Much ado about Nothing::: Opposition Unity may fail to defeat Modi in at least 240 seats and that's huge advantage for Modi

Pollsters' season has just commenced. Analysts will go full steam analysing and taking closer looks on how the opposition meet at Patna had 'quick fix' formula ad how Narendra Modi could be defeated in 2024. 

But BJP and Modi himself enjoys some advantages. The inherent contradictions between the opposition parties are huge and in multiple forms.

In a previous blog, we saw that in at least 370 Lok Sabha constituencies, the so-called opposition unity is not required or cannot be implemented on ground. 

The AAP has issues with the Congress on the Delhi Ordinance.  In West Bengal, the Left parties cannot join any front which has Mamata Banerjee as a key protagonist. All this is not over. Congress floor leader in Lok Sabha, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, is irked by Mamata's continues efforts to poach and attack its leaders. 

There is also 'statistics-advantage' for Modi and the BJP.  In 2014 and 2019, Modi substantial seats polling more than 50 percent of votes in those constituencies. That's pretty huge number as in general sense parliamentary seats in India can be won even by bagging 30-35 per cent of votes in most segments. Once this advantage applied to Congress.  

In 1971, Indira Gandh-led Congress had won 262 seats with more than 50 percent of votes. The 'grip' in some/most of such segments prevailed even in 1977 polls when Congress lost but could win 260 seats with more than 50 percent of votes. For his part, Modi won 136 seats with more than 50 percent of votes in 2014 and this numbe jumped to 222 in 2019.

That means in these 222 seats, the BJP could have won even if the opposition had united and put up single candidate.

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Now take a closer look at constituencies in states such as Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Do they really require opposition unity?

We also have states such as Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, 

 Rajasthan, Goa and Karnataka, where either advantage BJP or advantage Congress, the contest is one-on-one. In Karnataka this was proved in recent assembly polls.

The JD(S) of Deve Gowda too was in the fray but as Muslim votes moved towards Congress, there was no stopping. 

It comes to about 130 parliamentary seats where regional parties have marginal or negligible roles. This is also substantial numbers -- more than the double of Congress tally in the present Lok Sabha.  

Of course, in Gujarat the AAP has emerged a key player but it has miles to go to pose any serious threat to the BJP.

AAP is today only a serious contender to the Congress space and so-called unity may even lead to further decimation of the grand old party in the state that gave Modi and that incidentally is also the home state of Mahatma Gandhi. 

On to a different plane, in 2002 after riots Sonia Gandhi campaigned in Polbander raising the names of Gandhiji and also his assassin Nathuram Godse. The result did not make any difference.

 

The so-called Opposition unity may not make much of a difference in northeastern states that account 25 Lok Sabha MPs. Of course in Assam, in some Muslim-dominated seats AIUDF and Congress nexus could make a difference. But the Congress may ensure 'Hindu polarisation' in the process against itself and instead give away a big and much crucial advantage to the BJP. 

 

NDPP leader Rio : Nagaland 

So which are the states where 'Opposition Unity' would matter. These include Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, and possibly Haryana. This comes to about 140 seats only. In UP, Mayawati is spoilsport and in Bengal; local conditions do not augur for a so-called united fight. The communists cannot approve such moves and Congress will put itself in disadvantage.

Now importantly, we need to look at states such as Bihar - where Nitish Kumar (an opportunist to the core) hosted the first cementing session. The fact of the matter is his state already has 'advantage' of so-called Opposition Unity. There are more such states - Maharshtra where Sharad Pawar has stitched an alliance among NCP, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress. 

The Congress has alliances with JMM in Jharkhand, RJD, Left and JD(U) in Bihar and DMK in Tamil Nadu.

These states make up 142 Lok Sabha seats. 

"We talk about Opposition unity before every election but the major issue is that regional parties across India are born out of an anti-Congress DNA. Therefore, it is so simple when we see TDP and BJP trying to redraw their roadmaps," says an observer who understands the shenanigans of Andhra Pradesh politics very well.