Amid 'Modi Guarantee' in Indian elections Robust Opposition still a mirage

The 74-year old Narendra Modi, according to a Pew survey last year, enjoys a unique and special support or approval of  80 percent of Indians. 

His opponents try to look for multiple reasons to explain why despite 10-year in office as the Prime Minister and thirteen (13) years before that as Gujarat Chief Minister, there is no real anti-incumbency against him.

This is a world record. Of course, it may still be unwise to dismiss the undercurrent. But they say -- PM Modi sits atop a well-oiled campaign juggernaut awash in corporate donations. Even the corporate funding through Electoral Bonds has been found to be unconstitutional and has been banned by the Supreme Court.

Nevertheless, an huge money has already come to the ruling dispensation.  

In less than three weeks time, the first round of voting will take place in India to elect its new Lok Sabha - the 543-member House of the people. Various surveys and pre poll analysis by pundits give incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi a huge advantage. 

In many quarters a strong impression has been given that there is 'no real competition' or threat to the Prime Minister who had wrested power in 2014.

The last decade has been a typical 'Modi era' and his rule marked a departure from various

long lasting facets of Indian parliamentary democracy essentially cherishing pluralism.

But both Modi critics and admirers say -- the worst or the 'best' -- as one would see from different prisms- 

is yet to come. And, they say it could come in the next five years if Modi's ambitions are fulfilled. He is eyeing 

a brute majority with 400 plus seats for the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The NDA was floated in the 1990s when former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at the helm. 

Vajpayee was the moderate face of Hindutva politics -- who even had a personal liking for 'Gandhian

socialism'. But Modi is a hard-liner and a real tough nut. He thrives in strong Hindutva politics and

mixes his development and welfare in governance with a strong dosage of Hindu communalism in a country

of 1.45 billion people with nearly 80 of them are Hindus.

His associates such as 20-year younger Yogi Adityanath thrives in being called the Bulldozer baba.

As a result the minorities in many places feel threatened and they include Catholic Christians also besides Muslims

-- who are sadly blamed for India's partition in 1947 when Pakistan was carved out of a Hindu majority sub-continent.

"I say, the worst or the best of the Modi-led regime will come in the next few years depending on how one looks

at it. He has been a hyper active Hindutva leader already but if he musters an enhanced mandate of 400 plus

seats, PM Modi will go for pushing some radical changes in legal and social trajectories. India may opt for a 

Presidential form of politics and the Hindu way of life, social practice and teachings may be imposed in

school curriculum, social functions and also in administration," says social scientist Ramakanto Shanyal.

Union Railway and IT Minister Ashwain Vaishmaw says next five years are important as Prime Minister Narendra Modi will lay the roadmap for a Viksit Developed India by 2047.

Indian history of communal politics has a peculiar past.

 "In 1905 when Bengal under British rule

was partitioned in the name of religion; intellectuals revolted. But in 1947, the same intellectuals accepted

the partition. Again after independence, socialism and pluralism with protection guaranteed for minorities

were taken as a norm; but in the last 10 years under Modi, there have been pro-Hindutva approaches for

everything. This communal journey will be more strident, more Hindu rituals will be visible in public

life and as Masjids may be crushed down, people will clap," says Shanyal.

Agrees Ashutosh Talukdar, another keen observer in communally sensitive state of Assam.

"Modi has successfully weakened the opposition by various means. Some of it is created by opposition parties

themselves, but the Prime Minister has used official agencies to file corruption cases and order raids.

Forget India's minorities; various opposition leaders including from Congress are today threatened

and feel alarmed," says Talukdar.

Some of these allegations could be true as no less than Congress leader Rahul Gandhi recently claimed

that a senior leader from Maharashtra 'cried' before his mother Sonia Gandhi (former Congress president)

and then switched over to the BJP. The said leader had his name in an infamous housing scam. 

Congress leader Sanjay Das in Meghalaya said, "It is true we have a high unemployment rate across

India. But Modi is not bothered as even widespread criticism is unlikely to significantly change the election 

results...At least this is what BJP leaders feel. They can misuse power and our worst apprehension about

the hacking of EVMs". In today's India, nothing is ruled out because, "no one can really say no to 

Narendra Modi".

Here are a few instances which substantiate Sanjay's apprehensions.

Top Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was convicted on 'defamation charges' last year for insulting 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was disqualified. The conviction was later suspended by the 

Supreme Court.

The Congress party has said now it can’t campaign properly because Indian income tax officials have frozen 

its bank accounts due to a tax dispute. 

The Modi government took action against AAP leader and a prominent opposition face, Arvind Kejriwal.

Another Chief Minister in Jharkhand Hemant Soren was also put behind bars.

The Modi cabinet enacted a new law that gives the prime minister a seat on the selection committee for the 

three-member Indian Election Commission.

The arrest of Kejriwal has of course rekindled India’s ‘democratic backslide’ debate.

The US has protested and so has Germany but both the western allies has been told not to interfere in India's internal matters.

On the other hand, Modi's support base is intact.

Many Indian voters also perceive Modi as an incorruptible, non-dynastic figure who gets things done and keeps his promises, from implementing social welfare policies to building the controversial Ram Mandir temple. There is a reason one of his current campaign slogans is emphasizing the “Modi Guarantee”—that the leader comes through when he needs to, runs a piece in The Foreign Policy.

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