"Jodi paren, vote ta amay deben (If you can, please vote for me)," Mamata Banerjee said betraying unusual frail in her voice. Was it a deliberate strategy for an aging Mamata - who grew up in and around this constituency nurturing her eventful career.
People or her party's campaign line has been well focused - calling her Ghorer Meye (daughter of own courtyard). Things should have been earlier -- like it has been all along since 2011. But 2026 is a different battle.
The BJP did not try political gimmick by fielding any celebrity. They banked on a serious contender - Leader of the opposition in the present assembly Suvendu Adhikari - moreover someone who has made Mamata taste defeat in Nandigram in 2021.
Certain things started working against Mamata from the beginning. The electorate here offer a mixed and real-time cosmopolitan demography.
This is what the Lotus party is now banking on.
There are substantial Gujaratis, Punjabis and Marwaris. There are also Odiya people (from neighbouring Odisha). These communities make about 40 per cent of voters.
My experience with Bhababipur goes back to 1990s - when my brother used to stay in a guest house - 'Maharashtra Bhavan'. His room/mess mates were from Bihar and Rajasthan. The food served here was a mixed lot. Not typically Bangla delicacies and the manager and most guest house staff were either from Odisha, Bihar and Rajasthan.
Of course, like the rest of Bengal, Bhabanipur too was a Marxist bastion then. But the cosmopolitan nature of the segment would always make it different and unique.
On that score - it remains where only one slogan 'Ghorer Meye' may not work. The BJP had planned up well. They drew specific strategies to woo --
42-44 % of Bengali Hindus, 35% of non-Bengali Hindus,
and nearly 25-28 % of Muslims, along with migrants from Bihar, Odisha, and Jharkhand.
The Trinamool Congress was over confident initially. But as campaigning stepped up and on one occasion Mamata Banerjee left the stage - saying the BJP sloganeering about 100 metres away was disturbing her - the state's ruling party realised things could be difficult.
Thus, the TMC also intensified efforts trying to offset the BJP's advantage within the seat's Gujrati, Punjabi and Marwari communities.
Mamata's trusted aide and Sickular face Firad Hakim, Kolkata's mayor, started meeting community leaders from each separate groups. But there are issues - which the BJP has already exploited ... it seems.
Mamata's repeated rhetoric against "outsiders" have left a section of people in this segment aggrieved and hence they may vote in favour of Suvendu Adhikari.
Mamata Banerjee herself has led multiple rallies in Bhabanipur and padyatras, including one on April 25 from Sambhunath Pandit Street to Kalighat Road Crossing and another on April 26 covering a one-km stretch from Lansdown Crossing to Kalighat Fire Services Station.
However, local BJP leaders say -- the foot march by Mamata did not yield expected outcome. They even claim that numerous times, Mamata was overheard asking her security people "odike lok acchey .. do we have more people ahead".
Moreover, the TMC leaders have been trying to visit every home three times if necessary. It can be different teams calling them on.
For their part the faceless BJP and RSS footsoldiers have been working in the constituency and a few more in Kolkata city for over a year now. The BJP/RSS carried out multiple meetings, informal family gathering and even surveys in Bhabanipur to break down the caste and community arithmetic, and their issues.
Accordingly, poll strategies were drawn out and even the decision on Suvendu Adhikari was taken based on feedback from these meetings.
As a result, the BJP war room had a "fair idea" where the Bengali-speaking voters are dominant, the areas where Muslims have the edge and where the non-Bengali traders hold sway.
"We have tweaked the campaign strategy for each of these zones accordingly," said a local leader.
"We have tasted droplets of blood ...," say BJP campaign strategists. And they have good reasons to say so.
In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, party veteran Tathagata Roy had temporarily edged past Trinamool Congress nominee Subrata Bakshi by a narrow margin of 176 votes in the contest for the Kolkata Dakshin seat, with most of the BJP's votes coming from Bhabanipur.
Secondly, the Trinamool’s lead margin in the Bhabanipur Assembly segment in 2024 Lok Sabha polls came down to 8,297 votes.
In other words, the tradition Mamata bastion could be breached if played well.
Everything said and done -- may be writing is coming on the wall or it's playing a sympathy-card.
Kartik Banerjee looks tired and under stress.
“There is uncertainty,” Kartik, a younger sibling of Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, told The Telegraph Online sitting at his Kalighat Road office on Monday.
A number of enthusiastic BJP karyakartas have welcomed the statement saying - "Khela to hoe gechhey (The game is then over in our favour)".
Suvendu did not shy off .. and exuding confidence, he told TV journalists:
"We will have bumper voting ... over 95 per cent people will vote. Earlier only Muslims used to vote (he meant TMC supporters), this time Hindus will vote. Pata chal jaega".
Taunting Mamata, he also said : "After SIR ... Mamata's core voters have come down to 30,000 and Sanatani voters now is over 1.25 lakh".
ends
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