Essentially problematic Double Engines 'model'
Five BJP/NDA chief ministers in Northeast are from Congress bloc
New Delhi
Mere cosmetic changes may not serve the real purpose of good governance. The 'Manipur crisis' is proof that the taste of the pudding is in its eating. Even as often the seven or eight states including Sikkim are clubbed as part of the broader canvas of the northeast region, the issues and challenges in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tripura and Sikkim could be clubbed in a different category.
This essentially leads one to study, analyse and talk more on the complexities involved in Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram.
These states have porous international borders in a much hostile jungle environment and tough terrains. The inflow of arms and trans-border movement of insurgent outfits is huge and these elements also rely heavily on external countries for training and other support. The perceived 'no man's land' in Myanmar offers an entirely new dynamic.
The pending Naga peace talks, Manipur's nearly 50-day old ethnic conflicts and Mizoram slowly becoming a hub of 'Greater Mizoram' demand have set the ball rolling towards an hitherto unknown track. None can say what is at the end of the tunnel. None can also presume what is the Government of India planning to do with the varied issues in these three states.
To start with, any Home Minister or Home Secretary can go clueless. Look at the problems - Nagas want Nagalim, Eastern Nagaland is not happy with the present day state of Nagaland and wants to move away, Kukis and other smaller tribes belonging to Zo-Chin blocks want 'separate administration' but the 'Nagas of Manipur' say they are happy to go along with the Meiteis. One can go on.
Mizoran has 'nationals' from Myanmar, Bangladesh and now internally displaced people from Manipur. The state may have hospitable Mizos to welcome guests but there will be resource crunch in times to come. Mizos also have their own problems with Reangs or Brus.
At the same time it's a new world and 'New India'. These are the realities. Guerrilla warfare has a romanticism perhaps unheard of in any other part of the subcontinent. When a Tamil or a Bengali group is unhappy, one can plan for agitation, Bandhs and stone pelting or putting trains on fire. But in these three states - the adorable word is 'insurgency' or the 'freedom movement'.
When all communities think they have special histories and are 'uniquely distinct' etc -- how can one expect that they will have no tussle or turf war. Take the example of Manipur and one can refresh how - Nagas and Kukis fought in the mid-nineties. Then in 2001, Nagas and Meiteis clashed. Today, Kukis have clashed with Meiteis and Nagas (of Manipur) say though Christians and Tribals, they would better deal with Meiteis -- the plain people and mostly Hindus.
In 1997-98, even Kukis and Paites had clashed in the sensitive Churachandpur district after the Thadou-speaking Kukis had been 'displaced' from their homes.
Interacting with security experts recently brought up certain facets. "The old practice and logic of having security and community rights based on capability to deter with arms and militarily is fast eroding. We cannot go back to the world of the 1960s and 1970s," says one expert.
In other words, he has only underlined that security/insecurity calculations have become 'uncertain' and largely 'contextual'. Agreements would have to worked out not merely on papers but the "moral authority" behind the pacts will increase in the coming days.
But the serving army officials in the region would always say that they cannot function without adequate functional autonomy -- that is the tool called AFSPA. Their main argument is 'every capability' to deal with the challenges revolve around two functions - warfighting and deterrence.
One analyst who served in Manipur and Nagaland and now posted out in another command says, "There is a peculiarity in Friendship between local population and the forces. You are good as long as you keep doing something or giving away something. One ambush and you launch counter insurgency operations, you become an enemy force".
Another analyst almost endorses such views and says, "The security issues in Manipur and Nagaland still follow the old Darwinist struggle whereas things have come more cooperative endeavour elsewhere even between warring nations. The pattern of Russia-Ukraine conflict is a semi-permanent feature in this region".
When I pursued these matters further with some serving and retired civil officials (our good old Babudom), the response was critical. Over the decades, they said, the connectivity and intermingling amongst the diverse communities from Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland with 'mainland India' have not been effective to encourage national and emotional integration.
One way to achieve this is by economic development through education and via the tools of government, semi-government and private entrepreneurship.
Subsequently, we are drawn towards another Utopian subject, and that is the spinal cord of Corruption, which is so rampant in every social stream. This menace must be rooted out. On the other hand, one can point out that the general local refrain is that corruption was used with necessary Ws to weaken the intensity of insurgency movements in this region.
