Narendra Modi has nearly staged a near coup as the Ufa joint statement by India and Pakistan read out by two Foreign Secretaries at a joint briefing did not have the undeviating
‘K’ word.
How Sharif agreed to a draft without mention of
Kashmir is a double-edged sword. It can mean India has won a point that
Indo-Pak talks can pursue even without discussions on Kashmir or that Pakistani
side is not taking the Ufa exercise seriously. For them perhaps a commitment
from Modi, a hawkish Hindutva school leader in his own right, that talks will
be revived is itself a take away.
Opposition parties in Pakistan were not starry-eyed
about the Namo-Nawaz meet.
Senator Rehman Malik, a former Interior Minister, dispatched a press release that detailed his reading of the icebreaker. “The recent meeting [of] Modi with Sharif clearly demonstrates
how disrespectful Mr Modi was towards Sharif,” Malik was quoted by a spokesman
as saying.
Nawaz with his army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif |
He compared Indian Prime Minister Modi to “the Tsar of
Russia” as he described how the two state leaders interacted. Ms Shireen Mazari
of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) expressed dismay over the manner she felt
Sharif “appeased India” in the meeting. Mazari felt that Sharif’s invitation to the Indian head of state
was unnecessary and “beyond the requirements of diplomatic protocol”, as the
same would have gone out as a matter of routine.
“Modi raised Mumbai and
Sharif agreed to ‘fast track’ the investigations. Not a word on Samjhota
Express was uttered by PM Sharif,” she fumed. Sharif could face further protest when he returns
home and there would lie the true test of the leadership mantle in Pakistan
Prime Minister, otherwise a tough nut in politics. And this would also decide
whether Ufa was a winner for peace and stability in the region or yet another
case of mountain out of a mole hill.
A decisive leader particularly in Indian context
means different things to different people. That is one of the many questions many
people throw up when we discuss a leader like Narendra Modi, who has diehard admirers
and hardcore critics.
The latest move by PM Modi vis-à-vis Pakistan has thus
sparked off a turbulent debate, has he done the right thing in trying to revive
talks with Pakistan and will Pakistan again go back on its words.
Modi’s detractors in India including a large section
of media call him Hitler – someone who has choked dissent even from his party
seniors; but I among a minority – especially among the ‘liberal’ journos – that
only a decisive and determined person can lead India to a new path. Thus Modi’s
roadmap is understood from that perspective.
But what’s this latest round of Indo-Pak or to be
specific Namo-Nawaz talks at Ufa in Russia? Predictably BJP is jubilant and
party’s neo-Muslim face and an intellectual in his own right, M J Akbar, was
fielded within minutes to snatch the credit for the ice-breaker meeting for
Modi as well as the BJP itself.
“The meeting was a
breakthrough, the reason for this is very clear as for the first time Pakistan
has accepted our definition of terrorism," he said.
But Congress is skeptical and tried to dismiss the efforts as being “nothing unique”. A more sensible voice about diplomacy in Congress, Shashi Tharoor has put it rather practically saying, “the taste of the pudding is in its eating”.
Vajpayee, Musharraf |
In other words, a lot depends on the delivery level
and that too from Pakistan, where Nawaz Sharif could be the Prime Minister but
the diplomatic engine room vis-à-vis India is most of the time is in the
military camp.
So, what next? Omar Abdullah says while he is “not
pessimistic”; he does not want to be “over optimistic either”.
Frankly, years back Atal Behari Vajpayee had tried
to put Indo-Pak dialogue at the core of his foreign policy. His Lahore Bus
journey and classic oneliner in a some-what enemy country: “apki chini khae…kaafi
mithi thi” was a heart-winner.
India had imported sugar from Pakistan that year.
But things got derailed and things were again sabotaged at Agra chiefly owing
to hawkish stance taken by Gen Pervez Musharraf as also Vajpayee’s longtime
friend L K Advani and his blue-eyed girl Sushma Swaraj (the then I&B
Minister).
when Pakistan was founded ! |
A few Modi detractors are already singing “u-turn”
theme song and refusing to give Modi the benefit of time – till Pakistan PM
Nawaz Sharif can actually deliver.
“Is making a U-turn necessarily a bad
thing in politics and governance?,” asks columnist Shekhar Gupta while he
answers himself; “The truth is, four big turnarounds Modi as Prime Minister has made on his
party's pre-election position are pragmatic and in our larger interest”.
The references are to nuclear deal with the US, LBA
with Bangladesh, India’s stand vis-à-vis China and now the talks with Pakistan,
which was abandoned eight months back.
To take the discussion forward, we need to examine
will Nawaz Sharif deliver or more specifically will he have the ‘power’ to
deliver? In Pakistan the control of army is now in the hands of army chief General Raheel Sharif,
incidentally a former protégé of Gen Pervez Musharraf.
Moreover, Gen
Raheel Sharif at his tender age of 15 had lost his elder brother in Bangladesh
war in 1971. So there’s a scar that remains as a ‘bitter pain’ in Gen Sharif’s
psyche as well as in the psyche of all Pakistanis. The Bangldesh (or East
Pakistan) fester was only renewed for Pakistan when Narendra Modi made a very
candid but bitter speech in Dhaka.
No Pakistani
General should be considered a moderate. To cap it, on June 3, 2015, Gen Sharif
at the
National Defence University in Islamabad had said, "Kashmir is an
unfinished agenda of partition. Kashmir and Pakistan are inseparable."
So is there a meeting point really?
In the ultimate analysis, Indo-Pak
tie is a no-win diplomatic tussle. However, the Indian media generally go overboard
when there is any India-Pakistan meeting. But it could be going back to the basic
if there is any major terrorist attack. All hopes will be dashed and it will
fall like a house of cards.
Just as the saying goes: Lamhe ne khata ki hae; sadiyon ne saja pae hae !!
ends
It is an aware journalist's keen analysis. All if and buts are rightly included without being overtly pessimistic. The fact is that the chances of fruitlessness are still stronger than those of reward in our bilateral dialogues. Nirendra Dev and you and I can only hope that dialogues help reduce belligerency.
ReplyDeleteNirendra baboo, your take of the both PM's meeting is just an extension of the Pakistan's oppositional point of view. Net effect of the meeting from an objective position is the much needed peace in the region depends on the behaviour of the leadership across the border towards each other. The Ufa meeting served the purpose in the best of the diplomatic manners. There is no head or tail in diplomatic nearaways. Long live peace between India and Pakistan.
ReplyDeleteEven a child new to international affairs would be able to say that expecting uni-directional response while dealing with Pakistan will never work, given the complexities. Therefore, it is expected that Indo-Pak relations can only be blow-hot-blow-cold. Only time will tell, whether Ufa will become a reality. The only thing India can do is to ensure that "Lahore bus followed by Kargil" is not repeated. As long as this can be ensured, people won't mind engagement with Pakistan.
ReplyDeleteIt is good that India and Pakistanare having dialogue to resolve the issues between them but these talks to be successful .Both countries are required to have faith in eachother that the other side is serious on this.
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