Some years back, western magazine 'The Economist' said : “Brand” Rahul, .... convincingly, is confused. A man of immense privilege, rising only because of his family name, struggles to look convincing when he talks of meritocracy."
The predicament is the real challenge. And it's still haunting India's grand old party.
The overall 'impression' of Rahul Gandhi from his biographer Aaarthi Ramachandran is that of a figure/personality who has an ill-defined urge to improve the lives of poor Indians, but no real idea of how to do so.
He feels obliged to work in politics, but his political strategies are half-baked.
Rahul has failed to develop strong ties with any particular constituency. He often found 'preferring to pitch himself' as a man ready to drink the dirty water of village peasants, and to eat food among the most marginalised of society; but his failure to follow up on such gestures (and many others), with policy or prolonged interventions to help a particular group, suggests a man who strikes an attitude but lacks skills in delivering real change.
Nothing much has changed in him but India has changed and so has the political fortunes of both the BJP and the Congress. The grand old party is today unable to draw a clear plan vis-a-vis electoral strategies.
The opposition alliance of which Congress is a member has been lurching from crisis to crisis. Beyond wanting to topple Narendra Modi, little unites the more than two dozen parties, says 'The Guardian'.
The party is not clear who should contest from Rae Bareli, which was represented by Sonia Gandhi, and also Amethi - the 'family bastion' which Rahul himself lost in 2019 to a die-hard Narenda Modi admirer and BJP leader Smriti Irani. The indecisiveness is the biggest enemy in politics but this is what has haunted Congress now for years.
Around 2014 and even in 2015 after BJP lost two polls in Delhi (Feb.) and Bihar in November; a strong theory was circulated that Narendra Modi's days are numbered. A section of English media and 'pheku clubs' said Modi's countdown has started. In the midst of all these, the Congress also believed if we are out of the centre. we will grow 'stronger' in the states.
Well in some states, BJP was thrown big time challenge but that challenge came from regional parties - JD(U) and RJD in Bihar and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. It's true Modi benefited by a big chunk of anti-Congress and anti-UPA votes largely due to issues related to misgovernance, corruption and indecisiveness. Narendra Modi knew how to consolidate from that position.
There was hardly any complacency -- something the Congress has excelled in. Modi corrected his electoral journey by wresting power in Assam in 2016. The Congress under veteran Tarun Gogoi lost a crucial poll and yet did not realise the impact of that defeat. Since then Modi and his friend and lieutenant Amit Shah did not look back. They worked hard and ensured BJP's victory in Uttar Pradesh in 2022.
In the meantime, Congress started losing one leader after another. In Assam - Himanta Biswa Sarma already quit Congress and became a key face of the BJP and NEDA in northeast. The Congress also lost power in Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand. Punjab was a saving grace but the man who ensured Punjab win - Capt Amarinder Singh was snubbed and shown disrespect.
By 2022 march, Punjab slipped out of the Congress hand. Several leaders quit including the likes of Jitin Prasad and Jyotiraditya Scindia. And by 2024 even people like Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ashok Chavan are out. Altogether over a dozen former Congress chief minister quit the grand old party. So did even leaders such as Milind Deora whose father Murli Deora was a key party leader from Maharashtra.
But in the Congress camp it is given to understand that Rahul Gandhi has remained 'unmoved' and cool. If someone is not committed to Congress ideology, they better quit -- became an unofficial fashion statement. The weakening of Congress is directly linked to the growth of the BJP and a near 'invincible power' in Narendra Modi.
For its part, the Congress party also could not handle issues related to people'e emotion, Hindu sentiment and nationalism carefully. A peculiarly harsh anti-Modi personal hit-below belt jingoism have boomeranged a number of times. but the Congress leaders and especially Rahul Gandhi thought they are right and they need not change.
Now, with just a few weeks to go, the likelihood of the 'nationalist pro-Hindutva' PM Narendra Modi, returning to power for a third term is seen as almost inevitable.
While the Congress is seen as a weak, the opposition coalition is seen as non-serious and fractured even as many of its leaders have been jailed. The latest being Arvind Kejriwal of AAP. The Congress is AAP ally in Delhi and rival in Punjab. On the other hand, Modi and Amit Shah have jointly anchored an unprecedented consolidation of power and the 'Hindu nationalist politics' are acceptable and highly popular among voters - particularly in the populous northern states.
Some presumed Rahul Gandhi will fight Modi with his caste census demand and rhetoric around an idea that Other Backward Castes (OBCs) are neglected in India. Ironically, last caste census in India was carried out in 1931 during British era. The 1951 such an exercise was stalled allegedly by Jawaharlal Nehru, the towering Congress leader and Rahul's great grandfather.
Some feel the issue has been raised a bit late. It may perhaps need five to 10 years to mobilise opinion on this. At the same time, BJP leaders counter strongly stating
that no less than India's PM - Modi - is an OBC himself.
If leaders stay in ivory towers surrounded by sycophants, you cannot prepare to offer yourself as a challenger.
Part of the problem is presumably the coterie of advisers who surround Rahul Gandhi. Western-educated, bright and eager to cosset their leader within a very small bubble, they appear unready for the messy realities of Indian politics.
No one seems to understand the importance of some 'shady alliances' that are required to win elections; the need to strike deals with powerful regional satraps who increasingly shape national politics.
ends
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