Manipur is back - where it was; Militancy - A low-risk and high-return vocation

 Manipur is back - where it was; Militancy - A low-risk and high-return vocation

'Great Expectations' from Modi and folkhero Biren Singh failed 

New Delhi

Protagonists curious about Nagaland could be complaining - we all have remainedstatus quoists. In Manipur things moved but it too has come back to the same oldmess. Now, it may be euphemistically called 'Skill-Manipur 2.0'.

Guerilla and armed warfare is back. Miss India contests or so that happened just in Aprilnow seem a thing of the past. The high-yielding and low-risk game is back. Insurgency is alsoa skilled-industry !

The state's Double Engine government which was bringing in developments, good roads, bridgesand investments now appears like a 'failed model'. The President's Rule should have comerather easily, but there is a cautious element -- let us not antagonize the majority Meiteis. The state couldthen land into worse kinds of polarisation.

'Nagaland Page'

Arms and ammunition looted suggest the lost weapons could have helped set up a small-sized'army' by itself. Senior army officers are camping in the valley but their hands are almost tied as the essential tool Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) is not enforced.

On the other hand, the lives of common people are caught between the state actors and the non-state actors. 

People's protest and anguish at all levels are well supported by propaganda and these getenhanced as they are reminded of 'system failures' and decades of misgovernance, government neglect and immense corruption.Truly, it takes years of hard work to make and reform a society something; but it took a few odd weeksand things are nightmarish and hateful.

“Overground workers” are now slowly making themselves available to multiple groups to carry out anti-army and anti-India propaganda, and indulge in house-to-house tax collections,sources say.

According to informed sources, the next rounds of 'apprehensions' that could grip the violence-hit stateare money-spinning games through abductions. There will be a lot of arms and 'trained cadres'too available on ground. And for hideouts, there would be safe havens possibly in Bangladesh and also a fewrisky zones in Myanmar. 

What went wrong? Did it all happen during the last few weeks of turmoil or a few months of conspiracy? Old-timers say things started on wrong-footing way back in 1949. It was neither BJP's era nor of the 'people of the republic'. Infancy days after Independence, the story goes that a protesting Maharaja Bodhachandra Singh was summoned in Shillong in 1949 and 'forced' to sign the instrument of merger.And then --- nobody bothered to care. It took years of journey. First the C-Category of state and thenUnion Territory and ultimately in 1972 - the prized statehood. Because the jungles of Naga hills were burning -- the statehood for Nagaland came in 1963.

It started 'pinching'. The line followed that the Meiteis and Manipur as a state were being neglected; and thusthe United National Liberation Front of Manipur (UNLF) was floated on Nov 24, 1964. The 'international' players had entered the muddy waters. The UNLF headquarter was in Sylhet (then East Pakistan). 

The PLA came in 1978 and by 1980, came in another militant group- PREPAK.

In between the Neta-Babu raj was not the 'complete' story of Manipur's ill-fate. The two powerfullobbies were joined by the 'contractors and unscrupulous businessmen'.  It was the complete axis of 'contract builders-politicians-and officials'. Huge money was pumped in fromDelhi and the rest is history as the corruption thived.

The state has 40 insurgent groups. The situation in hills was also hardly good and hubs such asChandel, Churachandpur, Tamenglong, Senapati and Ukhrul always faced immense hostilities betweenNagas and Kukis and both the communities against the Indian army.  

The Meitei population or the voters preferred polarised games and often leaders such O Ibobi Singha and N BirenSingh were rewarded electorally.  

The Meiteis always felt the Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reform Act imposed in the statedid not allow the valley Meitei and Pangal (Meitei Muslim) groups to settle in the hills whereasthe hilly tribes could settle in the valley. The reservation in universities, medical college and jobs

again complicated things further. Thus came the demand for ST status for Meiteis.

Meitei Muslims/Pangals also developed problems with Hindus and in 1993 there was a lot of violence.The Pangals then floated the People’s United Liberation Front (PULF), with the aim of safeguarding thecommunity interest. Because of the 'religion-based' approach, they could enlist assistance from ISI ofPakistan easily and so 'logistic support' became much easier from Bangladesh. The coordinationbetween the ULFA leaders who were allowed free entry and 'business operation' in Bangladesh gave theguerilla groups a field's day.

In terms of governance, there was a lot of expectation from the Modi government. Hence the BJPcould capture power in 2017 and also in 2022. By that time Biren Singh was also a Meitei folk hero.But things did not develop according to wisemen's plans. Something went wrong. 

The High Court mandate was possibly in a hurry and now the state is polarised.  

"Politically Manipur is a case of mishandling of things." says a source adding suddenly the carrot and stickpolicy was disturbed especially with Kuki groups. Kukis dominate even in the strategic Moreh area.

"From outside,it may not be understood well. But the fact is if one community or a groupin a community is won over, appeased and ensured developments, the demands of many suchoutfits conflict with each other and an agreement of peace with one can

become a cause for agitating the minds of other groups," the source tried to sum up the basiccomplexity of the challenges.

After the 2021 Myanmar coup, things got complicated in Manipur and the neighbouring state of Mizoram.

The 'crisis' has been fuelled by long-standing tensions between the ethnic Meitei or non-tribals in Imphal valley and Kuki tribal communities living in the hills. The Myanmar violence resulted in growing numbers of Zo and smaller tribes coming into Manipur and Mizoram as 'refugees' fleeing counterinsurgency operations by the junta in Myanmar.

Many of these refugees belong to the same ethnic group, the Kuki-Chin-Zomi-Mizo tribe and there are reasons to believe that some refugees have started living in the hills of Manipur.

After recent clashes again another problem area has developed wherein the 'trans-movement' of the Hmar,

Paiteis and Kuki tribes along the Manipur-Mizoram border have increased. In 1995-96 also such thingshad been reported when there were Naga-Kuki clashes.

Hence, no one perhaps believes that normalcy will return so fast. Thus it can be best aseason for 'campaign for peace involving all sections'. And wait for the cycle of violence to end,time is again the best drug.

ends