Elections are won, elections are lost.
But the age factor matters. The Congress has still not able to decide what it can do with the talent pool in the younger generation. Even this year, Milind Deora quit.
In terms of BJP’s ‘shift’ towards Generation Next – it all actually started way back in 2013 under Rajnath Singh as party president himself – and the move had clear blessings of the RSS leadership. The underlining theme that guided the saffron party in 2013 appointment of office bearers, 2014 distribution of tickets and also ministry formation and allotment of tickets in 2019 – is – ‘kisi ek neta ki nahi chali’.
In 2023, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje made exit from respective state capitals.
“The single biggest takeaway is that no individual is important,” a source said.
A leader went further – saying in 2024, it is likes of Pawan Sawant (53) or even the 33-year-old L S Tejaswi Surya – who will run the BJP. The new faces programme too has seemingly gone down well in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
In Uttar Pradesh – despite all criticism – the incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is not only a ‘younger’ face – he is precisely one year younger to Rahul Gandhi. A Sangh parivar functionary and close observer of things – says “Rajnath Singh started it in 2013 itself and this has been carried forward".
Karnataka
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 25 seats out of 28 while the Congress won just 1. But apart from being in power in the state in 2024, the Congress has two regional heavyweights in Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar. How much difference they can make ?
Can Congress repeat 2023 assembly polls performance. The Congress made a strong comeback in the Assembly elections held in May 2023 to return to power in the state, winning 135 of 224 seats.
Of course, the BJP is counting on the popularity of PM Narendra Modi, as well as the machinations of old warhorse and influential Lingayat leader B S Yediyurappa. BJP has an alliance partner in the JD(S) of H D Deve Gowda. This is to garner support amongst Vokkaligas.
In Maharashtra:
The BJP is banking on many factors. The “recognised” factions of Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde and NCP of Ajit Pawar are now with the BJP.
However, Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar are in the other camp, the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, including the Congress. Multiple factors and push and pull have made the scenario much complex.
In 2019, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena in alliance won 41 of the 48 seats (BJP 23 and Sena 18). The Congress-NCP alliance was reduced to just 5, with the Congress winning only one seat. A senior Congress leader Ashok Chava n has joined the BJP now.
Haryana
PM Narendra Modi intervened and replaced his friend Manohar Lal Khattar as the Chief Minister. The Jat factor bothers BJP though it has been in power in the state since 2014. The BJP has made an OBC the CM, and cut off ties with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party - JJP. Chautalas are Jats.
Again Modi factor remains. The BJP won all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019 but the going will be more challenging this time.
Amit Shah always says the road to power in New Delhi (the central government) is via Uttar Pradesh. This template remains. The saffron party is banking a lot on Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
The BJP won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2014 (73 for NDA with two for Apna Dal).
In 2019, it came down to 62 (64 for the NDA).
Five years back, the Samajwadi Party, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had stitched up a meaningful alliance in 2019, helping them dent the BJP dominance.
In 2024, the RLD is with the NDA and Jayant Chaydhary's grand pa Chaudhary Charan Singh was given the Bharat Ratna. The SP is aligned with the Congress, which has not made up any lost ground in UP.
The BSP led by influential Dalit leader Mayawati is contesting alone. That apart, the inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya, plus gains for the Hindu side at the disputed Kashi Vishwanath Temple-Gyanvapi Masjid complex, will work as boosters for the BJP.
The Lotus party is ambitious to get 80 but may consider itself lucky and fairly good to score around 75. These polls may be Do or Die battle for Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party.
With Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)’s re-entry, the BJP-led NDA is back to its formidable combination in Bihar.
The NDA won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 in Bihar. Along with Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), this alliance brings together the upper castes, the non-Yadav OBCs, the EBCs and Dalit Dusadhs.
On the other side are the RJD, Congress and Left, with a largely Muslim-Yadav base, plus some EBC influence. However, young RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has been drawing crowds. He has decided to highlight job issue as an agenda.