In this context, the consensus admission is that the nexus among the business people, contractors and operatives in Delhi and politicians and insurgents must be eradicated. But this is just wishful thinking. The 'good governance' needs to be instituted at all levels.
If the Congress party failed in the past and the regional and smaller parties simply followed the Congress legacy, the BJP's over emphasis on 'winning elections' in these states to ensure a Congress-mukt Bharat has also proved disastrous.
Therefore, the only change in the northeast is the party flag(s). Either BJP Chief Ministers or those of regional parties supported by BJP; the controversial and suspicious elements not only have been allowed to rule; they are dominating the scenario.
Let us take a roll call. Chief Ministers such as Himanta Biswa Sarma (Assam), Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland), N Biren Singh (Manipur), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh) and even Manik Saha (Tripura) are all from the Congress school of pragmatic politics - Mr Narendra Modi wants to 'get rid off'.
There is something essentially problematic with the 'model' of Double Engines.
Even incumbent Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma is son of former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma, an original Congress veteran. The BJP has not brought any genuine 'alternative' leadership.
Sarbananda Sonowal represented a tribal support base and background of AASU politics. But he has been replaced as Chief Minister by an ex-Congressman.
Change the school head masters first, Mr Prime Minister. Losing state governments in the region will be a smaller price to achieve something big in the long run both for the Lotus party and the ill-fated people of the northeast.
ends
BJP needs 'genuine alternative leadership'..... The 'Manipur crisis' is proof cosmetic changes may not serve the real purpose
New Delhi
The 'Manipur crisis' is proof that the taste of the pudding is in its eating. Mere cosmetic changes may not serve the real purpose of giving the governance with a difference.
The BJP and its allies are in power across the region ousting the Congress from the wilds of northeast. But there is no fundamental change, and that's crucial.
Let us take a roll call. Chief Ministers such as Himanta Biswa Sarma (Assam), Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland), N Biren Singh (Manipur), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh) and even Manik Saha (Tripura) are all from the Congress school of pragmatic politics - Mr Narendra Modi wants to 'get rid off'.
Even Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma is son of former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma, an original Congress veteran.
There is something essentially problematic with the 'model' of Double Engines if the pilots are from the Congress stock. Home Minister Amit Shah mocked at Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann -- calling him a 'pilot' of Arvind Kejriwal.
Time to 'change' the old school headmasters in the northeast, Mr Home Minister. Even as often the seven or eight states including Sikkim are clubbed as part of the broader canvas of the northeast region, the issues and challenges in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tripura and Sikkim could be clubbed in a different category.
This essentially leads one to study, analyse and talk more on the complexities involved in Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. These states have porous international borders in a much hostile jungle environment and tough terrains.
The inflow of arms and trans-border movement of insurgent outfits is huge and these elements also rely heavily on external countries for training and other support. The perceived 'no man's land' in Myanmar offers an entirely new dynamic.
The pending Naga peace talks, Manipur's nearly 50-day old ethnic conflicts and Mizoram slowly becoming a hub of 'Greater Mizoram' demand have set the ball rolling towards an hitherto unknown track. None can say what is at the end of the tunnel. None can also presume what is the Government of India planning to do with the varied issues in these three states.
To start with, any Home Minister or Home Secretary can go clueless. Look at the problems - Nagas want Nagalim, Eastern Nagaland is not happy with present day state of Nagaland and wants to move away, the Kukis and other smaller tribes
belonging to Zo-Chin blocks want 'separate administration' but the 'Nagas of Manipur' say they are happy to go along with the Meiteis. One can go on.
Mizoran has 'nationals' from Myanmar, Bangladesh and now internally displaced people from Manipur. The state may have hospitable Mizos to welcome guests but there will be resource crunch in times to come.
Mizos also have their own problems with Reangs or Brus. At the same time it's a new world and 'New India'. These are the realities. Guerrilla warfare has a romanticism perhaps unheard of in any other part of the subcontinent. When a Tamil or a Bengali group is unhappy, one can plan for agitation, Bandhs and stone pelting or putting trains on fire. But in these three states - the adorableword is 'insurgency' or the 'freedom movement'.
