Bangladesh does not miss Sheikh Hasina is a different chapter altogether. The country is in chaos -- to put it mildly.
Tomorrow - if someone says Yunus has left the country and no one knows where are leaders of newly floated National Citizens Party (NCP) - the citizens of Bangladesh have reached a stage --- where they no longer would miss Ministers, higher bureaucracy, policy makers etc etc.
Why ? - This is not a Kaun Banega Crorepati question.
Khaleda's son Tarique Rahman with wife and daughter
The easiest answer would be -- Leaders are not missed when there is no leadership (or governance) worth the name.
Hence it is not without good reasons that pressure would mount on Tarique Rahman, likely next PM of Bangladesh, first to promise and then to deliver miracles --- if at all he can assume the responsibility of immensely development-starved nation.
The delay in holding elections has boomeranged on Yunus and his interim arrangements.
This also exposed the new political dispensation in power and also their associates Jamaat. Whether this exposes Deep West and Pakistan will be answered some other day.
But the inability to hold elections till now has actually "humbled certain narratives".
"Advisers who hailed from prominent NGO backgrounds, once prolific critics of state incapacity and lack of transparency from the outside, found their grand, idealistic rhetoric colliding with the immense complexities of actually running a country. Their once-loud proclamations were inevitably moderated by the weight of executive responsibility," goes an article in 'The Daily Star'.
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| Khakeda Zia |
But the debate does not end at that level only.
Now pressure seems to be mounting on BNP leader Tarique Rahman, Khaleda's son. His tight rope walk sounds easier than easily done on ground.
Rahman realises the misguided route taken by his country in the last 17 months -- that is since Aug 2024 when their arch rival Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League had to flee to India.
He has to keep communal-amity and hence he started saying Bangladesh belongs to Muslims, Christians, Buddhists and Hindus. He has so far not taken any hardliner stance against India.
An eight-member delegation representing minority communities met BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman and submitted an eight-point memorandum.
The minority leaders urged the BNP leadership to include their suggestions as 'formal commitments' in the election manifesto.
Those present at the meeting included Puja Udjapan Parishad President Basudeb Dhar,
... leaders from Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council and also Dhakeshwari National Temple Managing Committee President Chitra Ranjan Majumdar.
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Tarique Rahman's party earlier did not quite have good relations with the minorities especially Hindus. Hence; it may be tough for a future BNP regime to deliver on these sensitive matters once it comes to power after the polls.
There are other issues at stake too. Khaleda had matured into a good public leader. She also faced challenges. But Tarique is likely to become Prime Minister when his country is virtually ungovernable and this is largely due to misguided paths taken first during the protest against Hasina regime and secondly after the interim Govt took charge of governance.
The pressure on Tarique would be to emerge 'a better leader than Khaleda and even Sheikh Hasina' to an extent. Can he really disown completely the old friendship with Jamaat and old fundamentalist friends remain to be seen.
A mere handshake with Indian foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar does not prove anything.
"Had the interim government, formed on August 8, 2024, acted as a caretaker, conducted elections within 90 days, and then departed, people would have imagined—perhaps unrealistically—that the interim administration could have solved many of the country's problems," says intellectual Md Firoj Alam.
These bring us to the next stage -- what kind of Govt apparatus and the legacy as a country - Tarique would get once he wins the elections. Of course even until now things remain conditional because no one is sure beyond doubts that polls will be held on time.
Feb 12 election - appears will be the exit order for Yunus and his team.
This will leave Jamaat, new NCP leaders, Yunus himself and his puppet masters and Pakistan and the US frustrated and leaking wounds.
This is certainly a tall order. The fallout - therefore - will be immense on Tarique and his leadership ability.
Tarique's mistakes so far :
^^ Reportedly he did not approve party supporters and foot soldiers raising slogan 'Tarique Zindabad'. Some workers feel - on the face value it gives an impression of humility; but the interpretation can be he is unable to gauge public mind.
At such crises time; faceless party supporters and workers have very high expectations from Tarique and hence they feel ... such slogans are only symbols of sincere affection of voters and workers and hence should not be discarded so easily.
Secondly; Tarique's refrain during his Dec 25 speech was that 'I have a plan'. This sounded as an observation of patronage by the leader. Most analysts feel Tarique must have said so in the context of various government welfare measures once his party comes to power after the polls.
But this is also a case of easier said then demonstrated on ground.
Moreover; Tarique will have to soon work or project a programme digest and the themes of his future policies.
Welfarism alone can work well and win elections in the west. In South Asia; politics is also lot about dynamism and perceptions. This is linked to voters' emotional yardstick.
When we say these --- three cornerstones have to be taken into consideration.
Democratisation -- this challenge is known to all and Tarique will be under pressure to handle various stake holders. How could his country be called inclusive when a political force such as the Awami League - which can probably even today garner 20-30 per cent of votes -- is kept at bay during polling process.
Secondly - Globalisation. This just has changed all its meanings in the context of Bangladesh.
And thirdly Economic liberalisation. -- This remains far off in today's Bangladesh. Tarique and his Team (or even cabinet) will have to perform like super-heroes whereas the fact of the matter is -- all leaders (political class as a whole) probably is reduced as mere mortals.
How these challenges will be handled ?
In the final analysis; the BNP as a political outfit will be judged by a stringent yardstick. In a year or so .. as a political party; the BNP will soon have a role to achieve (or ensure) the real transition from the previous low-ebb to get back its 'lost status' of a performing developing nation in South Asia.
A nation in chaos is actually the worst kind of turmoil one can imagine. In the erstwhile Soviet Union; communism survived for 74 years but when the end came closer -- the onetime powerful USSR collapsed within three days.
One big lesson Bangladeshis should draw from the USSR experience is that the national unity and integration cannot be imposed or stolen.
They live in the hearts of men and women - the faceless people.
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| Rural Tripura = Not far from Bangladesh border |
ends
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