Politics is indeed a platform of all kinds of shocks and strange twists in the tale.
In 2021 polls in Assam, a new floated AJP - Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Rajir Dol reportedly harmed Congress prospects in 10-12 assembly seats. But now in the run up to the 2026 polls - the table seemed to have been turned.
Analysts in Upper Assam including Jorhat and Dibrugarh feel in the next year's polls - the AJP will harm the BJP prospects more.
This has made the Congress camp more than delighted and equally the saffron party is little irked and is in search for ways to 'brave' through the challenges. However, peculiarity remains on ground at the same time.
The Tea-garden workers had overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in 2021 polls. Among the five guarantees the Congress had promised in 2021 was Rs 365 daily wage if voted to power; yet the tea-garden community overwhelmingly sided with the saffron alliance. In 2026 too; the tea garden workers are expected to back the BJP.
However, some locals say the problem lies in BJP's electoral management.
"Projecting Himanta Biswa Sarma may not help in Upper Assam at all. This Ahom-community dominated region has always preferred a Ahom ruler in Dispur. We are are very proud of our tradition and culture", said trader Akhil Kumar in Tinsukia.
Gaurav Gogoi's win in 2024 from Jorhat changed the entire political dynamics
Prior ro 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Himanta Biswa Sarma played a game. The Kaliabor constituency, which Gaurav Gogoi represented earlier, was rechristened as Kaziranga in delimitation. The BJP calculation was Gaurav will be compelled to move to Muslim-dominated Nagaon.
This would have been an easier battle for Gaurav Gogoi, son of Late CM Tarun Gogoi.
But Gaurav Gogoi took a calculated risk and surprised his political foe Himanta.
He could wrest the prestigious Jorhat seat from the ruling BJP by defeating Topon Kumar Gogoi with a margin of 1,44,393 votes. Both Himanta and Topon Kumar Gogoi were 'confident' of winning the election for the second consecutive term. The political dynamics were altered and hence the Congress is a party that is seen as someone which can get back its prominence in Assam.
The Congress was ousted in 2016 by the BJP after tribal leader Sarbananda Sonowal was made the face of the party.
Sonowal's being 'tribal' somewhat countered the politics of Ahom-pride in 2021 and also 2016 polls. But now Himanta is the face of the Lotus party and it may be
genuinely difficult to find Himanta admirers in upper Assam.
"We may vote for BJP and it will be done in the name of Narendra Modi and the hope that the high command will replace Himanta with Sonowal bhai. We want him back as Assam Chief Minister.... Let Amit Shah make Himanta home minister in Delhi or Governor of Gujarat," says 40-year-old Shikha Deka in Dinjoy gaon or Dinjan - a tea growing area.
The Congress supporters seem to endorse her views.
One local booth level worker said - "If you have followed Assam politics in 2024 .... Gaurav Da said he is like the Abhimanyu, who entered the Chakravyuha in Jorhat politics. But he emerged winner and that's how Ahom rulers performed earlier too ... always brave and keen to take risks".
"We will help him this time too".
The Dibrugarh-Tinsukia belt has substantial Marwari, Benagli and Bihari population too.
These communities are expected to vote for the BJP.
However, Ravi Vaidya (one from underprivileged caste) and a Bengali taxi driver said -- "We like BJP and Modi ji. But in our region, nothing came under Himanta Biswa Sarma. We will vote for BJP only if Mr Sonowal is projected as the chief minister".
He said even Bengali voters may back AJP.
Lurinjyoti Gogoi, an Ahom and a former general secretary of AASU, is leading the party and is expected to do well.
Analyst Pijush Chakraborty says: "When you are asking whether AJP will do well or not .... I will answer your question differently. I will say the AJP may harm BJP prospects.... and in the process, the Congress and Gaurav Gogoi may have the last laugh".
On ground level around Dinjan, Tinsukia and Sadiya region; people say -- voters are yet to make up their mind.
But according to some -- "tricky region" will be Shivsagar area ... where voters have in the past voted against the ruling party in the state.
So the Congress may do well in Shivsagar areas with or without Gogoi/Ahom factor.
The BJP is following usual electoral strategy.
This may not work in the long run.
The Lotus party is Late Tarun Gogoi and Congress for going soft on Bangladeshi influx and also being anti-Hindu.
But on ground - the Hindutva is hardly an issue.
Of course, the illegal Bangladeshi infiltration is an issue of concern for voters; but Tarun Gogoi and his son Gaurav's image remained largely unaffected.
Tail Piece : What Diphu has, Nagaland capital Kohima or Dimapur does not have !
(Himanta said so in June 2022)
This serves as another pointer to NPF in Nagaland and why they are so eager to hand over the affairs of NPF to Neiphiu Rio -- Nagaland's powerful CM since 2003 (with a minor break of few months)
Satire or sarcastic remarks are one way of doing so. Others do it rather
innocuously -- but the message gets deeper.
Himanta Biswa Sarma, Assam Chief Minister, is a political creature of experience.
His remarks on Rahul Gandhi and 'pet dogs' made waves in 2016.
Lately he took a dig at the pace of developments in Nagaland. Did he really had to ?
Addressing an election rally at Hangjanglangso Sports Stadium at Bokajan - not far away
from Dimapur - Sarma said on June 5, "What Diphu has, you do not have it in Dimapur or Kohima".
Well the Assamese version -- and so the real version the way Himanta put it - makes things
clearer.
"Bokajanor pora Dimapur asorot....Dimapurot aji Medical College nai, Kohimat o nai....amar Diphut asey".
The video has gone viral.
However, he hastened to add -- "Maybe Dimapur and Kohima will soon have those".
Were this comparison so innocuous....and just way of putting things in right perspective?
Diphu is one of the underdeveloped areas of Assam and mind you - Dimapur and Kohima
are two showcases of Nagaland !
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