He has the right knack of playing up the triumph of experience and in the ultimate these do matter a lot.
It is also well known that Narendra Modi makes a right synthesis of Development and his pro-Hindutva cards. These make lethal combo in terms of penetrating voters' mind.
Importantly for millions of Indians and faceless voters, the Prime Minister also said India should crush the “termite” of corruption and nepotism, follow an “India First” mantra.
He says the people ought to ensure that in speech and in conduct, they should not do anything that could lower a woman’s dignity.
Modi believes rather firmly that the world’s view of India was changing and it was looking towards Bharat, that is India, to help resolve global issues. This is 'new India'... and as many critics and admirers say Modi keeps a cache of handy tricks to constantly refurbish his image as the 'great leader' that possibly independent Bharat never had. Over to 2024; and he expects to draw electoral dividends.
Even critics say Modi's electoral strategies pushed religiously by his friend and Home Minister Amit Shah have generally mostly outfoxed the opposition in general sense of the term. Assembly elections are around in key states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Put together these three states account for 65 seats. In 2018 assembly polls, Modi and BJP had lost power in all three but a few months later there was role reversal and the saffron party swept.
Out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, the BJP could win as many as 24. Out of 11 in Chhattisgarh, the Lotus party could pick up 9 and in Madhya Pradesh, Modi-led party won 28 and left only one for the Congress. Hence, pro-BJP analysts say nothing much has changed on ground and even if BJP loses all three three states in November polls; things will be different in April-May 2024.
About 2019 polls, there was another crucial takeaway. Former Chief Ministers to lose in the elections were H D Deve Gowda - Karnataka (Tumkur) JD(S), Sheila Dikshit - Delhi (North East Delhi) Congress, Digvijaya Singh - Madhya Pradesh (Bhopal) Congress, Sushil Kumar Shinde - Maharashtra (Solapur) Congress, Ashok Chavan - Maharashtra (Nanded) Congress, Harish Rawat - Uttarakhand (Nainital–Udhamsingh Nagar) Congress,
.......Bhupinder Singh Hooda - Haryana (Sonipat) Congress, M Veerappa Moily - Karnataka (Chikkballapur) Congress, Mukul Sangma - Meghalaya (Tura) Congress, Nabam Tuki - Arunachal Pradesh (Arunachal West) Congress, Shibu Soren - Jharkhand (Dumka) JMM, Jitan Ram Manjhi - Bihar (Gaya) HAM, Babu Lal Marandi - Jharkhand (Kodarma) JVM(P) and Ms Mehbooba Mufti - Jammu and Kashmir (Anantnag) PDP.
Modi and BJP poll strategists also know how to keep their support base intact. From time to time the saffron party leaders and the PM himself would take steps or organise programmes such as "commemorating the 75th anniversary of independence by hoisting tri-colour (orange, white and green national flags) at their homes and businesses for three days in 2022 as part of a government campaign of awakening the spirit of patriotism in every heart.
Then comes pro-Hindutva initiatives. On 22nd January, 2024, the grand Ram temple will be formally launched at Ayodhya. This has been BJP's original electoral promise, and rivals always mocked that the saffron party leaders would never be able to deliver on this pledge. Now it's a reality and Ayodhya is going to be perhaps the largest religious pilgrim centre for Hindus and others globally.
His party has also delivered on Art 370 by abrogating it and several state governments under BJP have taken steps to enact Uniform Civil Code. "His (Modi's) major victory as chief minister of Gujarat and his stunning wins in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019 could not be possible without polarising events that gave him a handle to manipulate public opinion, a craft at which he excels," wrote Jawed Naqvi for Pakistani newspaper 'Dawn' in August this year.
Modi's detractors also say the 2013-2014 Muzaffarnagar communal violence also had helped BJP in the general elections those ultimately ousted the Congress party.
But the party strategists say people of India do vote for Modi and BJP elections after elections as the delivery level is very high vis-a-vis governance like good roads, toilets, gas cylinders and even vaccines during Covid19 crisis.
In terms of study of Indian elections; the Congress party, which was in power since 2004 was ousted in 2014. In the 67 years between 1947 and 2014, the Congress has been in power for all barring only 18 years. And now since 2014, Modi is in power giving the Congress party a real run for money.
The significance of 2014 win was humongous. Though a BJP win was expected, few actually could predict the scale of a crushing victory. For 25 years (before 2014), India was governed by coalitions including six years of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and 10 years of Manmohan Singh but the size of Modi's mandate (2014) simply means he would be in a commanding position and could set his own agenda.
Five years later in 2019, the mandate was enhanced and hence Modi was able to deliver even difficult electoral promises such as abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.
Now; what will happen in 2024? The answer may lie in the womb of time; and the general refrain is it is 'advantage' Modi.
From the Opposition perspective of course, as they put it -- everyone’s sights are thus firmly on a united campaign to defeat Modi. It is certainly easier said than done.
Modi, who has been dogged by accusations of sectarian prejudice, has said in the past: "To run the country we need to take everyone with us, all together and I seek your blessings to succeed in this endeavour...the only solution to every problem is [economic] development – without which India's destiny will not change".
Like a true dream merchant vis-a-vis forward looking Indian youth, he also says:
“The extent of participation in our G20 presidency has been unprecedented and the openness of participants has been unparalleled. I am confident that this will lead to success, enabled by the contributions of all countries. India and India’s G20 will act as a catalytic agent for the new global order”.
No comments:
Post a Comment