When all communities think they have special histories and are 'uniquely distinct' etc -- how can one expect
that they will have no tussle or turf war. Take the example of Manipur and one can refresh how - Nagas and Kukis
fought in the mid-nineties. Then in 2001, Nagas and Meiteis clashed. Today, Kukis have clashed with Meiteis
and Nagas (of Manipur) say though Christians and Tribals, they would better deal with Meiteis -- the plain people
and mostly Hindus.
In 1997-98, even Kukis and Paites had clashed in sensitive Churachandpur district of Manipur
after the Thadou-speaking Kukis had been 'displaced' from their homes.
Interacting with security experts recently threw up a one-liner. "The old practice and logic of having
security and community rights based on capability to deter with arms and militarily is fast eroding. We cannot
go back to the world of the 1960s and 1970s," says one expert.
In other words, he has only underlined that security/insecurity calculations have become 'uncertain' and
largely 'contextual'. Agreements would have to be worked out not merely on papers but the "moral authority"
behind the pacts will increase in the coming days.
But the serving army officials in the region would always say that they cannot function without adequate functional autonomy -- that is the tool called AFSPA. Their main argument is 'every capability' to deal with the challenges revolve around two functions - warfighting and deterrence. One Assam Rifles officer who served in Manipur and Nagaland and now posted in another command says,
"There is a peculiarity of friendship between local population and the forces. You are good as long as you keep doing something or giving away something. One ambush and you launch counter insurgency operations, you become an enemy force".
Another analyst almost endorses the hard-liner view and says, "The security issues in Manipur and Nagaland
still follow the old Darwinist struggle whereas things have become more cooperative endeavour elsewhere
even between warring nations. The pattern of Russia-Ukraine conflict is a semi-permanent feature in this region".
When I pursued these matters further with some serving and retired civil officials (our good old Babudom),
the response was critical but crucial. Over the decades, the connectivity and intermingling amongst the diverse
communities from Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland with 'mainland India' have not been effective to encourage
national and emotional integration.
One way to achieve this is by economic development through education and via the tools of government,
semi-government and private entrepreneurship.
Subsequently, we are drawn towards another Utopian subject, and that is the spinal cord of Corruption, which is so rampant in every social stream. It must be uprooted.
On the other hand,one can point out that the general local refrain is that corruption was used with necessary Ws to weaken the intensity of insurgency movements in this region in the 1950s and 1960s.
In this context, the consensus admission is that the nexus among the business people, contractors and operatives in Delhi and politicians and insurgents must be eradicated. But this is just a wishful thinking. The 'good governance' needs to be instituted at all levels. If the Congress party failed in the past and the regional and smaller parties simply followed the Congress legacy, the BJP's over emphasis on winning elections in these states to ensure a 'Congress-mukt Bharat' has also proved disastrous.
At least Manipur is a proof.
Therefore, the only change in the northeast is the party flag(s). Either BJP Chief Ministers or those of regional parties supported by BJP; the suspicious and controversial elements not only have been allowed to rule; they are dominating the scenario.
Narendra Modi wants to 'get rid off' Congress flag, culture and the menace of ill-governance. But is he doing the right thing by encouraging most ex-Congress leaders join the BJP and decide the fate of the Lotus party?
We say, there is something essentially problematic with this 'model' of Double Engines. The pilots/engine captains come with the old shoes -- which are dirty and stinking.
There is need for overhauling the system. People believe northeast wants a decisive Prime Minister. No less than veteran Naga leader S C Jamir said so.
"Politically people in north east have always admired a decisive Prime Minister and I am sure they will continue to do so," said Jamir in the context of Manipur woes. Jamir was Governor in Gujarat for five months and he saw Modi function from a close range. "We became friends...," Jamir said in November 2021.
For Mr Modi therefore, losing state governments in the region will be a smaller price to achieve something big in the long run both for the Lotus party and the ill-fated people of the north east.
ends
(Nirendra Dev is a New Delhi-based journalist. He is also author of the books 'The Talking Guns: North East India',
and 'Modi to Moditva: An Uncensored Truth'. Views expressed are personal)
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