The Bigger Issue in Assam is whether Himanta Biswa Sarma will continue in office after May 4 vote count and if so for how long !!
It is generally presumed that a powerful section of the BJP central leadership is unhappy with the manner Himanta has conducted himself especially last few months in the run up to the elections. A powerful leader reportedly saved the day for him last year when almost dice was cast for his replacement.
Multiple surveys - as expected - have predicted a strong lead for the ruling NDA in Assam, with high voter turnout adding to expectations ahead of May 4 counting.
Axis My India forecast a sweeping 88 to 100 seats for the BJP and its allies, well above the majority mark of 64, while giving the Congress-led alliance 24 to 36 seats.
The People’s Pulse says 68 to 72 seats for the NDA and 22 to 26 for the opposition.
The issue in Assam is hardly about Congress prospects of recovery. The grand old party had advantages even by September 2025; but it could now retain hold over socio-political developments. On the other hand, Himanta Biswa Sarma, a Congressman himself, played some of his cards pretty well.
The BJP was successful in projecting the Congress as a Muslim and even to a large extent an infiltrator-friendly party.
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| A group of Assame women Hindu devotees at Margherita |
Congress just stole Defeat
from jaws of victory? – ‘Assam Model’
One may say elections in Assam, like the rest of India, hinge on the will and vigilance of the people. In 2026 too, voters once again held the ultimate power, pressed the EVM on April 9th.
But politics is more than just the conscience, in Assam often it’s a lot about narratives and perception.
Till September-October 2025, everyone thought Congress is in a striking distance to power in Assam. In more ways than one, the BJP looked on defensive and the chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma looked clueless how to handle the 10-year-old anti-incumbency.
In 2025, the mysterious death of popular singer Zubeen Garg added more pressure on the chief minister. But within weeks, the BJP leadership took corrective steps and on the other hand, the Congress indulged in numerous mistakes.
In the ultimate two eminent Congress leaders Bhupen Borah and Pradyut Bordoloi quit Congress and also contested assembly elections on BJP tickets. Borah from Bihpuria and former MP Pradyut Bordoloi from Dispur assembly segment.
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| Former CM Sarbananda Sonowal |
But what is important now is to await BJP high command's final green flag for another term as chief minister for Himanta. We do not suggest Sonowal, BJP's first CM who came to power in 2016, will be brought back. But the debate is perhaps on.
Possible angles:
Himanta has handled politics well. But there have been unnecessary issues related to his wife's alleged influence in the corridors of power. Reportedly, even Sanghparivar fountainhead has gauged certain factors and have shared their perception with the right people.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is himself image conscious. However, Amit Shah may still back Himanta but he too would not go very far if any discreet message emerges from the PMO.
PM may not like the manner an unwarranted controversy has been kicked off over the defamation case and possible arrest of Congress leader Pawan Khera.
In the Supreme Court, Khera's counsel Abhishekmanu Singhvi has described CM Himanta as a "constitutional cowboy". Ever since the controversy has been generated following baseless charges made against Himanta's wife; the chief minister has treated the matter "personally" and mostly for no reason.
Himanta has given interviews even stating that after May 4-5 after the vote count; he would even make Guwahati Police Commissioner accountable for not arresting Khera.
All these do not speak good about a chief minister in office. PM Modi would never back any one in constitutional position behaving in such manners.
But, a lot could possibly depend on Bengal outcome. If Mamata Banerjee's exit is final and decisive with a comfortable majority for the BJP; the high command may opt for an experiment in Assam.
A powerful BJP government in Kolkata and as states such as Bihar and Odisha already in its kitty, the BJP central leadership try out a low-profile individual as new chief minister in Assam.
The focus of that new chief minister will be "performance" ... no media scoring of brownie points or not to go mad after arresting a political rival.
Of course, a cabinet reshuffle is not ruled out within a month or so that the stage is set for BJP's next round of electoral fray in crucial states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Manipur ... along side Goa and Uttarakhand.
ends
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