Assam electoral data is a matter of detailed study itself.
In 2011, official census shows --- the Muslim population was above 33 per cent.
But within five years - that is 2016 -- the political dynamics had changed and the BJP along with allies could capture power for the first time. The saffron magic was repeated even in 2021.
Of course now all eyes are on 2026 assembly polls.
Now take the instance of Keraala -- in 2021 -- the unthinkable happened. The Congress could not bounce back to power following the usual five-year-break tradition. Hence, the communists LDF retained power and as a result there is a strong anti-incumbency mood in the southern state and rightly so. Perhaps, the Congress is expected to have a smooth sail to power and not many would be surprised if such a thing happens.
The sycophants gang in the grand old party may quickly jump on to call such an outcome as the endorsement of the leadership of the sister-brother (Priyanka Gandhi Vadra-Rahul Gandhi) duo.
That's not the debate here.
Actually the real debate that should centre around is the utter confidence expounded by Amit Shah when during his recent visit to Kerala -- he said the next chief minister in the state will be from the BJP. This sounds fictional even to this pro-Hindutva brigade blogger. But statistics and perception games may force one to have to rethink.
In general we know the trump card in Kerala's politics is held by Christians. This minority community for all practical reasons do not share any bonhomie with the BJP and the RSS. But Christian brethren in Goa and north eastern states have been voting for the saffron outfit. Shah has thus tried to bank on this simple factor and is hoping to surprise the nation yet again.
As far as election strategies go -- Amit Shah as Chanakya of BJP has delivered miracles in UP in 2014 and even the Assam outcome in 2016 was such a tall milestone.
Moreover, for Christians in Kerala -- other facets of politics matter. One such strong issue is Love Jihad. The phrase actually started in Kerala itself and the first proponents were Christians and especially one particular media group. So if Christians in Kerala want to counter Muslims or IUML -- which is a permanent ally of the Congress - this vulnerable community and especially the Catholics from few specific denominations may actually prefer Lotus party candidates.
Small miracles in favour of the BJP have already taken place in Kerala -- in 2024, it won a Lok Sabha seat. And now almost another mythical achievement is that the BJP has its mayor in the state capital.
The Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation has been a Marxists' control show for the last four decades and hence the BJP's win is certainly not usual electoral setback or accident. It shows a tectonic shift in voters' mind.
Let us move on. The real question is whether such anti-Muslim sentiment among Christians will translate into pro-BJP votes. PM Narendra Modi had sensed these a few years back and during Hyderabad meet of party's national executives -- he had directed office bearers and minister to launch extensive 'outreach' programme to woo Christians especially in Kerala.
As we keep repeating in journalism -- the answer to such questions lie in the womb of time and what is also known as public perception.
Take references to data and the manner the Congress plays its politics.
If Christians in Kerala start believing the Congress would not be in position to stall the growth of Muslim League and also not stop the Leftists grab power; they may look at the saffron party as some kind of strategic voting.
We will go back to Assam and Kerala data again ---
In 2011 - the BJP got 11 percent vote in Kerala.
This jumped to 16 in 2016 assembly polls and in 2024 parliamentary elections; the pro-Hindutva party's vote share jumped to 20 per cent.
Now take Assam or even smaller states like Tripura (which was also a red bastion).
In UP -- BJP got 33 per cent votes in 1991 and could capture power surprising the friends and foes alike. The Mandal politics which had started just around 1990-91 could not stall the Lotus party's march.
In Tripura - in 2018 -- BJP had no single MLA but once the polls were held that year -- the Leftists had lost and the NDA came to power.
In Assam -- the Congress dominated the scene in three consecutive polls -- 2001, 2006 and 2011.
But in 2016 -- the so-called electoral engineering worked well and the BJP came to power. An AGP leader Sarbananda Sonowal became CM and an ex-Congressman Himanta Biswa Sarma became Finance Minister.
In 2011, Muslim population in Assam stood at 33.38 per cent. This had increased in 2016 and 2021 as well. But the demography lost to politics of Perception.
In terms of vote-share in 2011 -- the BJP stood below the milestone of Muslim-backed AIUDF.
The BJP vote share in 2011 stood at 16.10 per cent. BJP's seats tally was only 27. The Congress could poll over 39 per cent votes and seats won were 78.
The BJP's vote share in 2016 (within two years of Modi Govt in power) jumped to 41.9 per cent. The seat tally also jumped to 86.
This jump is a testimony that unprecedented growth trajectory for the BJP is not a surprise thing or one-day fluke/wonder.
ends
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