RaGa politics part 2 :::: Till 2019, Rahul failed thrice !! Now all eyes on 2024 ..... His Bharat Jodo has been billed as a 'successful' mission

(Madhya Pradesh goes to polls on Friday, Nov 17, 2023. One issue chiefly debated has been Congress leader Kamal Nath's Soft Hindutva. But this has not happened for the first time. In 2017 in the run up to the Gujarat polls, Rahul Gandhi visited 28 Hindu temples and the Congress won 18 seats in these constituencies where these temples are located.)

 In Jan 2013, Rahul Gandhi became AICC vice president. He was in office till 16th December 2017 when he elevated himself as party president. There were lot of expectations.  

In February-March 2018 polls, BJP and allies retained their hold in Nagaland and Tripura. Congress even lost Meghalaya and scored zero in Nagaland. In May 2018, Congress could, however, retain power with the support of JD-S in Karnataka even as the BJP was the single largest party.

In December 2018 -- just a few months before 2019 polls - Rahul and his Congress party tasted success. BJP was ousted in three key states Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In between Rahul discovered the slogan 'Desh Ka Chowkidar chor hae'. Rafale deal was the new talking point. 

The no confidence motion earlier that year (2018) went in favour of BJP and Narendra Modi. But by the turn of 2019 as the political battle intensified; Modi's macho-image of a strong and a decisive leader vis-a-vis Pakistan came handy. By May 30, 2019, Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister yet again and Rahul was humbled.  

In retrospect, one can recall some headlines and political interpretation. 

"Modi's reelection: A turning point in India's political history" --  was one such for a piece penned by the blogger for UCAN News.com 

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It was also interpreted that Bharat's ongoing march towards 'Hindu majoritarianism' would be seen as a near fatal situation for religious minorities. The new law Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was misinterpreted to a large extent and there were protests across India and especially in Delhi.  

“A new battle for the idea of India begins today,” wrote Shiv Visvanathan in 'The Hindu' on May 24, 2019 when the election results were declared. 

Kewekhape Therie, then president of the Nagaland state unit of the Indian National Congress and a Christian leader, clearly saw the outcome of the 2019 elections to be a mandate for “religion polarization".

Therie: Naga Congress leader 

As far as Rahul Gandhi was concerned; though the party lost under his leadership; there were few demands for his ouster. The CAA protest gave him a space to attack PM Modi for right as well as wrong reasons. It is also worth mentioning that by 2015-16 itself; Rahul had tried to present himself as a different neta. 

In May 2015, from Kozhikode in Kerala, Rahul wished the Modi government for completing one year in office stating, "Happy Birthday suit-boot ki sarkar".  He visited Pune on July 31, 2015 to lend support to students during their protest at the government-run Film and Television Institute of India (FTII). The Congress had begun concentrating on communists-variety of student politics and in Feb 2016, there was a huge row over his presence during a Tukde Tukde gang protest in Delhi. 

The Congress was part of the winning alliance with RJD and JD-U under Nitish Kumar in Bihar in 2015 but in May 2016, it lost the state of Assam.  In 2017, Congress returned to power in Punjab after 10 years of Akali rule -- but this was more like an expected mandate! And no much credit was given to Rahul.

But 2016-2017 also saw other developments in the country. There was Demonetisation, there was emergence of Yogi Adityanath as UP CM and then came the reform strategy called the GST. But desperation was showing up !

Rahul did not shy away in levelling unfounded and unverified allegations. He brought in Rafale allegations first time in Gujarat on the eve of polls which Congress almost won. He called GST -- the Gabbar Singh Tax. There was yet another significant takeaway. 

Rahul and his party realised the folly of being labeled as 'pro-Muslim' outfit and hence in about three months that he campaigned in Gujarat,  Rahul visited 28 Hindu temples and the Congress won 18 seats in these constituencies where these temples are located. The BJP poll strategists also had to take a closer look as the Congress had wrested 10 out of the 18 seats it won in these religious hubs.

Gujarat threw up a rather challenging mandate for Modi. BJP’s seats nosedived from 116 in 2012 to 99 in 2017 while Congress won 77 as against 61 in 2012. But the Congress party failed to keep up the tempo!

 

Though Rahul thought he was being aggressive and shrill against Modi; some of his remarks only left the party leaking the wounds. One such statement was on the floor of the Lok Sabha when he believed to have misquoted French president Emmanuel Macron. The government in France issued an official denial. He even misquoted an ailing Manohor Parrikar, former Defence Minister on Rafale. The fact of the matter was -- desperation was visible. 

Then came a Supreme Court verdict and at later stage he had to tender an apology too !! Voters too were hardly convinced about the allegation of a defence scam under Modi.

"The Nehru-Gandhis’ previous record of not fulfilling promise of exorcising poverty right from Jawaharlal Nehru to Indira Gandhi and from Rajiv Gandhi to Manmohan Singh government under Sonia Gandhi’s watch may have made Rahul’s Nyay promise unbelieveable," said an article in 'Times of India'. 

In 2018-2019; BJP national president Amit Shah, a trusted lieutenant of Modi, had said that if the party returned to power in 2019, it would be in power for next 50 years. This statement will come under closer scrutiny in 2024.  Well, some took these as 'threats' while BJP leaders said such statements were only a reflection of confidence in leadership PM Modi. The 2019 elections India also marked a significant drop in communist influence, mainly in the form of ideology.

This perhaps showed Congress attempts to ape Leftists biases may not do well in the long run. The communists had lost 2019 polls miserably in their so-called bastions in Kerala and West Bengal. Left parties did not win any of the 42 seats in West Bengal, where they ruled for 34 years until 2011. Although communists continue to run the state government in Kerala, they only won one of 20 seats in the state. 

Rahul had lost Amethi in UP and had shifted to a rather 'easy' constituency - Wayanad in Kerala. But in assembly polls in 2011, the Congress failed to return to power in Kerala.  

The BJP leaders, of course, have included temple visits and public prayers in their campaigns and would so even now. That resulted in Congress and other opposition leaders visiting temples to put on a show for the media. In 2023 assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh; Congress veteran Kamal Nath and Rahul's choice of Chief Minister, is playing Soft Hindutva to its hilt. 

Observers say the Congress marginalisation and BJP’s political growth is also linked to a surge of pro-Hindutva nationalism which reached great heights after Modi hardened his stance against arch-rival Pakistan. Indian politics been seen an approval of Modi’s muscular brand of nationalism. 

“This Hindutva politics makes a right synthesis along with the developmental agenda and the spirit of Hindutva values,” says political analyst Vidyarthi Kumar.

There is another factor that goes in favour of Modi. Some BJP leaders say the party won because “people admired our sincerity and the last-man-delivery".

People were content with what they got — the gas cylinders, rural houses and toilets. The Modi-Shah duo is banking on this. And there is RSS behind it -- pleased that Ram temple is a reality and Art 370 has been abrogated. Moreover, Yogi Adityanath is already a leader of the future !!