Namo-Nawaz Meet: A match-winner or lost in symbolism

Narendra Modi has nearly staged a near coup as the Ufa joint statement by India and Pakistan read out by two Foreign Secretaries at a joint briefing did not have the undeviating ‘K’ word.

How Sharif agreed to a draft without mention of Kashmir is a double-edged sword. It can mean India has won a point that Indo-Pak talks can pursue even without discussions on Kashmir or that Pakistani side is not taking the Ufa exercise seriously. For them perhaps a commitment from Modi, a hawkish Hindutva school leader in his own right, that talks will be revived is itself a take away.

Opposition parties in Pakistan were not starry-eyed about the Namo-Nawaz meet.

Senator Rehman Malik, a former Interior Minister, dispatched a press release that detailed his reading of the icebreaker. “The recent meeting [of] Modi with Sharif clearly demonstrates how disrespectful Mr Modi was towards Sharif,” Malik was quoted by a spokesman as saying.

Nawaz with his army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif

He compared Indian Prime Minister Modi to “the Tsar of Russia” as he described how the two state leaders interacted. Ms Shireen Mazari of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) expressed dismay over the manner she felt Sharif “appeased India” in the meeting. Mazari felt that Sharif’s invitation to the Indian head of state was unnecessary and “beyond the requirements of diplomatic protocol”, as the same would have gone out as a matter of routine.

“Modi raised Mumbai and Sharif agreed to ‘fast track’ the investigations. Not a word on Samjhota Express was uttered by PM Sharif,” she fumed. Sharif could face further protest when he returns home and there would lie the true test of the leadership mantle in Pakistan Prime Minister, otherwise a tough nut in politics. And this would also decide whether Ufa was a winner for peace and stability in the region or yet another case of mountain out of a mole hill.

A decisive leader particularly in Indian context means different things to different people. That is one of the many questions many people throw up when we discuss a leader like Narendra Modi, who has diehard admirers and hardcore critics. 

The latest move by PM Modi vis-à-vis Pakistan has thus sparked off a turbulent debate, has he done the right thing in trying to revive talks with Pakistan and will Pakistan again go back on its words.

Modi’s detractors in India including a large section of media call him Hitler – someone who has choked dissent even from his party seniors; but I among a minority – especially among the ‘liberal’ journos – that only a decisive and determined person can lead India to a new path. Thus Modi’s roadmap is understood from that perspective.

But what’s this latest round of Indo-Pak or to be specific Namo-Nawaz talks at Ufa in Russia? Predictably BJP is jubilant and party’s neo-Muslim face and an intellectual in his own right, M J Akbar, was fielded within minutes to snatch the credit for the ice-breaker meeting for Modi as well as the BJP itself.

“The meeting was a breakthrough, the reason for this is very clear as for the first time Pakistan has accepted our definition of terrorism," he said.

But Congress is skeptical and tried to dismiss the efforts as being “nothing unique”. A more sensible voice about diplomacy in Congress, Shashi Tharoor has put it rather practically saying, “the taste of the pudding is in its eating”.

Vajpayee, Musharraf

In other words, a lot depends on the delivery level and that too from Pakistan, where Nawaz Sharif could be the Prime Minister but the diplomatic engine room vis-à-vis India is most of the time is in the military camp.

So, what next? Omar Abdullah says while he is “not pessimistic”; he does not want to be “over optimistic either”.

Frankly, years back Atal Behari Vajpayee had tried to put Indo-Pak dialogue at the core of his foreign policy. His Lahore Bus journey and classic oneliner in a some-what enemy country: “apki chini khae…kaafi mithi thi” was a heart-winner.

India had imported sugar from Pakistan that year. But things got derailed and things were again sabotaged at Agra chiefly owing to hawkish stance taken by Gen Pervez Musharraf as also Vajpayee’s longtime friend L K Advani and his blue-eyed girl Sushma Swaraj (the then I&B Minister).

when Pakistan was founded !

