The Pakistan Army may not be interested in early polls and they did influence delay by a few months; but the military establishment also needs to ensure "economic recovery" for the country.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, said the military has plenty of good reasons not to delay elections any longer. "Investors and key donors, including the [International Monetary Fund], want to see less political uncertainty and economic recovery is a key priority for the army," he told Nikkei.
"Once again, different factors between now and India’s elections in 2024 portend a particularly dangerous time," says an article in a leading Pakistani newspaper 'Dawn'.
The 'Pakistan' factor comes into play in Indian elections. This usually happens in terms of battle of narratives as the Modi government has a 'firm' policy towards the western neighbour vis-a-vis terror sponsorship and related issues while a section of India's opposition parties has often favoured talks and candle light march -- keeping the pressing issues of fight against terror into a second fiddle.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has announced the general elections will be on Feb 8, 2024 after consulting with President Arif Alvi on the instruction from Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa. "God willing, elections will be held on Feb. 8," Isa remarked during a related court hearing. Interesting developments are unfolding. While the bitter critic of army, famed cricket star Imran Khan is jailed; a leading political star -- despite his age - former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif arrived Lahore ending his self-imposed 'exile' on Oct. 21 to a rousing welcome.
Nawaz Sharif is a political factor in the coming elections no doubt !!
Indian elections are not far away. Within five months, the world's largest democracy will get ready to elect its new government for next five years.
PM Narendra Modi is at the helm for last nine and half years and the 'right wing' nationalist leader is awaiting his chance to make a name in history by scoring hat-trick. The possibilities of Modi's return will be debated in terms of how things span out in Pakistan and also vice versa. In 2014, when Modi became PM for the first time unseating a 'policy paralysis-hit' Manmohan Singh regime; Nawaz Sharif had attended the historic swearing in ceremony of Modi on May 26, 2014 and had set the ball rolling for talks.
But hurdles came from across the border by Pakistan army-inspired terror strikes at Uri and Pathankot. In 2016 September, Modi's 'New India' carried out a surgical strike.
After Pulwama terror strike in Kashmir on Feb 14, 2019; India responded by Balakot aerial strike. The article in 'Dawn' newspaper also says that India "used an aerial strike package to bomb a target in mainland Pakistan". Nevertheless, the Pakistani establishment was caught off guard and tension had mounted. But in the ultimate, the supposed polarisation in favour of Modi -- presenting himself to voters in 2019 as a proponent of a strong and a decisive 'New India/Bharat' - brought back Modi to power.
Now the Modi government matters internationally and all said and done, Pakistan is standing in a corner 'cornered' and also isolated ! The helpless-spirited article in 'Dawn' by Ejaz Haider (published November 5, 2023) says ----
"While the world grapples with the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War, and now the asymmetrical, murderous war in Gaza, attention has largely shifted away from South Asia. But here, the modernisation of nuclear and missile arsenals in the near-absence of any dialogue framework between India and Pakistan and unresolved disputes between them makes the region vulnerable to extremely dangerous crises.
The situation is further complicated by domestic developments in India, which has been ruled for the last nine years by a right-wing government that is not only eyeing to win the 2024 elections, but is on record with its statements of intent to aggress against Pakistan."
Islamabad will have their own reasons to be nervous about the changing geo-politics and geo-strategic. Post Hamas attack on Oct 7, 2023, PM Modi has backed Israel.
New Delhi today matters a lot to the US and even players like Russia. India has established good working relations with Australia and Japan -- and these two countries with India and the US are part of a Quad. Another crucially important regional platform I2U2 -- comprising - India, Israel, the US and the UAE has emerged and it is another gamechanger development.
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| Snap: 'Times of Israel' |
Pakistan has its own security related issues on the eve of general elections. Recently, 17 Pakistani security personnel were killed in different militant attacks in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Militants also attacked a training base of the Pakistan Air Force in Punjab.
"Given the sharp polarization and volatility in Pakistani politics, the risk of violence on election day and in the weeks leading up to it is considerable," Kugelman said, according to Nikkei.com.
A security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that security challenges exist but that the establishment is confident they will be manageable. More broadly, the question is who will represent the key parties and whether Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will have any shot at winning.
"There is no chance that the elections will be fair and free and a level playing field will be provided to all political parties," says Pakistan-based analyst Asad Toor.
Nawaz Sharif though has a strong support base, there are chances of his 'secret deals' with the military.
Sharif, once a foe of the generals, returned amid fanfare, with thousands of his supporters chanting at a rally, ‘Take charge again, save Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif".
True, Pakistan is no stranger to such political somersaults, where politicians join hands with the generals to tackle their opponents and make their path to power smoother, only to be laid down by the military.
Mr. Sharif himself has done this thrice. So, Pakistan is back to the past when Mr. Sharif returns to the country, probably in an understanding with the generals, ahead of the general elections.
He wants power and the generals want to sideline their new foe, Imran Khan. It is the proverbial marriage of convenience.
Born: 21 September 1988, Bilawal Bhutto is just 35 years old. He has already been his country's Foreign Minister; and perhaps a section of Pakistani voters and importantly his party PPP will keep a lot of hopes on Bhutto, whose mother Benazir and grand papa, Z A Bhutto have ruled Pakistan.
The electoral politics may boil down between PPP of Bhutto-Zardari leadership and Nawaz Sharif's party. The road map to future lies in the womb of time certainly.
What else is expected?
One version is -- India’s development and modernisation of its nuclear arsenal, coupled with the BJP’s alleged "hostile attitude" towards both Pakistan and China, is greatly impacting Pakistan’s deterrence strategy, regional stability, and the splintered world order. Pakistanis believe India's ‘Order of Battle’ nevertheless remains Pakistan-specific.
In India, for the time being all eyes are on the ongoing assembly polls across central India and in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. According to some, BJP may fail to form government in all five. PM Modi and other top leaders have fanned out in key political constituencies in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh chiefly.
Earlier this year in May, the BJP lost power in the southern state of Karnataka.
The Karnataka polls outcome and also Congress win in Himachal Pradesh changed impressions and given renewed impetus to Congress, which could be reflected in the ongoing provincial elections in November this year.
Congress supporters say a convincing impression has been created that Congress under its ex-president Rahul Gandhi is showing purpose in its actions and could challenge Modi.
The 2024 battle will certainly not be one-sided both in India and also Pakistan.
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