It's a 'new Myanmar' now and it offers crucial lessons to learn

"Problem of one state in northeast India need not be confused with challenges of another" 

New Delhi

Myanmar is in turmoil. It is also a new country in more ways than one -- unlike what it used to be in the 1990s and even during the first decade of the new century.

The big picture message emerging from Myanmar has now left strategic experts and policy makers in neighbouring countries perplexed. Both Asian elder brothers - India and China - fall under this category.

In many ways, old calculations might no longer work and hence there is a need to take a closer look at certain things strategically and also what goes in domestic power politics in Myanmar. The continued violence could lead to movements of people and even China is getting wary.

Myanmar protesters in front of the Chinese embassy in Yangon after the February 1, 2021, coup

Closer home in Manipur, some problems are rightly attributed to the changing dynamics in Manipur. One message that has emerged is the growing decline in magical influence of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Once in power, analysts say, the so-called pro-democracy icon Suu Kyi had disappointed her admirers on her diluted stance against the military rulers and even their genocidal campaign. A few months back, the Myanmar's military junta could realise this when they played up their usual 'Suu Kyi card' and made her appeal for peace. The ethnic groups have not listened to her the way the military generals had expected. 

"To outsiders, the conflict in Myanmar seems immensely complex. But to people living inside the country, the moral dimension of the struggle is as clear....People of every walk of life, of every ethnicity and regional origin, and every class and gender identity, are united against their common enemy - a military that serves only itself," says an edit in 'Myanmar Now'.

This actually sums up the untold story of the country to a large extent. Hence, authorities in India need to try to study things in details.

It's a problem of the people of Myanmar and they must be allowed to decide the course of corrective steps. The decline in influence of Suu Kyi is a telling story that someone cannot take the faceless common people for granted all times to come.

This is a lesson that ought to be drawn in the context various militant groups operating in the northeast India as well as the government authorities. The violence of 2023 in Manipur is a pointer. In Myanmar, what we have is a virtual war -- but this is also a war that neither side can win. 

There is need for a 'genuine analysis' of what has caused the never-ending civil wars and how the intensity has increased manifold since 2021 coup.

This issue is at the heart of the problem and should be addressed objectively. Indian government wants dialogue and rightly so. But the dialogues and analyses can be done only by the people of Myanmar themselves. China has tried to arm both sides - more often the junta and at times certain resistance forces.

Apparently it has burnt its fingers and hence is now more cautious. The moral of the lesson is if outsiders want to play a role, they should refrain from giving bad advice and that too based on poor insights. 

Analysts in Delhi see some of the issues in northeast typically from that prism. New Delhi wants peace in all the northeastern states and along the borders. But it also wants local factors to dominate the proceedings.

It wants 'local' voice at the micro level. The problem of one state should not be confused with the problems and challenges of another state, they say.

The youths in the northeast India ought to become more pragmatic. Probably they already are. This pragmatism does not apply being typically selfish. 

The youths need to integrate into the life of a big nation. In the changing dynamics, India is an emerging player and even arch rival China appreciates that. The RIC - Russia, India, China as a bloc is a telling testimony. 

ends