A few Modi detractors are already singing “u-turn” theme song and refusing to give Modi the benefit of time – till Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif can actually deliver.

“Is making a U-turn necessarily a bad thing in politics and governance?,” asks columnist Shekhar Gupta while he answers himself; “The truth is, four big turnarounds Modi as Prime Minister has made on his party's pre-election position are pragmatic and in our larger interest”.

The references are to nuclear deal with the US, LBA with Bangladesh, India’s stand vis-à-vis China and now the talks with Pakistan, which was abandoned eight months back.

To take the discussion forward, we need to examine will Nawaz Sharif deliver or more specifically will he have the ‘power’ to deliver? In Pakistan the control of army is now in the hands of army chief General Raheel Sharif, incidentally a former protégé of Gen Pervez Musharraf.

Moreover, Gen Raheel Sharif at his tender age of 15 had lost his elder brother in Bangladesh war in 1971. So there’s a scar that remains as a ‘bitter pain’ in Gen Sharif’s psyche as well as in the psyche of all Pakistanis. The Bangldesh (or East Pakistan) fester was only renewed for Pakistan when Narendra Modi made a very candid but bitter speech in Dhaka.

No Pakistani General should be considered a moderate. To cap it, on June 3, 2015, Gen Sharif  at the National Defence University in Islamabad had said, "Kashmir is an unfinished agenda of partition. Kashmir and Pakistan are inseparable."

So is there a meeting point really?

In the ultimate analysis, Indo-Pak tie is a no-win diplomatic tussle. However, the Indian media generally go overboard when there is any India-Pakistan meeting. But it could be going back to the basic if there is any major terrorist attack. All hopes will be dashed and it will fall like a house of cards.

Just as the saying goes: Lamhe ne khata ki hae; sadiyon ne saja pae hae !!

ends 

PM Modi's Central Asia sojourn: A Game changer

Diplomacy is also known as an instrument of winning new friends and enhancing trust with old friends. Carrying his distinct imprint on India’s foreign policy frame work forward, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has embarked on a crucial visit of Central Asian countries. PM Modi is right on his track.

He has already visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, whom he has rightly described as India’s “valued friend”. In the recent past Central Asia has remained only a sub-text in Indian foreign policy paradigm as New Delhi remained largely engaged in South Asia and also big powers like the US and Russia and partly BRICS.

Therefore, Prime Minister Modi’s maiden visit to these Central Asian countries has raised positive vibes more than curiosity. 

Namo at the L.N Gumilev National Univrsity, Astana, Kazakhstan

Many are already calling it a likely game-changer. 

At Astana, Kazakhstan capital, Modi only articulated his keenness for making forward movement in the ties when he said India and Central Asia have influenced each other profoundly over the last 2000 years.

In Uzbekistan too, Prime Minister set the ball rolling on the right track by stating at a joint press conference with Uzbek President Islam Karimov that India’s  relationship with the region has ancient roots and left a strong imprint on both.

“It now occupies a significant place in India’s future,” Quote-Unquote he said to an enthusiastic response from his hosts.

Besides these two countries and also Russia where he is to attend the BRICS summit and also the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Ufa, Modi will also visit Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Observers see the visit to strategically located region as critical because besides providing access to hydrocarbons and uranium, these former Republics of erstwhile Soviet Union can be helpful in dealing with terror threats in the region.

Modi paying tribute at the bust of Lal Bahadur Shastri at Tashkent, Uzbekistan  

PM Modi has himself given confirmation to the significance of ties with countries like Uzbekistan, when he held very productive discussions with President Karimov. Both sides agreed for expanding economic cooperation, combating terrorism, advancing stability and promoting regional integration. 

In Tashkent, among other agenda, the Prime Minister paid tributes to Lal Bahadur Shastri’s memorial as the former Prime Minister had breathed his last in that country. He thanked Uzbekistan profoundly for preserving the legacy of India’s second Prime Minister.Crucial part of his interactions was with Indologists, Hindi language students and Indian community members.

