Of course there are certain things about Indian politics; and they go without stating.
Since the British left, politics in India has mainly centered around the Congress party, which ruled the country for a total 52 years with the odd interval.
It was a dominance that waned in 2014 and the 2019 results perhaps nearly ended it, placing BJP at the center as the new national party. But five years since 2019, the Congress is hoping to bounce back.
At the centre of Indian politics in December 2023 stands the BJP and in the centre of the saffron outfit stands Narendra Modi.
While Rahul Gandhi is the mascot for the Congress, for the Lotus party, its Modi - the man who made a perfect synthesis of Hindu ideology and development.
“People were content with what they got — the gas cylinders, rural houses and toilets and hence we won 2019 polls and we will again 2024 under the leadership of Narendra Modi," says a BJP poll strategist.
Five states those went to polls are Mizoram, where Congress has lost ground and BJP is finding it tough to bloom 'lotus' in the hard rocks. There are two Congress-ruled states Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan has a reputation of changing government every five years.
In 2018, BJP lost power in these two states and hopes to regain hold in Rajasthan notwithstanding disunity in the camp. The saffron party had lost Madhya Pradesh but could wrest power after ensuring defection of Jyotiraditya Scindia. But the BJP has gambled with the same Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the apprehension is he has been overused. In the fifth state of Telangana, the BJP is not a major force to reckon and if Muslim voters decide, the Congress could make a comeback.
A few questions those need to be looked into. Whether the voters are still ready to endorsed Modi’s style of governance ?
How effective can be the Congress’ attempts to project PM Modi as a failure and with nexus with capitalists especially Gujarati industrialist Gautam Adani? Whether, voters are still falling for freebies?
In the last nine years since 2019, Modi and the BJP have repeatedly shown how they abhor 'Nehruvian politics' or what the BJP calls the 'dynasty rule Nehru-Gandhi family'.
Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv Gandhi together headed the government in New Delhi for as many as 37 years. Congressman Manmohan Singh was in power for 10 years between 2004 and 2014; and between 1991 and 1996 - there was another Congress veteran in power - P V Narasimha Rao.
In other words, we may easily conclude that the Indian political history has shed its 'status quo' tag.
Can the Hindutva politics symbolised by Modi and BJP and punctuated with 'Bharat-nationalism' is now securely affirmed ?
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PM Narendra Modi-Bhakts take selfies with a cardboard cut-out of Modi at Kumbh festival in Allahabad in Dec. 2018. |
Between 2014 and November 2023, besides the two parliamentary polls - which Modi won for his party convincingly, the BJP has won many crucial battles. The saffron party's electoral success has many tales from states like Tripura where communists have been ousted in two consecutive polls. In another one-time Left bastion too, the BJP today is a force and the principal opposition party.
It has won difficult states such as Uttar Pradesh in 2017 and 2022 and of course lost Karnataka miserably in May 2023. Even in May 2018, BJP's performance in Karnataka was not all that good.
In other words, Modi's magic could be waning. But it may be still little early to herald real joy for the Congress because landscape shifting for India's biggest parties also mean some regional parties hold their sway in key states such as West Bengal, Telangana, Bihar and also Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
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On the other hand, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi launched a Bharat Jodo Yatra recently. For many Congress supporters, the victory in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh -- though they forget the dismal performance in Gujarat - suggests the party, which has ruled India for the longest time since it gained independence, is finding its feet again.
The Congress is confidence of Muslim support base and is hoping to regain its lost base among Hindu voters by running the extra mile to woo OBC voters.
The Congress Party's victories/good shows in the three Hindu-heartland states - Madhya Pradesh (that is under BJP now), Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh would augur well for its chances of success in the 2024 general elections.
Together, the three states make up 65 of the 543 elected seats in India's parliament. In 2014 when the BJP and its allies swept the national polls, they won over 315 of the 543 seats.
In 2014, the BJP claimed 61 of the 65 seats in these key states. In 2019, Chhattisgarh has 11 seats in total and out of these BJP has 9.
In Madhya Pradesh, BJP won 28 and Congress only one. In Rajasthan, it was clean sweep with 24 seats for the saffron party and one seat (out of 25) had gone to its ally RLP. Thus three states had given BJP -- 62.
In 2019 at the national level, the BJP seats jumped from 282 to 303. The so-called opposition unity could not help the Modi detractors. In 2014, the Index of Opposition Unity was around 65 percent - and still Modi had ousted the UPA. In 2019, the Index of Opposition Unity was around 85 percent but it also resulted
in reverse swing and 'polarisation' in favour of Namo.
Thus the seats tally increased and vote share also jumped from 31 percent to 37 percent.
From the nine states in eastern and southern India, the BJP has 67 and its alliance partners have only 8 making it 75 for NDA.
In total, from BJP's perspective, that means 154 seats are with other parties and this is where the saffron party strategies will have to chalk out innovative
plans to turn the table on their opponents.
"To bring back Narendra Modi as India's Prime Minister for the third time, we have to make a dent in states such as West Bengal and Telangana. Some work is already on and we have to rework strategies in seven other states," a party leader said
But pundits are already predicting that the total number in 2024 will drop for the BJP for sure by perhaps 30 to 40 seats at least.
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Some analysts say the Congress's fortunes could be due for a reversal as the public have grown increasingly 'tired' of Modi's rhetoric, machinations and manipulations.
The BJP's winning spree in several states has been 'allegedly' attributed to political manipulation, smart electoral management, including the use of "money power" to engineer the defections of MPs from other parties.
The Congress camp admits about 'Modi's popularity' but says much of which is built on hyperbole. Modi is in competition against his own image, is a refrain.
But that is now could be jeopardy as opposition have formed an alliance and trying to rail against the BJP-led regime for a host of social ills, with farmers still mired in dire straits, unemployment continuing to rise, and the economy not showing any sign of a turnaround.
"India is suffering from a choked cash flow," says a BJP critic.
True, Modi won the elections on the plank of building a Hindu-dominant society. As such, it came as little surprise he won the Hindu vote. He will be trying the same again in 2024.
But the opposition leaders say "Hindus also need jobs" and in that sense, Modi has not delivered. However, many in the BJP say the NDA regime has deleivered on toilets, good roads and drastic drop in corruption.
ends
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