Sunday, January 29, 2023

Congress-Left nexus gives major boost to BJP poll prospects in Tripura


New Delhi/Agartala


Ending hours of suspense, the BJP has finally decided to name its candidate for the prestigious Agartala seat in Tripura.


In a late evening announcement on Sunday, party leader Arun Singh said Ms Papiya Dutta, a state unit general secretary of, will be the party nominee in this seat which has been for long a bastion of  Congress stalwart Sudip Roy Barman.


It is altogether a different chapter that in 2018, Roy Barman had won the seat on BJP ticket.  Electioneering has picked up slowly in this northeastern state which was once a red forte but the BJP has been in power since the last five years.


The saffron party leaders including from Centre have brought in a number of key infrastructural changes like the new look airport at Agartala and also a number of road projects.   



Amid the heat and dust of yet another round of fierce contest ahead, apparently the BJP has got an advantage. 

Interaction on ground zero suggests a large number of CPI-M cadres and supporters have decided to shift allegiance to the BJP and many of them now openly attribute the Congress-Left alliance for the same.


An employee with a private company, Tota Biswas says, "In 2018 also such a scenario was seen. 

When the Sitaram Yechury-Mamata Banerjee axis was worked out during demonetisation in 2016, people had decided to support the BJP. The Left has not learned any lesson and this time they tried to work out an alliance with the traditional rival Congress".


Analysts say, the BJP was always ambitious to make a deeper penetration into Tripura. But the so-called 'communist orientation of Bengali middle class' used to pose a serious challenge.

This umbilical cord between Bengalis and the communists was broken in 2018, and it only got 'better' for the saffron party this year after the Congress and the Left agreed to form the Democratic Secular Front.


"We have been let down again," says Kutu Debroy, a voter in Kamalpur where the CPI-M has decided to allot the seat to Congress quota. Debroy, 42, says, "This is a traditional communist seat. The Congress party has no existence and they just gave away the cakewalk for sitting BJP leader and Food Minister Manoj Kanti Deb".


In North Tripura, surprisingly contrary to the common belief from Kamalpur, the Congress has fielded a comparatively "much weaker" candidate Ms Rubi Gope and she will be no match to Manoj Deb.


Deb in 2018 had defeated CPI-M nominee Ms Bjoy Laxmi Singha by a margin of 2959 votes. Ms Gope on the other hand is a former Gram Pradhan and may not enlist support outside her locality. 

Manoj Deb, BJP : Kamalpur



Meanwhile, Congress stalwart Sudip Roy Barman told 'Organiser' - "We are confident of doing well in the polls".


On the alliance with the Left, he said as of now the Congress is sticking to its decision to field 17 candidates in this year's polls as against 13 left for the grand old party by the communists.


"We are sincere about the alliance with the Left parties. This was a practical decision and so we had decided to bury her old competition and formed the alliance alliance— Democratic Secular Front," he said, however, adding negotiations are still on to ensure that the partnership forged between Left and the Congress remains intact.


"There were already reports of serious resentment and frustrations among the Congress workers who felt that it would not be possible for them to work together with the CP-M," says Agartala-based analyst Manas Paul.


In the first list of 48 candidates released on Saturday, the BJP named 11 women candidates. The Lotus party also fielded Union Minister Pratima Bhowmick to contest from Dhanpur.


This segment was a red-forte and was represented by Marxist veteran Manik Sarkar. The former Chief Minister Sarkar and a few other senior Leftist legislators have decided to stay away from this year's polls in Tripura.


According to BJP's list of candidates, Chief Minister Manik Saha will contest from Town Bordowali in Agartala while senior leader Rattan Lal Nath will contest from Mohanpur.


From Kailashahar, the BJP nominee will be sitting MLA (and former CPI-M leader) Md Moboshar Ali. The former Marxist joined the BJP on Friday in Delhi.





In 2018, the BJP achieved a major milestone in the Christian-stronghold and tribal majority north east when it stormed to power in Tripura  and ousted the Marxists. Nearly 80 percent of the state's 3.8 million people in the state are Bengali-speaking Hindus, mostly migrated from earlier East Pakistan and now Bangladesh.


The Lotus poll strategists banked on pressing issues like unemployment, women empowerment and industrialization to garner support.


"The mandate in Tripura was crucial as it gave a big encouragement for BJP workers across the country and especially in other parts of northeastern states," UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had said in 2018 after the election results.


One big advantage for the BJP this year will be the fact that the communists feel marginalised across the state and hence have settled for an alliance with their traditional rivals in the state, the Congress.


The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress tried its luck in last year's assembly by-polls and municipal polls but could not make a mark. Essentially the state does not have much of a Bengali Muslim population and hence West Bengal Chief Minister's popularity in her state will not make much of a difference in Tripura.





ends 

Tripura has been ruled by a communist government since the 1990s and Manik Sarkar was the Chief Minister between 1998 and 2018. The BJP party strategists, sources say, worked on different poll strategies in Tripura.