Modi also released the first Uzbek-Hindi dictionary along with his Uzbek counterpart and Indologist Rakhmatov.

He said importance of Hindi language will increase further internationally as India is on course of economic advancement. Noting that the pacts inked between India and Uzbekistan in the field of culture and tourism will bring people of the two countries closer, Modi said, “Few countries can match Uzbekistan in nurturing Hindi and Indian culture”.

President Karimov and Prime Minister Modi also reached understanding on a wide range of issues to further deepen Uzbekistan-India strategic relations. The two leaders discussed ways to implement the contract for supply of uranium from Uzbekistan signed last year.

Modi with Kazakh PM Karim Massimov 

The pact was signed for supply of 2,000 metric tonnes of Uranium.

At Astana in Kazakhstan capital, in his address at the Nazarbayev University, Modi said India’s engagement with Central Asia has been short of promise and added that he is determined to change it with closer cooperation.

India is at the crossroads of Asia’s land and sea routes, Prime Minister said while emphasizing that his government is already working with a sense of priority to connect well to both the East and the West. 

And thus success of connectivity through and across Central Asia is important, he said.

He inaugurated the India-Kazakhstan Centre of Excellence in Information and Communication Technology.

National Monument of Independence & Humanism:Tashkent

Addressing CEOs from India and Kazakhstan at a business meet, Prime Minister Modi urged Kazakhstan to participate in India's "Make in India" initiative, Smart Cities and urban infrastructure programmes. Indian oil firms could invest with new technologies in Kazakhstan's vast energy sector as also there could be cooperation in agriculture and milk production.

True, expertise in diplomacy calls for creating opportunities where none might exist. In Indian case too, the journey has been tales of lost opportunities.

Prime Minister Modi’s outreach in the neigbourhood and also Central Asian countries thus would seek to achieve a few multi-dimensional goals for India. 

Ends 

NGos under scanner: No Sympathies for Teestas

It's the alleged faulty modus operandi of the NGOs in taking overseas financial help lies the genesis of the malady. The Government claims as many as 45,000 NGOs receive foreign funding under the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act FCRA, for which they have to comply with a set of conditions, including the filing of annual returns on foreign donations. 

By September-October 2014 - hardly three months in office, working on a "normal government procedure”, the Home Ministry under Modi regime issued show-cause notices to 10,343 NGOs for not furnishing annual returns, giving them an opportunity to respond within 30 days.

Blogger Dev

This is what angered the likes of Rajnath Singh and Prime Minister Modi himself.

The officials reportedly had tough time explaining to these politicians why there was no response from as many as 8975 NGOs. There was more to it as over 500 notices returned to the North Block 'undelivered'. So the questions cropped up why such NGOs could get away with the vanishing acts and had the audacity to ignore official notices.

“We felt there was something going wrong somewhere,” says an insider aware of the NGOs funding issue adding by April 2015, Home Secretary L C Goyal directed babus to quickly draw up a list of 'questionable NGOs'.

“And as the list was drawn and some names were further scrutinized, it has been suspected that many non-government organisations registered under the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) in India were allegedly also 'indulging in money laundering'. Thus, the Enforcement agencies had to jump into actions,” a source said.

It was also revealed that hence suspecting money laundering the Home Ministry referred the cases where donation amount ranged above Rs 1 crore to the CBI and the state police. This was termed as ‘crackdown regime’ against the voluntary organizations.

The US ambassador to India, Richard Verma too was not behind.

Obama's trusted Indian-American Envoy

For sometime in November-December last year, the government changed the working style. Instead of chasing the NGOs operating in India, a scanner was applied on the donor organisations.

"It came to light that probably 3000 foreign donors give funds to Indian agencies and small-time voluntary organisations. Out of these only 16 have been found with some instances of violations of law and security issues. 

