul Gandhi was basking in a well calculated campaign that he has proposed the name for the 26-party coalition -- INDIA.
In the excitement or otherwise, Congress says it is not interested in getting the PM post. Changing UPA to "I.N.D.I.A" has possibly opened another Pandora's Box. A Congress leader says, "Technically, there was nothing wrong in UPA".
Rahul Gandhi's 'Eureka moment' in 2023-24 may also backfire.
BHARAT came in replacing India. Nothing happens in the BJP in isolation.
In 2020, we know, there was a plea in the Supreme Court that claimed that the name of the country be changed to Bharat or Hindustan. The bench headed by Chief Justice S A Bobde in its order said that the petition could be considered by the "appropriate ministries". It did not reject.
After December 2023 elections win, came Jan 22, 2024, a day for the BJP to show the trump card in the run-up to the general elections. And thirdly, now opposition alliance is breaking up.
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| Mom-son duo left politically cornered |
Regional parties are blaming the Congress for being high handed and indecisive. Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal dumped Congress first. Now Nitish Kumar in Bihar.
If optics matters, Jagdish Shettar’s return to the saffron fold in Karnataka is another illustration to suggest that post-Mandir, it has surely been a bad week for the Congress. On Jan 14, Rahul had launched Bharat Jodo 2, but in Mumbai his friend Milind Deora quit Congress.
"Ayodhya’s story was central to the BJP’s rise. But while Congress and other opposition parties boycotted the ceremony, they have failed to mount an effective challenge to Mr Modi’s dangerous majoritarianism and have at times succumbed to its dominance.
The message is not simply of Hindu triumph, but of grievance and revenge. “We must not bow down any more. We must not sit down any more,” Mr Modi said on Monday (Jan 22)," commented 'The Guardian' newspaper in London.
All these work in favour of BJP vis-a-vis 400 plus target.
The opposition thus faces a “herculean task” ... "huge challenge" -- as they put it. In simpler words, You need a programme which will enthuse people, which will be seen as an alternative to Modi. On the other hand, the BJP has a clearer roadmap.
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| blogger : Politics is playing cards well |
The BJP under Modi swept to power in 2014 on a pitch for stability and growth from what he described as the corruption and poor governance of Congress. It consolidated the victory by boosting the economy, offering more welfare and pushing an aggressive brand of Hindu nationalism, winning a second term in 2019 with 30 seats more.
There was no complacency. The Modi Govt abrogated Article 370 and in 2024, the magnificent Ram temple is now a reality. For opposition, politics has been always reactionary -- mostly waling into Modi's trap. Declining temple invite was such.
Jan 22 was a day for the opposition to 'calibrate' its response. Mamata Banerjee offered puja at a Kali temple in Kolkata to call for a needed campaign for communal unity. It was the day when several key opposition leaders politely turned down the invitation to visit Ayodhya but visited temples in Delhi (Arvind Kejriwal) and Maharashtra (Uddhav Thackeray). Even communists were guarded.
Rahul Gandhi battled obstacles in the BJP-ruled Assam to enter a Shankardeva shrine.
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| Bricks laying - 1989 Ayodhya |
Modi remains immensely popular and surveys show he is the favourite to win the 2024 election. Analysts say polls are soon becoming Modi verses 'no one'.
As Nitish episode surfaced, the Congress ill-timed Yatra actually came into focus.
Nitish started ignoring 'frantic calls' from Sonia Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge.
He carries with him the legacy of being a torchbearer for socialist worldview and has a clean image. It was on his call that various opposition parties converged in Patna for the first meeting. He was in that sense the nucleus of opposition unity.
Social justice, caste census etc were all his ideas.
But Mamata, Kejriwal and also Rahul declined to make him convener of the alliance. So, Nitish told his colleagues if we cannot defeat Modi, let us join him.
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