Importance of AAP is linked to 'un-importance' of Congress and hence if Kejriwal goes to jail; the bigger Opposition INDI Alliance politics could be impacted

The formation of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) under Arvind Kejriwal from the crucible of Anna Hazare-led anti-corruption crusade in November 2012 had generated frightening expectations from all sections of people – including Kingfisher Airlines staff, aggrieved housewives, workers of Delhi Transport corporation, teachers and others.

Initial surveys in first 10 days of January 2013 suggested that Kejriwal’s outfit could win as many as 5 out of 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi itself. There was also a talk at least in terms of perception that Kejriwal has/had joined the big league of Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi as ‘probable’ PM candidates for the 2014 general elections. Personally he grew 'over ambitious' and filed nomination papers from Varanasi to take on BJP's powerful PM-candidate Narendra Modi. He was trounced miserably with egg on the face. The BJP also sailed home in all seven constituencies for Parliament from Delhi.

Now, the AAP stands as an outright corruption-hit party. Of course, there is a consolation factor working that there is political vendetta against Kejriwal and his party colleagues such as Manish Sisodia from the Modi regime. His detractors in Congress could be rejoicing in silence over the fact that he has been cornered and could face arrest from the ED over liquor scam.

But it is also true that the AAP's welfare agenda or freebies (of water and power) and good works on education and health, has forced other parties to ape the AAP agenda and promise similar freebies in their manifestos. Not surprisingly, the Congress benefited by such promises in Karnataka. 

No doubt, governance cannot run on bad economy, but Indian neta class has been generally guided by trajectories what gave them the votes. 

BJP leaders know the the party AAP can continue to keep them 'worried' than other regional parties as Kejriwal could win assembly elections in Delhi in two consecutive polls - 2015 and 2020. Of course, BJP swept all seven seats both in 2014 and 2019.  The AAP has also acquired a national party status within a matter of a decade's time and could capture power in politically important state of Punjab. 

The AAP has made deeper penetration in Goa and Gujarat. One of the states it is now eyeing is Haryana, Kejriwal’s home state.  In Gujarat, it has harmed the Congress most and as understood by many it grew up in Punjab also at the cost of Congress.  But Kejriwal has kept his party's politics focused on anti-Congress and also anti-BJP stances. It has a soft Hindutva appeal and Kejrwal was the first leader among the opposition leaders to welcome abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.

In 2023 assembly polls, AAP seems to matter in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has nominated four candidates for Mizoram polls. Voting is over in the northeastern state. 

 

AAP Nagaland chief Asu Keyho, a former legislator, was one of the star campaigners in Mizoram. "We might have fielded only four candidates.....because we came into Mizoram only recently. But our striking rate will be the highest," Asu told this journalist. 

But there are factors which are going against Kejriwal -- whether his party colleagues like it or not. "Kejriwal’s own squeaky clean image has taken a beating following revelations regarding the Rs 44 crore renovation of the CM’s house in Delhi," says an opinion piece in 'The Indian Express'.

Observers also say the mythical believe that Aam Admi phenomenon is for the first time in the country is incorrect. The states like Maharashtra and Assam have experienced the same. In the backyards of northeast, they say, people of Assam had reposed such ‘faith’ in Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in 1980s when former students rode the popularity wave close on the heels of the famous Assam Accord signed by the then Rajiv Gandhi government in 1985. 

In retrospect AGP was a result of a six-year-long Assam agitation led by AASU against illegal infiltration of foreigners from Bangladesh. In the case of Delhi, AAP is a part of culmination of anti-corruption crusade. In both the cases, the expectations from the neo-leaders are (or were) frightening. 

Like Arvind Kejriwal and his refreshing ideas, in Assam, it was a soft-spoken Prafulla Kumar Mahanta (and then also a bachelor) who took over the reins of the state as the country’s ‘youngest chief minister’. But in Assam, the AGP failed after there was huge corruption over cushy rooms and air conditioners.

Therefore, AAP will do well to learn something from the AGP experience. 

Having said these, we now come to real issues, many say, the Kejriwal regime is otherwise expected to address. Late BJP leader Arun Jaitley had raised the bogey of some match-fixing between AAP and Congress in 2013 itself. 

“The AAP is trying to alter the corruption agenda. There is no reference to corruption allegations which can embarrass the Congress. The CWG scam, the 2G spectrum allocation, Coal block allocation or corruption of the Sheila Dikshit government are not mentioned by it. It is deflecting the attention to petty corruption," Jaitley had said. 

Now real politics is on play. The BJP leaders know discrediting AAP on the issue of corruption will steal away all limelight from the outfit. At the same time, in some states AAP has made BJP's win easier like in Gujarat. This is because AAP actually eats up the vote share of Congress party only. So in more ways than one, the AAP can be a useful tool for Modi to achieve Congress mukt Bharat.  

"Kejriwal is weighing his options. On the one hand, he skipped the ED’s summons to question him in the Delhi liquor policy case, and described it as political vendetta by the BJP. On the other hand, he rushed off to Madhya Pradesh to campaign for his party in the Assembly elections – a campaign that will only help the BJP as the AAP is expected to be a spoiler for the Congress in all the Assembly segments where it has fielded candidates in the tightly fought state," writes columnist Neerja Choudhry for 'The Indian Express'.  

In February 2020, the Delhi election mandate had given the traditional Modi-bashers and the secular brigade a plenty of reasons to cheer. As one analyses the poll results and tries to look at things those will unfold, it may not be wrong to suggest that no one has been a bigger cheerleader for Arvind Kejriwal-led outfit than the Congress party itself.

But the fact of the matter is the Congress vote share has dropped to 4.3 – a sharp decline from 8 per cent it had polled in 2015. In between 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 2020; February 7, assembly polls – the Congress has scored zero as many as four times – 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections and assembly polls in 2015 and 2020.

The marginalisation of Congress actually has made AAP’s task easier. 

The irony is the Muslim voters were helplessly drawn towards Kejriwal’s party and thus nominal increase in BJP’s vote share from around 32 per cent to 38.5 now could not save the day for Amit Shah’s and hardliner style of campaigning focusing on Narendra Modi as the sole vote-getter and hyped ‘nationalism’ as the election issue. 

The mandate proves – people in Delhi were more concerned about free electricity and free water and semblance of good governance they saw under Kejriwal.

A question going round the town – - Can Kejriwal now still dream of taking on the unassailable Modi-Shah duo at the national level; and that too possibly from the jail? 

Punjab Minister Bains, Nagaland AAP chief Asu  Keyho in Mizoram