Thus, they were served notices and have been kept on Home Ministry's watch list," an insider told Power Politics. These organisations have been now asked to seek Home ministry's prior permission before drawing money from foreign agencies.

Before going further it would be pertinent to understand that the law prohibits clearly that there few categories of people and organizations who cannot draw foreign financial assistance. These include political parties and organisatons of a 'political nature'.

It's here, the government has generally found fault with the NGos. There have been expected round of war cry. And as expected, there are angry edits and reactions already. 

"The Ford case smacks of political payback. The listing stems from a complaint by the Gujurat State government about the Sabrang Trust, a private group that has received grants from Ford. The trust, its founder, Teesta Setalvad, and her husband have worked on behalf of victims of sectarian riots in Gujarat in 2002, when Mr. Modi was chief minister (of Gujarat),” ran an editorial in The New York Times virtually passing a verdict on the dispute. 

Cash Box: Hidden Money theory?

The reference was to the Ministry of Home Affairs decision placing the US-based popular Ford Foundation, which has made $500 million in grants to organizations in India since 1952, on a national security watch list. The US administration too joined the issue in a more explicit manner.

"I read with some concern the recent press reports on challenges faced by NGOs operating in India. Because a vibrant civil society is so important to both of our democratic traditions, I do worry about the potentially chilling effects of these regulatory steps focused on NGOs,” said the US ambassador to India Richard Verma.

"There is no witch-hunt against NGOs...," reacted MoS Home Kiren Rijiju even as over the past few months, the Home Ministry has cancelled the Foreign Contribution Regulatory Authority (FCRA) registration of Greenpeace, and put 16 foreign donors including Ford Foundation on its watch list. It has also cancelled the registration of 8,975 NGOs for violating norms. 

The reference was to the Ministry of Home Affairs decision placing the US-based popular Ford Foundation, which has made $500 million in grants to organizations in India since 1952, on a national security watch list. The US administration too joined the issue in a more explicit manner.

"I read with some concern the recent press reports on challenges faced by NGOs operating in India. Because a vibrant civil society is so important to both of our democratic traditions, I do worry about the potentially chilling effects of these regulatory steps focused on NGOs,” said the US ambassador to India Richard Verma.

But the Indian authorities are not giving in to Washington's wishes.

The developments have resulted in that top NGOs, Green Peace and US Ford Foundation were hit with the funding restrictions. The government had meanwhile suspended Greenpeace India's foreign funding licence after accusing the environmental pressure group of hurting the country's economic interests. As stated earlier, Greenpeace India also had warned that it may be forced to shut down its operations in the country.

 But the government argument was it was acting as per the official rules and procedures.

BJP leader and union Minister of State for Home, Kiren Rijiju said the rules

and laws are for the country and added; "our interest is to protect interest of India"

"Until and unless we do anything out of law, why should somebody question us?," he asked responding to journalists in the Parliament premises after Richard Verma’s remarks went viral on the social networking sites, websites and television channels.

According to government records, there are about 3 million NGOs registered across the country, but a bulk of them exists 'only on paper'.  "A total of 45,000 organisations are registered under the FCRA after proper physical verification of their offices and bank accounts. Fear about this crackdown as being made out to be has only been expressed by organizations that have something to hide," says BJP spokesman Nalin Kohli.

Shiv Sena MP and spokesman Sanjay Raut endorsed Kohli's views.

"What the government has done is within its right and duty bound to do so," he remarked. The Sena leader also joined issued with the US envoy Richard Verma and said, "it's not the US ambassador's job to play advocate to NGOs and private players". 

A section of citizenry is also behind the government. Sharmila Gharpure wrote on Facebook, “The question is not whether NGOs work or not. The question is why don't they file returns on time? Why can't they answer to the notice sent to them… It was found that 520 NGOs were not traceable. No one is saying that all are involved in diverting foreign funds”.

While FCRA amendment Bill by the Congress-led UPA resulted in immense regulatory changes and thus reduction in funding, the government apparatus have over the years ensured that foreign donors face major hurdles while engaging with organizations which work in governance, environment and human rights issues.