The likes of Sunil Deodhar, BJP in-charge for Tripura in 2018, gave a catchy slogan 'Chalo Paltai (Let us Change) and it worked effectively. 



New Delhi/Agartala


Ending hours of suspense, the BJP has finally decided to name its candidate for the prestigious Agartala seat in Tripura. In a late evening announcement on Sunday, party leader Arin Singh said Ms Papiya Dutta, a party general secretary in the state unit, will be the party nominee in this seat which has been for long a bastion of Congress stalwart Sudip Roy Barman.


"We are confident of doing well in the polls in Tripura this year and ousting the non-performing BJP government in Tripura looks possible," Roy Barman told this journalist. 

Blogger in CPI-M office 



He said as of now the Congress is sticking to its decision to field 17 candidates in this year's polls as against 13 as was left for the grand old party by the communists.


"We are sincere about the alliance with the Left parties. This was a practical decision and so we had decided to bury our old competition and formed the alliance alliance — Democratic Secular Front," he said, however, adding 

negotiations are still on to ensure that the partnership forged between Left and the Congress remains intact.


"There were already reports of serious resentment and frustrations among the Congress workers who felt that it would not be possible for them to work together with the CP-M," says Agartala-based analyst Manas Paul.


Ms Papiya Dutta



In 2018, Sudip Roy Barman was elected on BJP ticket but he quit the party in 2021 over his reservation to work with the then Chief Minister Biplab Deb. The saffron party later replaced Biplab Deb with incumbent Chief Minister Dr Manik Saha.


According to the Congress list, party stalwart Sudip Roy Barman would fight from Agartala constituency while

Asish Saha will be Congress nominee from Town Bordowali.


Asked if Ms Papiya Dutta as a BJP rival has made his task easier, Sudip Roy Barman said, " I do not look at

electoral politics. Every fight is a serious contest. But as an individual candidate, I know her. She does not bring

in any extra votes. She will of course get the BJP's share of the votes".


Former BJP MLA, D C Hrangkhawl, would contest on Congress ticket from Karamchara constituency. 

Former TPCC president Birajit Sinha would fight from Banamalipur.


In North Tripura, surprisingly contrary to the common belief from Kamalpur Congress fielded Rubi Gope, who will take on Food Minister Manoj Kanti Deb. This has made the Minister's job much easier. 

Kamalpur was a traditional Left bastion and the fact that Leftists left the seat for Congress was itself a big surprise. Ms Gope was a Gram Pradhan from Kalarchhari area in Kamalpur of Dhalai district.


In the first list of 48 candidates released on Saturday, the BJP named 11 women candidates.The Lotus party also 

fielded Union Minister Pratima Bhowmick to contest from Dhanpur.





This segment was a red-forte and was represented by Marxist veteran Manik Sarkar. The former Chief Minister Sarkar and a few other senior Leftist legislators have decided to stay away from this year's polls in Tripura.

According to BJP's list of candidates, Chief Minister Manik Saha will contest from Town Bordowali in Agartala while senior leader Rattan Lal Nath will contest from Mohanpur.


From Kailashahar, the BJP nominee will be sitting MLA (and former CPI-M leader) Md Moboshar Ali. The former Marxist joined the BJP on Friday in Delhi.


In 2018, the BJP achieved a major milestone when it stormed to power in Tripura. Nearly 80 percent of the state's 3.8 million people are Bengali-speaking Hindus, mostly migrated from Bangladesh.


Tripura has been ruled by a communist government since the 1990s and Manik Sarkar was the Chief Minister between 1998 and 2018. The BJP party strategists, sources say, worked on different poll strategies in Tripura.


The likes of Sunil Deodhar, BJP in-charge for Tripura in 2018, gave a catchy slogan 'Chalo Paltai (Let us Change) and it worked effectively. The Lotus party strategists also realised that unlike northern states like Uttar Pradesh, they did not make any issue of banning beef or cow vigilantism. Instead they banked on more pressing issues like unemployment, women empowerment and industrialization.


Kamalpur : Town pond 







Even the state government servants were wooed by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi promising  that the BJP if voted to power will implement the 7th Pay Commission report.


The mandate in Tripura was crucial as it gave a big encouragement for BJP workers across the country and

especially in other parts of northeastern states. 


However, five years since then much water has flown across river Dhalai and hence anti-incumbency issues

have cropped up. Sensing the mood, the BJP leadership replaced Biplab Deb by bringing in a medico and state unit

president Dr Manik Saha.


One big advantage for the BJP this year will be the fact that the communists feel marginalised across the state and hence they have settled for an alliance with their traditional rivals in the state, the Congress.


The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress tried its luck in last year's assembly by-polls and municipal polls but could not make a mark. Essentially the state does not have much of a Bengali Muslim population and hence West Bengal Chief Minister's popularity in her state will not make much of a difference in Tripura.


ends 


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