But it is also true, Lalu Yadav is not in best of his elements due to age and other factors.
The Congress has so far announced 25 guarantees, building up on similar promises which, it believes, helped it notch up wins in state polls in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana.
These include 5 ‘Nyay’ guarantees for youth, women and farmers each, and 10 more announced lately. Most of these were unveiled over the course of Rahul Gandhi’s Manipur-to-Mumbai Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.
To match these or otherwise, the BJP has 'Modi Ki Guarantee'.
The ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ is described as a guarantee for the “development of youth”, “empowerment of women”, “welfare of farmers”, and “progress of the marginalised. Also in public debate and greater scrutiny would be Congress double standards vis-a-vis its commitment to Hindus. The Congress decision to stay away from Ayodhya's Ram temple consecration will be highlighted by BJP leaders.
While Congress may try to bank on its spin on CAA and Electoral Bonds, its a matter of fact the CAA is a product of legacy of India's partition. And on Electoral Bonds, the Congress story is essentially grapes are sour. But what is the real explanation for it to finish No. 3 on the table behind Trinamool Congress.
Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge are trying to call it corruption; but some good amount went to Congress account too.
For Congress and other opposition parties, the farmers’ issues vis-a-vis the protest on MSP will be a poll topic. But on the other hand, the BJP leaders will have to work harder to convince voters on the significance of Agri and Labour reforms.
The Prime Minister touched upon a few issues in his address to 'India Today' conclave and other poll rallies. And from the government side, emphasis given to tech developments and visits by central leaders and minsters to north east will strike chord with the people.
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| Blogger |
BJP has to ensure real-time electoral success in southern states: While we try to analyse the Lotus party's electoral journey in southern states; it is also important to understand that the Congress too may find it difficult to retain its grip in states such as Kerala.
For BJP's 303 tally in 2019, 25 of them came from Karnataka and Telangana added another four. So rest 100 are with the Congress and its allies.
However, the BRS, YSRCP of Jagan Mohan Reddy, AIMIM are not its allies. On the other hand, JD-S is now a NDA constituent. BJP's alliance with TDP and Pawan Kalyan's party in Andhra is significant.
Congress drought in North
The Congress just had six seats out of as many as 225 spread across 10 states in central India.
The Congress was decimated in the Hindi heartland both in 2014 and 2019, resulting in the party plunging to its all-time low tally of 44 in 2014 and 52 in the last Lok Sabha elections.
In 2019, the Congress could win only 1 seat each in Uttar Pradesh (Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli), Bihar (Kishanganj) and Madhya Pradesh (Chhindwara), which together account for 149 seats.
Besides, the Congress could not open its account in Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It could also win only 2 seats in Chhattisgarh, and 1 in Jharkhand.
The BJP knows it did well in assembly elections in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2023.
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The BJP has been gaining ground in Bengal, but is dreaming yet again to dislodge the ruling Trinamool Congress.
In 2019 too, the 'Modi wave' and meticulous poll planning helped BJP to pick up 18 seats. It was just 4 behind the TMC’s 22. Now, some predictions are already out in the market that the BJP may win 25.
This time, the BJP is hoping that the Sandeshkhali episode will help it to leave the TMC red-faced.
The CAA is an added push to win some fringe votes. There are a huge number of 'Hindu refugees' in Bengal from Bangladesh who expect to now become valid Indian citizens.
Of course, the CAA will be an issue in Assam too; but strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma is expected to play his games well.
The voters of Assam are - however - smarter. And in 2021 assembly polls, the BJP was victorious even after the widespread anti-CAA protests of 2019-20.
In 2019, the BJP won 9 of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress won 3 and the AIUDF 1.
Punjab has 13 seats - one less than in Assam. The Aam Aadmi Party has done a serious blow to the Congress in the 2022 Assembly polls. The Congress has not been able to get its divided house in order still. Of course, the BJP is a weak opponent here. The Akalis too may not do very well.
The BJP is expected to do well in states such as Odisha and in north east along with its allies despite Manipur black-spot.
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