New Delhi
The term ‘untouchable’ has a different connotation in each culture. In Indian politics for long the term was applied for the BJP. It started with the Leftists in the 1990s because that gave the communists the Brahminical authority --- the power behind the throne but no accountability.
Thus H D Deve Gowda was wrong and so was I K Gujral -- but neither the CPI-M was wrong nor even Late Indrajit Gupta, India's only communist Home Minister. This was the era when N Chandrababu Naidu played a key role. He cemented the unity among Left-liberal-socialist and regional forces. He was the convenor of the United Front.
The TDP supremo later did some business with the BJP of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and maximum 'accommodation' was he allowed GMC Balayogi to be Speaker Lok Sabha. The TDP did not join the Vajpayee government both 1998 and also later in 1999 after NDA won the post-Kargil polls rather comfortably. Then he dissociated with BJP and NDA after the 2004 electoral debacle. While he lost power in Andhra Pradesh,in the centre Vajpayee government too was voted out.
But he again came back to the NDA fold in 2013-14. Naidu allowed his two colleagues to become Ministers and things went on smoothly for a while.
But in 2018, the TDP again quit the ministry and the coalition. During no trust motion against his government moved by TDP and Congress, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned Naidu saying he was doing a mistake. "You have fallen into a trap created by Jaganmohan of YSR Congress party". The TDP protest was against centre's refusal to give Special Category status to Andhra Pradesh. Essentially the story goes that PM Modi had even declined to meet Chandrababu Naidu for weeks and 'local pressure' too was mounting on him.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls - both parliamentary and state assembly polls, the TDP was washed out and YSRCP stormed into power.
Stage is now set for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls - a crucial battle for PM Modi; and also the state assembly polls for TDP. For Naidu - the next 12 months and these two rounds of elections will decide his political fate, the relevance of TDP and perhaps also the future of his son Nara Lokesh. In Delhi, Amit Shah, J P Nadda and BJP general secretary (Organisation) B L Santhosh met on June 5 and discussed contemporary politics including the TDP matters and politics concerning southern states.
On this backdrop came the crucial meeting between Naidu and BJP stalwarts Amit Shah and J P Nadda. The refrain from both sides is "the meeting went on well and things look positive". Suddenly politics is yet again pregnant about all possibilities. Both TDP and BJP on the face value stand to gain from the next round of possible adjustment and permutations and combinations.
According to a TDP insider, "our biggest strength for any alliance with the BJP is our strong anti- Congress DNA". The BJP leaders when asked agree in principle about the same. In the 1980s, when NTR took up his legendary battle against Indira Gandhi, the BJP was nowhere in the scene, yet many BJP veterans saw NTR's politics from a close range.
Friendship and personal rapport struck. On the other hand, Jaganmohan is essentially from the 'Congress DNA' background and thus even if adjustments were made here and there during the last four years--- the real friendship between YSRCP and BJP did not blossom.
However, in the central politics and in parliament floor coordination, understanding between YSRCP and BJP has been good.
There is another key factor. The general image is that the YSRCP has been pro-Christians and thus 'going may not be smooth' with a pro-Hindutva outfit. The TDP instead always focused on characters of Hindu mythology and belief --- from Viswamitra to Lord Krishna. NTR's political travel used to be through Chaitanya Ratham. In the new era, TDP's e-paper is also named Chaitanya Ratham.
In 2016 during TDP's Tirupati Convention, the then Union Minister Ashok Gajapathi Raju had even claimed that PM Modi's 'Congress mukt Bharat' is originally the first clarion call of N T Rama Rao.
Of course, for his part, Naidu has been 'less religious' and always believed in politics with the approach of a 'doer' -- a CEO or a corporate honcho. His 'building up' of Hyderabad was essentially guided by this philosophy. But about 'anti-Congress DNA', there is only a half-told story. The story had begun in 2018 when the TDP struck an alliance with the grand old party in Telangana to take on KCR and his Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). As always the Congress votes did not transfer and Naidu's party could win only two seats.
The 'Maha Kootami' (Grand Alliance) experiment formed by Congress, Telangana Jana Samithi, TDP and CPI came a cropper. But the Congress benefited to win 19 seats (out of 99 it fought) and most of these were TDP-strongholds.
Now the hands of clock have taken a full circle, and hence the move for 'exploring' new roadmaps. Although the Karnataka election mandate is being cited in certain quarters as a trigger for TDP-BJP unity once again; the BJP insiders admit feelers were 'sent and received' from both sides much earlier.
Telangana sends 17 Lok Sabha members and in 2019, the Lotus party did well to pick up four seats -- a neat gain of three than its 2014 performance. Importantly, the BJP vote share in Telangana Lok Sabha polls was 19.45 percent as against 29.48 percent by the Congress and 41.29 percent by K Chandraasekhar Rao's TRS -- which is now renamed as Bharatiya Telangana Samithi.
TDP vote share in 2018 assembly polls in Telangana was a modest 3.5 percent.
However, K Chandrasekhar Rao could not push his party in the national electoral canvas despite high ambitions and sincere efforts from time to time. The BJP has set a higher number of seats from Telangana in 2024. The TDP chief's hidden rivalry against KCR has also led to the latest developments. The BJP is ambitious to wrest power in Telangana.
Politically, the BJP understands that the law of the average for Lok Sabha polls suggests the saffron party will face stiff challenges in some northern and western states. Sources said the BJP has done well in assembly polls in 2017 and 2022 in Uttar Pradesh and is pretty strong in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Nevertheless, the BJP poll strategists are working overtime now to turn the curve in Karnataka where the BJP suffered serious setback of drop of 40 assembly seats.
Embracing TDP and that too under a towering personality and a staunch regionalist N Chandrababu Naidu will help BJP fight the 'perception battle' that it is not wanted in the south. And to be closer to the party in power in Delhi will give Chandrababu Naidu also some benefits.
Naidu has always been a pragmatic politician. In Mumbai at a business chambers' meeting in 2002 he was asked why he declined Prime Ministership in 1996-97. His response was emphatic - "If I know my strengths, I also know my weaknesses". The situation stands at a crossroads even now. He has to strike the right balance between his strengths and BJP's weaknesses and also between his weaknesses and BJP's strengths.
Let us not forget, Naidu was the country's original "pro-development" Chief Minister and the tag "CEO" was put to him in the 1990s when politics was still about the right mix of caste and community!
Leo Tolstoy may be out of fashion these days. Once he said, “I did not myself know what I wanted: I feared life, desired to escape from it, yet still hoped something of it". The quote seems relevant for the TDP supremo.
ends
 |
| Naidu with journos from Delhi |
(Nirendra Dev is a New Delhi-based journalist. He is also author of the books 'The Talking Guns: North East
India', and 'Modi to Moditva: An Uncensored Truth'. Views expressed are personal)
No comments:
Post a Comment