The human rights issue, as expected, generated debate in the country's security system as often allegations of human right violations have been made against the armed personnel in the north east, trouble-torn Jammu and Kashmir and also Naxal-hit states.

ends

Heart Alone - A Collection of Short Stories -- It's acceptance would sum up the importance of Heart

I am writing this blog aware that this is the 200^th blog piece. This is on my 6^th book and the first collection of fictional works – short stories  -  ‘Heart Alone – Whispers in Relations’, an e-book for Amazon Kindle.

(Here’s the link… http://www.amazon.in/HEART-ALONE-COLLECTION-SHORT-STORIES-ebook/dp/B00YMU1I6O)

The book pleasantly enough has evoked good response from friends and patrons and a few favourable reviews also. 

Manish Anand, a fellow journo friend has enthusiastically obliged:

"Heart alone is a beautiful collection of tales of Bengali lives woven from the landscape of India's pristine North-eastern states. Some of them are perched in idyllic places near Kohima, Shillong where Bengalis have traditionally co-existed with ethnic tribal. These tales tell human agonies and pains of hearts in times when human relationship is fast becoming subservient to materialist cravings of fast changing lives of the people. Women seemingly appear to be principal characters in these tales and the writer has done a world of good in portraying their worlds. Men and women relationship are a lot different than those of boys and girls and that appears to have well been captured in these stories. The writer has beautifully experimented to bring the characters to life by catching their thoughts and reflections in words. The book makes for an excellent read and holds back the reader."

There has been another review wherein Andalib Akhter says: "‘Heart Alone’ is probably worth downloading on mobile and read quickly".

But as objective reviewer, Andalib is also candid:

"The author, however, appears confused on certain issues of life, love and family matters. Is he batting for a joint family system or getting guided by his middle class inhibitions, one is not sure? Similarly, one is not sure on whether he wants the characters to be free birds and ‘rebels’ – not influenced and cowed down by the pressures of family members. Thus the stories often differ a lot from each other. So we have ‘A Rebel Son’, where the protagonist wants to be the master of his decisions; at the same time, in ‘Axiom of a girl friend’, the author runs down a woman who ill-treats her in-laws.

Well, if Dev is confused, so is also perhaps everyone else who listens to his or her ‘HEART’."

With Manish Anand during one journalistic venture

Another enthusiastic friend from northeast has also commented in a dignified manner.

“There is a time-tested maxim that pen in honest hands is always mightier than a sword. But pen-paper is a thing of past these days and in this era of internet revolution when people forego eating to their weakness for Facebook, books have been aptly replaced by e-books. Nirendra Dev’s  ‘Heart Alone – Whispers in Relations’ - a collection of Short Stories is just an addition in that list. But as the title suggests the book talks about characters who are mostly guided by the 

diktats of their hearts. It sounds righteous but also antique. 

Heart is often alone, that’s a truism; more so in the modern era.”

My personal comments on the stories are contained in the Preface of the e-book.

“My characters are generally Bengali and from northeast India. The reason is simply because as a writer I have not been able to withdraw myself completely from the trials and tribulations of that far-flung region.” Thus I say, stories have characters where in an army officer serves in remote Akuluto region of Nagaland or a south Indian babu is shown working in Mizoram.

I also believe: “In a short story everything cannot be reflection of what has 

happened or could happen. Something ought to be pure invention too. Thus in ‘Patrons of a Letter Box’, the narrator of the story is the Letter Box itself but the admission of guilt is again not by the ‘box’ per se. Stories should keep the reader’s mind locked in a debate,” he says.

Lalitgate: A silent Namo, misplaced roadmap of Congress

If you try to pass judgement with malice and hostility, you deceive not only your opponent but yourself.  - The Last Question by Saratchandra Chattopadhyay

Virtually this approach and spirit is guiding the Congress response to the Lalitgate controversy. As a result Congress is convincingly appearing leaderless and rudderless. The manner the likes of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Digvijay Singh are quoting L K Advani on daily basis suggest a very interesting phase -- the total bankruptcy in Congress arsenal wherein they could have had the Modi regime on the mat.

"Advaniji doesn’t give hints, he states everything with clarity. But ‘jo na samjhe  woh nadaan," said Azad almost elevating BJP patriarch as an elderly statesman. These appear like trying to use Advani's aging shoulders to shoot at the Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Both Vasundhara Raje and Sushma Swaraj are important BJP players - besides being women-in-power faces; but the Congress attack is only a bit of cacophony. 

Most of the media briefings by the likes of Jairam Ramesh, supposedly the architect of a pathetic Land Bill in 2013 and who also damaged party's prospects in Andhra-Telangana region, is like barking up the wrong tree.

In the process, Congress is only betraying its helplessness and absence of home work in taking on the Narendra Modi-led dispensation. This does not augur well for democracy as a weak and allegedly a ‘bogus’ show by opposition only would make the incumbent government more arrogant and perhaps also dictatorial.

“By creating a defence entirely based on FEMA, Modi-supporters and BJP-proxies have been able to create a smokescreen that the Congress hasn’t been able to penetrate. This is their biggest failing. Could it be deliberate? Possibly yes, because the Congress camp is full of sharp lawyers, including former finance minister P Chidambaram….,” says Firstpost. (Link: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/all-noise-no-point-congress-attack-on-bjp-over-lalit-modi-scandal-is-aimless-heres-why-2317280.html)

The worst sin committed by Congress in the entire drama is the absence of home work – and thus confusing Light Blue Corner notice with Blue Corner or even Red Corner.

By raking up Dholpur palace controversy, Congress has again only shown its bankruptcy and sheer desperation even as despite the ‘mandate’ on Lalitgate at TV studios, the BJP is not buying the resignation line especially for Vasundhara.

True, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose to remain silent on Mann-ki-Baat radio programme on the major row but in the eagerness to exploit that Congress has again given away certain loopholes in its campaign to be exploited by BJP.

A strategic silence or Blunder

The repeated use of the word ‘Bhagoda (fugitive)’ by none other than an educated and well informed Jairam Ramesh for Lalit Modi is again a baffling episode.

The saffron party has thus said even if Raje had backed the immigration appeal of Lalit Modi, former IPL chairman, she had "not testified in court on his behalf" and hence the Opposition criticism of her supporting a man wanted for financial crimes in India was "misplaced".

"Can anyone cite before us an instant wherein Vasundhara appeared before the court of law as is being made out by our political opponents," BJP spokesman Sambit Patra said.

Another BJP spokesman Shrikant Sharma said the Congress is not doing its homework properly. So the question is, has the Congress blown the issue over.

Moreover, look at the Congress misplaced priority. Just to make a political point, Ghulam Nabi Azad flayed Prime Minister for not mentioning Ramzan, a festival of Muslims, and instead had raised Raksha Bandhan, a Hindu fest, with insurance schemes for women.

This gave BJP an opportunity and BJP women workers thus staged a protest against Ghulam Nabi Azad, Leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha, for his remarks that while PM Narendra Modi had mentioned about Raksha Bandhan during his radio address yesterday, he did not refer to Ramzan, a major festival of Muslims.

The agitating BJP workers also had demanded an apology from Azad. 

The China hand in North East Insurgency

China’s interest about India in general and in the north east India is nothing new. Immediately after independence of both the countries by 1954-55, Chinese authorities raked up the ‘old map’ controversy and claimed significant parts of north east India. In subsequent years, betraying an alleged ‘expansionist designs’, by 1960, they came up with an idea of formation of a ‘Himalayan Federation’ comprising Nepal, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh (erstwhile NEFA).

1962 is too well known. Thus even in circa 2015 when there is buzz about support from China to various insurgent agencies in the north east India, there is little to dispute on the same.

The Naga rebels led by Thuingaleng Muivah and Isak Chishi Swu had visited China in early 1960s and armed guerrillas got training too.

Muivah and Swu: Original China nexus

Strategically the ‘unity’ of the Eastern Naga Revolutionary Council, the Burmese Naga organisation led by Shangu Shangwan Khaplang and the NNC was emphasized. Later on the Chinese support extended to help smooth coordination between Nagas, Meiteis (Manipuris), Mizos, Chins and Kachins and later on Assamese (ULFA) to give a lasting impact on militancy history.

However, creditably for both the countries, India and China have not exactly been at daggers drawn after 1962, but neither have they been the best of friends. The history has not been wished away but both the countries have struggled to improve ties especially on economic and trade. 

The present Narendra Modi regime has tried to befriend China and the reciprocation from Beijing has not been discouraging. But the ‘fundamental contradictions’ do define Sino-Indian relations. India and China are competitors for the same turf. Both are growing economic powers, with India lately trying to unleash its potentials. Both are important Asian players, both key BRICS members and both want to be recognized as “the most important power” in the region vis-à-vis the declining influence of the western powers. 

Having said these, the first support to north east militancy from China came for Naga rebel leader Thuingaleng Muivah when in 1967 the crafty NNC leader (who later floated potent National Socialist Council of Nagaland- NSCN along with S S Khaplang, a Myanmarese Naga and Isak Chishi Swu) went to Yunan province of China along with 300 odd Naga youth for the armed training. Initially, they were termed as Naga National Volunteers and were reportedly accommodated in military camps in Eu-Kung near Chengtung. Even Isak Chishi Swu, chairman of NSCN and the then Foreign Secretary under A Z Phizo in 1960s had visited China.

“I have great respect for Chinese leaders and the Chinese people. I see in them greatness and so I have admiration for them. They tried to understand our point of view,” Muivah had said in a television interview many years later in 2004.  

In fact, this Chinese support, say Indian security specialists “redefined” the course and history of the Naga movement for all time to come. 

The Nagas were followed by Mizos, Meiteis and also Assamese.

The 2015 buzz about ‘support’ to other insurgent groups like PLA of Manipur is only a continued episode of that phenomenon.

Honestly speaking military and diplomatic officials in both countries seem to appreciate the gravity of the problem between two countries. 

“…the difference in view on this (issues like Sikkim as integral part of India) lies in historical background. But for mutual interest and friendship we have adopted some flexibility and made adjustments in our policy,” remarked the then Chinese ambassador to India Zhou Gang on March 16, 2000. Similar ‘flexibility’ if not more is displayed by Indian authorities too. The ruling BJP leaders of PM Modi says, the big and bold step by Indian government to grant e-Visas to Chinese tourists was a crucial step that have stunned Chinese authorities but ‘endeared Modi’ to the Chinese people.

Many if and buts associated with such episodes can be appreciated only in due course as many answers lie only in the womb of time.

Coming back to China’s interest in the north east region and its sponsorship to the militancy it would not be wrong to state that insurgent groups from the northeast have always looked towards China for support. Several groups even formally incorporated elements of Chinese ideology as part of their manifesto. The NSCN, for instance, continues to emphasise on the term “socialist” while advocating the slogan of “Nagaland for Christ”. 

“There is no denying the fact that the insurgency in north east India would have assumed an ominous contour as it has without foreign support, both covert and overt especially from powerful neighbours like China,” says a former army corps commander and GOC Nagaland.

Blogger's dad N C Deb served in erstwhile NEFA

But China has its issues too. Beijing has more than once gone on record about its stand on Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Notwithstanding certain hype created over improvement in relations in last decade or so, there is no gainsay to point out that the hidden controversies – like Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim – cannot really guarantee a total stable relation. Beijing continues its stand in not accepting Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh – the two geo-politically significant states – as integral parts of India even as it recognized the Nathula Pas border trade along Sikkim.

Mission Myanmar : Tough Rules of a Tough Game

The Indo-Myanmar relations more so in the context of strategic importance and counter insurgency operations is the flavour of the new season. A sizeable portion in western Myanmar is dominated by the ethnic Nagas, who share biological fraternity with the Nagas in India. Thus it is often argued by political parties in Indian side of the border and also security experts in the South Block that the condition of Nagas in Myanmar can have some impact vis-à-vis the insurgency movement of the Nagas this side.
That means this could easily impact states like Nagaland, Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

Sentinels Guarding North East Hills

The issue has come to the fore with the 4 June, 2015 ambush by Naga rebels from across the border against Dogra Regiment killing 18 Indian soldiers and India and Myanmar supposedly acting tough. India shares a long land frontier with Myanmar that runs longer than 1600 km. The government of India for decades took scant note of the fact that Myanmar’s so called “isolationist policy” – under the military regime – has only befriended it more to China. 

Now in last few years if the political turmoil and sustained international pressure one way or the other changed the lives of common Myanmarese, it has also changed things for Nagas in Myanmar who have often suffered the loss of home, lives and culture.
Do they often feel unwanted in their homeland thus also deserve finer scrutiny.

The Nagaland government has submitted a paper to the Government of India on these lines.

But having said these it needs to be appreciated that certain aspects of supposedly internal matters of Myanmar can easily bamboozle Indian government, which despite subjected to all kinds of criticism has been practicing functional democracy for over six decades.  

An 'unstable' Myanmar is always a matter of concern vis-a-vis northeast insurgency-hit states. A resemblance of democracy has come in Myanmar and in circa 2015 all eyes – as expected - would be on the general elections likely to be held by October-November. But elections can be often destabilizing factor too.

Blogger

The dastardly killing of 18 Dogra Regiment soldiers left Indian army no choice but to act fast. Thus a covert army operation along the Myanmar border and also perhaps into the interiors of Myanmar was carried out ostensibly with the green signal from the highest level in the country. 

The Junior Information Minister, R Rathore was not alone. Other Indian ministers and BJP leaders portrayed the military action—which was meant to be covert—as a major success and as a declaration that Prime Minister Modi was ready to carry out surgical strikes against militants beyond India’s borders. The real issue is India’s western neighbour-  Pakistan.

But in the melee of this fierce debate, one factor that needs to be understood is why insurgency flourishes in states like Nagaland and Manipur and how do Indian authorities – with or without army -- tackle the menace. And also what role Myanmar has ?

The government of India for decades took scant note of the fact that Myanmar’s so called “isolationist policy” towards it – under the military regime – has only befriended it more to China. 
In last few years if the political turmoil and sustained international pressure one way or the other changed the lives of common Myanmarese, it has also changed things for Nagas in Myanmar who have often suffered the loss of home, lives and culture.

Modi with Aung San Suu Kyi

Now importantly, among the armed-chair glib talkers in Delhi TV studios, perhaps very few know about the ethnic ties of the Nagas from both sides of the international border. The ensuing elections have made the military commanders in Myanmar redraw their chessboard. Till now, the generals continue to have the “final say” in the appointment of the Defence minister, Home minister and the minister of Border Affairs in Myanmar. So, one apprehension has been what would happen if October election will take away certain vital powers from the military commanders? 

The suspicion is military rulers will make use of the existing law and can ensure handover of power "by the President" to the military. Firstly, such a situation is not entirely ruled out. Secondly, in such an event, the Naga Self-Administered Zone in western Myanmar as stipulated by the 2008 constitutional norms would end up. 

The Modi government seems to understand the key issues involved and thus Modi's trusted man, NSA Ajit Doval was deputed for a two day visit to Myanmar for talks with Myanmar rulers. The military junta rulers in Myanmar have been suave operatives and quite experts in diplomacy too.

Modi and his Chanakya, Doval